Buster Olney weblog: May 31st

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The Straightshooter
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Twins, White Sox sitting pretty
The Boston Red Sox pulled out of the Yankee Stadium driveway feeling pretty good about themselves late Sunday night, having put together about 25,242 hits and runs in the last two games of their series against New York and stopping a slide that started in Toronto.

But for the Red Sox, and for every other contender in the American League East, the pressure is and will continue to be unrelenting. Boston began a four-game series against the first-place Orioles on Monday, and after that, the Red Sox have three games versus the Angels and then three against the Cardinals.

And as incredible as it might seem, the Red Sox began Monday's game with the sixth-best record in the AL -- behind the White Sox, Orioles, Angels, Rangers and Twins. The Yankees were tied for the seventh-best record, with the Toronto Blue Jays, and it appears they will have to climb over the other AL East teams in their division if they're going to make the playoffs.

The depth of the AL East could make it more likely that the wild card will come out of either the Central or the West, simply because the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays are facing a summer in which they're going to beat the heck out of each other. This is reflected in the difficulty of schedule for the rest of the season. Consider the number of games the AL contenders have against teams with records of .500 or better the rest of the year (numbers are through Sunday's games).

1. Yankees, 73
2. Angels, 70
3. Boston, 69
4. Baltimore, 65
5. Texas, 61
6. Toronto, 60
7. White Sox, 55
8. Minnesota, 50

The Twins and the White Sox would appear to have an enormous scheduling advantage because they play in a weaker division. Think of it as a horse race: The AL Central teams effectively will be running on a smooth track, while the AL East teams, slugging it out against each other, will be running in mud.

The Angels have an immediate challenge: Their next 28 games -- every game through the end of June -- will be against a team with a .500 record or better. After that, exactly half of their games are against teams with records currently under .500; if they can hang in near the top of the division over the next month, they will be in good position.

Angels sign Jered Weaver
• After months of rough negotiations, Los Angeles locked up last year's top pick, Jered Weaver; similarly, the Diamondbacks signed No. 1 pick Stephen Drew. Both were represented by Scott Boras. But before those deals were made, the Angels lost a wrenching game in Chicago. And Vladimir Guerrero's optimism about a quick return from his shoulder injury seems to be fading.

• Watched a lot of the Red Sox game against the Orioles, and as Rick Sutcliffe pointed out in his role as analyst, Boston pitcher Bronson Arroyo became absolutely predictable in the first innings. He couldn't throw his fastball for strikes – almost literally could not throw it for strikes, at all – and so the Baltimore hitters could take their hacks knowing almost precisely when Arroyo had to throw a breaking ball. The count was full when David Newhan batted, the bases were loaded, three runs already were in for the Orioles. Of course he was going to throw a breaking ball, and when Arroyo released the slider, Newhan clubbed it for a grand slam. ... The Red Sox did get good news about Curt Schilling, who is thinking he might be back sometime before the All-Star break. You can bet this: The Red Sox are going to be very cautious and very deliberate in his rehabilitation, because there is not enough time for another major setback. ... It was conventional wisdom at the time of the Sidney Ponson deal two years ago that the Orioles had done well for themselves. But in the midst of this notebook – which leads with a Sammy Sosa feature – is the news that Baltimore no longer has anybody to show for that trade. ... Eric Dubose is pitching well in Class AA and is prepping for a return.

• Over the next two months, the Phillies will play 35 of 48 games at home, as Todd Zolecki writes. They expect to be in the thick of contention after that. If not, they might be open for business, marketing players.

• Mike Lupica writes that the Yankees still need Roger Clemens. To repeat: The only way it would happen is if a series of dominos fell: 1. Clemens directly lobbies Houston owner Drayton McLane for a trade; 2. Clemens promises McLane he'll come back and pitch for the Astros in 2006; 3. The Yankees agree to trade for Clemens, with a willingness to a bill of about $12 million – in salary, the $3 million contractual kicker, and in luxury tax – for the last two months; 4. The Yankees promise to waive their rights to offer Clemens arbitration and get a draft pick in return, freeing him to return to Houston; 5. The Yankees agree to trade a good prospect, or maybe two, to get Clemens. Those are a lot of hurdles to cross.

• The Dodgers have often scrambled for starting pitching this year. Wilson Alvarez wonders if he deserves to start, after losing to the Cubs (http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~28541~2896312,00.html). Odalis Perez might be back soon.

• Jamie Moyer sets a club record for victories, and moves to within three of 200 for his career, beating Toronto. Miguel Olivio, the big piece landed in the trade for Freddy Garcia last year, is headed to the minor leagues.

• Mike Cameron is thriving for the Mets, as Lisa Olson writes.

• The Diamondbacks are looking at a summer of contention, after last year's debacle.

• The Marlins can't handle the Pirates. Strange, but true.

• The Astros collapsed at the end of their loss to Cincinnati Monday, as Brian McTaggart explains. As well as Clemens has pitched, he's on pace for fewer than 10 victories.

• Scott Kazmir pitched great against Oakland Monday, but a reliever who may become major trade bait in the next two months blew Kazmir's lead and the Athletics ended their losing streak. ... As the rumor sharks start circling Oakland manager Ken Macha, Athletics GM Billy Beane says this is a time for patience. But Keith Ginter has run out of time.

• The Rangers are hitting a ton of homers, they're getting good starting pitching – and they're catching the ball well, as Kathleen O'Brien writes.

• A controversial call helps the Nationals beat the Braves. Washington is getting some help back from the disabled list this week.

• The Rockies' Todd Helton is not in a forgiving mood. He probably felt worse, after the Rockies lost another game, to the Cardinals.

• Frank Thomas is back and says he wants to be a good teammate. Watched part of the game and this is clear: He's swinging well, and he can help the White Sox at the plate. ... By the way, Ozzie Guillen is going to be around for a long, long time.

• Rickie Weeks's manager is predicting some big things for the Brewers' prospect, beyond his ability to steal bases.

• You can't stop the Padres. You can only hope to contain them, as the Brewers learned first-hand, in extra innings. As reported in this notebook, the Padres may be without third baseman Sean Burroughs for a few more days.
posted: May 31, 2005 6:40:58 AM PDT | Feedback
 

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