I need a lesson in wagering, please advise

Holysmoke+ · Jun 2, 2005

I may have fallen into some false thinking here, well according to some that responded to my 2nd half bet tonight.

If the original line in the NBA playoffs is pistons +4.5 and the lines are razor sharp in the playoffs, and I see the Pistons are down 14 at half and are -4 for 2nd half. Now that is like Pistons getting 10 points for the game in my eyes.

So I see that as a big value play and I hit it. Not knee jerk, strictly gauging the play based on the original razor sharp lines.

Ppl are saying that is wrong in the NBA forum

I am no expert and would love to know all the schools of thought here so I don't follow this path if it is wrong.

Guys, chime in here please.

Kiss1 · Jun 2, 2005

Holysmoke said:
I may have fallen into some false thinking here, well according to some that responded to my 2nd half bet tonight.

If the original line in the NBA playoffs is pistons +4.5 and the lines are razor sharp in the playoffs, and I see the Pistons are down 14 at half and are -4 for 2nd half. Now that is like Pistons getting 10 points for the game in my eyes.

So I see that as a big value play and I hit it. Not knee jerk, strictly gauging the play based on the original razor sharp lines.

Ppl are saying that is wrong in the NBA forum

I am no expert and would love to know all the schools of thought here so I don't follow this path if it is wrong.

Guys, chime in here please.

Based on what you witnessed by watching the first half you should put a "value" number in your mind for the second half before you shop numbers.

More often than not, especially in these big NBA playoff games the 1/2 time lines will be even sharper than the full game line.

Want some honest advice. Don't bet on the NBA, the bookies own us.

Holysmoke+ · Jun 2, 2005

for a while the bookies were calling the original numbers exactly or within a half point in the playoffs. I did not bet this way in the season, but only the playoffs based on the assumption that the bookies knew way more than I did about the game

Aquatic · Jun 2, 2005

Many do well with the plus plus philosophy on NBA Halftimes meaning if you are plus for the half, meaning leading, and now you are plus points for the second half that you get there more times than not. An exception during the regular season is if a team that might be -9 or better for the game is now down 10 or more at halftime and now all they have to do is win the game. In those games they are playing inferior teams so it's easier than in tighter line games.

Holysmoke+ · Jun 2, 2005

Do you guys believe that the original lines in the NBA playoffs should be thrown out then and not used as a measuring stick when playing 2nd half.

I actually have waited until 2nd half to make bets this way

JackDee · Jun 2, 2005

while no expert in basketball betting or the nba in particular my 2 cents would be that most of the times the initial line is right on the money in predicting the game, and especially spliting the wagers so the book gets their guaranteed juice, but some times its not and once the game in under way us and the books get a better picture and sharper second half lines. I wouldnt have bet the pistons here for example because i wouldn't want to have my money on a team that were struggling in the first half to overcome whatever hole they dug for themselves in the that half, so, i d rather take the better playing team to keep their lead more or less. In any case i didn't see much value either way.

Baker · Jun 3, 2005

Holysmoke-

To date in the playoffs the inital line on sides has shown an average difference of 9.286667 points when compared to the games final score. This includes all 75 games and is calculated where if Team A is a 4 point favorite and wins by 20 the line was off by 16. If this same favorite lost by 10 the line would be off by 14.

I don't think the lines are as accurate as you may think they are, always remember that they are meant only to even the action and not to predict the winner.

Baker

Holysmoke+ · Jun 3, 2005

Baker said:
Holysmoke-

To date in the playoffs the inital line on sides has shown an average difference of 9.286667 points when compared to the games final score. This includes all 75 games and is calculated where if Team A is a 4 point favorite and wins by 20 the line was off by 16. If this same favorite lost by 10 the line would be off by 14.

I don't think the lines are as accurate as you may think they are, always remember that they are meant only to even the action and not to predict the winner.

Baker

good stuff and much appreciated

ClipJoint · Jun 3, 2005

I don't even look at the line...I just find out who Identity has in HUGE BOLD TEXT
and fade the shit out of it!

Just kidding Identity. :103631605

TheBadLieutenant · Jun 3, 2005

I do "OK" with situations like Aquatic said where teams just have to win to cover the 2nd half.Seems to work well when top 25 teams or favorites in general are losing at home at halftime of conference games in NCAA too.I think NBA playoffs would be different story.Basketball has become such a game of "runs" where 20 point leads can be gone in a few minutes-should help us in the situation mentioned-but you have to be able to score & Detroit doesn't have a bunch of consistent scorers.Maybe someone has a program or stats to prove this as I have always wondered if this would win over the long haul betting them blindly.Your theory made sense tonite but I think you have to pick your spots.Regular season games,just needing to win to cover & being the home team would be the criteria I would think needed-at least-to just play blindly though.Great topic as I hope someone smarter than me has the "true" answer.GL

TheBadLieutenant · Jun 3, 2005

I also try to get "ready" when I have a chance to see this situation developing during the regular season as I get a better #-or much lower juice-if I get my play in as soon as 2nd halves come up.That 5-30% extra juice some shops get at halftime buys alot "love" down South.

coconutman · Jun 3, 2005

I have seen crazier runs in NCAAB than NBA. The second halfs are more predictable in collage ball in my opinion.

Holysmoke+ · Jun 3, 2005

I still would appreciate some sharps telling me if this is a bad bet or not.

Many ppl got down on the Pistons to lose by 4.5 or less before game.

At halftime I make a wager at -112 for the Pistons to lose by 10 points or less.

Am I not in a tremendous position? To get 5.5 more points before the game the juice would be outrageous.

Shrink? OF? Fishead? OMT? some others?

this is the way I did it in the NBA playoffs ONLY because of sharp sharp lines.

Please tell me if this is a bad way to bet.

THE SHRINK · Jun 3, 2005

Holysmoke said:
I may have fallen into some false thinking here, well according to some that responded to my 2nd half bet tonight.

If the original line in the NBA playoffs is pistons +4.5 and the lines are razor sharp in the playoffs, and I see the Pistons are down 14 at half and are -4 for 2nd half. Now that is like Pistons getting 10 points for the game in my eyes.

So I see that as a big value play and I hit it. Not knee jerk, strictly gauging the play based on the original razor sharp lines.

Ppl are saying that is wrong in the NBA forum

I am no expert and would love to know all the schools of thought here so I don't follow this path if it is wrong.

Guys, chime in here please.

I believe the reason some say it is WRONG may be that once a team gets that far behind, it gets very tricky to predict with much certainty whether thay can rebound and make it somewhat of a ball game, particularly on the ROAD...

Hafltime bets can be great moneymakers, especially when one watches the game and gets a good feel for the ebb and flow. One must also remember not to use tainted glasses as I have seen so many do...

It is a completely different animal than betting the line on the entire game, and should be treated as such...

One pearl I can offer here is to follow a sudden and fast line move (meaning a Syndicate Bet, not Public).

If the halftime line allows you a couple of extra points than what the SYNDICATE took before the line change, them jumping all over it can pay huge dividends...

THE SHRINK

Holysmoke+ · Jun 3, 2005

thanks Shrink, how can you tell if a syndicate hit it and what line they got?

THE SHRINK · Jun 3, 2005

By following a live line service, such as Don Best, and seeing the exact times certain sports books move their numbers...

If they all do within a couple of minutes, then you can bet your sweet ass, it was due to action from a syndicate...

THE SHRINK

Holysmoke+ · Jun 3, 2005

cool, much appreciated!!! :103631605

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jun 3, 2005

Smoke, I would really have liked that bet in an elimination game vs. game#5. The reason, Motown could and did just go through the motions when they realized game was lost. Down at 14 at the half, when the 1H line was 3 or so, they are underperforming by double digits for the half. With no sense of urgency, knowing they have game #6 next at home, they may not foul at end, nor try to keep it close. I went with the un 2H, and have now gone 5-0 2H this series. I have played the sides, no times, and got burned on game totals. In my opinion the totals in the 2H are the hot spot now. Beleive me, I hop all over the place looking for my hot commodity. Last year I was on fire on sides late. This year on game totals early, and 2H totals now. After a bunch of high scoring Q's, including a 54 point 1Q, the scoring just reverted back to crawl. The 38 point 2Q was a tell, and even though 1H was 92 right on the split for 184 for the game, it appeared to be a dramatic change of flow in 2Q. So I went under 92. Got some nice ev, -.05 and -.07. This just continued with a 41 3Q and a sweet 31 4Q. So I hit the bet with a 20 MOV. The totals are my earners this season, maybe because I have a better feel, or they are just providing so many opportunities. Motown is just playing on again, off again and that is not a team I would want to invest in, guessing on or off. However, it appeared when down by 14 at the H it was an off night, no close game, and no foul and score at end. So far in these Conf Finals I have bet one side, Spurs in game #5. Lately I just watch the first half, and look for a 2H total. There is always pros and cons with everything. The pros of 2H betting, getting idea where team is, what matchups are working, which are not. Also the officiating. A close tightly officiated game, both in Motown, led to 2H overs. Let the teams play, unders. However, except for in progress, you bet it you got it. No hedging. Another difference between side and total on the 2H. As you see, side was adjusted heavy by halftime score. If the total was 10 points off at half, you would basically see the same number either way. Most of the time you will be right around the split of game total, with a point or three added for 2H. That is an advantage I have exploited repeatedly. You were actually shortchnged on your Motown -4, becuase they were a huge nonperformer in 1H. Had you bet Motown 2H before game started, you would have had them as a 2-3 point dog. Are you feeling me smoke? Hope that answers your question.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Dante · Jun 3, 2005

by HolySmoke

I need a lesson in wagering, please advise

ahhhh yeah, What Ofrog said :icon_conf

:smoker2:

Holysmoke+ · Jun 3, 2005

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Smoke, I would really have liked that bet in an elimination game vs. game#5. The reason, Motown could and did just go through the motions when they realized game was lost. Down at 14 at the half, when the 1H line was 3 or so, they are underperforming by double digits for the half. With no sense of urgency, knowing they have game #6 next at home, they may not foul at end, nor try to keep it close. I went with the un 2H, and have now gone 5-0 2H this series. I have played the sides, no times, and got burned on game totals. In my opinion the totals in the 2H are the hot spot now. Beleive me, I hop all over the place looking for my hot commodity. Last year I was on fire on sides late. This year on game totals early, and 2H totals now. After a bunch of high scoring Q's, including a 54 point 1Q, the scoring just reverted back to crawl. The 38 point 2Q was a tell, and even though 1H was 92 right on the split for 184 for the game, it appeared to be a dramatic change of flow in 2Q. So I went under 92. Got some nice ev, -.05 and -.07. This just continued with a 41 3Q and a sweet 31 4Q. So I hit the bet with a 20 MOV. The totals are my earners this season, maybe because I have a better feel, or they are just providing so many opportunities. Motown is just playing on again, off again and that is not a team I would want to invest in, guessing on or off. However, it appeared when down by 14 at the H it was an off night, no close game, and no foul and score at end. So far in these Conf Finals I have bet one side, Spurs in game #5. Lately I just watch the first half, and look for a 2H total. There is always pros and cons with everything. The pros of 2H betting, getting idea where team is, what matchups are working, which are not. Also the officiating. A close tightly officiated game, both in Motown, led to 2H overs. Let the teams play, unders. However, except for in progress, you bet it you got it. No hedging. Another difference between side and total on the 2H. As you see, side was adjusted heavy by halftime score. If the total was 10 points off at half, you would basically see the same number either way. Most of the time you will be right around the split of game total, with a point or three added for 2H. That is an advantage I have exploited repeatedly. You were actually shortchnged on your Motown -4, becuase they were a huge nonperformer in 1H. Had you bet Motown 2H before game started, you would have had them as a 2-3 point dog. Are you feeling me smoke? Hope that answers your question.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

thanks OF, I knew you would help me understand 2nd half betting better.

if you get a chance to post your plays 2nd half tomorrow, I would really like to see it, thanks.