Handicapping or systems

Search

New member
Joined
Apr 3, 2005
Messages
666
Tokens
Just wondering how many of the professionial sports players use gut instincts, etc to determine how to bet. I just read the article on the front page about writing down why you are betting the way you are betting and then re-reading that for years.

Or do most of the consistent winners (ie professionals) follow iron-clad systems. In other words, if this happens, we play. If not, we pass.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy
 

New member
Joined
Nov 23, 2004
Messages
325
Tokens
I woundered that too how many people use systems or just cap the games, Ive never used systems I've always just capped the games.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
Joined
Mar 1, 2002
Messages
42,730
Tokens
The professional will use any tool which gives them an edge. Systems are very popular though and after much data is collected, one can find some interesting angles based off of systems. I posed the question awhile back..If you just follow a system, are you still a handicapper. The guys here answered yes, certainly.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 3, 2005
Messages
666
Tokens
The problem with trying to capitalize on most of the systems I've found in college football is one of two things:

1.) The sample size is too small. It looks lucrative, but there just aren't enough games in the sample to start betting real cash.

or

2.) The sample size is large enough to know that over the course of time, the system will make real money. Problem is, over a 15 year sample, all the real profits came in 2 or 3 seasons. The other seasons were basically break even and there were some really ugly seasons in there too. If you start with small wagers, you can never increase the wager size unless you are down. But if you are down over a three or four year period, then so is your bankroll and upping the wager at that time would be tough. If you play smaller wagers per game and win big in year one, then up the wager for year two, statistically speaking, you are due for some losing seasons. It could get real ugly. On the other hand, if you start out playing large wagers and run into an ugly season early, it could cost you some real money real fast.

That's where I'm at with the systems I have developed. I have some that look great over a small sample and I have some that look ok over a large sample. But none look outstanding over a large sample. In other words, of the systems that I am certain will work over the long haul, none could definitely be counted on to produce winnings in a single season.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
ive been over this thousands of times, the last few years..

I spend countless hours searching for the One great mechanical system, then wind up reverting back to basic capping..

Baseball is great for systems.. In developing the one great system, what would you include..

Id think it would be something with the Underdogs, with no martingale involved.. i would not be against a one-time only double up..

How many times do you guys go over this in your head? play all home dogs, play dogs with better records, play the hotter dog (thats funny)... all attempts at finding the one great mechanical system.. almost like searching for the pot of gold..
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Messages
25,128
Tokens
Actually BWE, I think systems work best in college football. Schedules are made years in advance and are basically the same from year to year. Easier to see when teams let up before hard games, etc.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
First off, forget about systems. Just say to yourself, if this system worked, why is he trying to sell it to me. Books are worth reading as long as they are used as an enrichment to your betting, not a cause.

Unfortunately, like most things in life, getting told something doesnt sink in, its only when you experience it yourself that you take notice. Learning from your mistakes will always be the best teacher, thats why all the smart know-it-alls are old. Its through experience of seeing something over and over that makes you aware of the potential outcomes and pitfalls, an example is, posters talking about Nadal winning the French Open, at 1/6, who cares, certainly not someone who is seriously trying to make money gambling.

I find this Forum, like most, seem to give the impression that there is many Pros on here, from my own experience and others in the game, the truth is, you wouldnt have the time to play around on here, but it is fun. A pro gamblers World is a very insular, selfish one and looking back, a regretable one. Its not said enough on this Forum, but there is a big difference between making your gambling hobby pay ( like I do at the moment) and making a living out of it, people talk of 5% winning, its 1 in 10,000 earns a living.

If theres one big killer for the average punter, then its backing odds-on, this is where the reading books can become dangerous. Betting odds-on can be profitable, but only to the most knowledgeable ( odds wise) and well endowed bank punter, for the rest it is suicide.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 3, 2005
Messages
666
Tokens
++++Baseball is great for systems.. In developing the one great system, what would you include..++++

I am new to baseball, but I would think that after the teams have played about 6 weeks worth of baseball, a guy ought to do pretty well just figuring out a system to bet on teams when the odds are out of line with their win percentage.

For example: Say the White Sox are playing the Indians tonight. White Sox have won 66% of their games, and the Tribe has won only 48%. The books have made the White Sox only a moderate favorite (-121), so take the White Sox. I am probably way off in my thinking, but if I were to invest time trying to find a winning system with baseball, that is probably the first place I would start.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
Well Books, seems you cant be told, I was only bluffing, there is a winning system, I am not going to say, but you can spend the rest of your life searching for it.
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
75,154
Tokens
Horse Racing is rife with systems and guess what - none of them really make money long term, or even short term for that matter.



wil.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 23, 2004
Messages
325
Tokens
If you were gonna try and make a system you'd have to combine a lot of stuff, basicly all the suff you'd look at if you were to cap a game. For baseball you'd have to take overall record, Home/away record, last 10 games record, maybe last 25 games record, record vs that team incorparate the starting pitcher and bullpen in there some how put a certin percentage number on all these things depending on how important you think each is. Then calculate out all the numbers for both teams and then take the line for the game and if the numbers tell you its worth taking this game then take it. But theres always gonna varialbes that you cant put into the system like injurys.
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
i was never talking of buying a system, thats absurd...

I was talking about developing one..

Anyway, id like to know if anyone has the numbers on: Underdogs with better records winning outright, do they win 50% of the time?

4 teams tonight: AZ/LAA/Reds/Twins,, dogs with better records...
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
SSI,

You have been around a long time and it appears you are still searching. Dont get me wrong, I have spent endless hours searching myself years ago. You can get a system that works for so long and thats what sucks you into refining it. Its much better using those wasted hours practicing your Maths and pricing up games etc before the books post, that way you get a good feel for odds. I've said it countless times on here, if people price games up from a bookmaking point of view, they will see a different story unfold, tunnel vision is another big stumbling block for the punter.
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
75,154
Tokens
My 2 cents -

with better records winning outright



SSI I think you need to break that down further to home and away. Just look at teams like the Braves this year, 17-7 at home and 12-17 on the road, making their overall 29-24 record decieving for handicapping purposes.


wil.
 

SSI

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,040
Tokens
thx guys, of course wil, we must look at home and away records... TB and Col are not that bad at home...

winbet, ive wagered since august of 1986... i cant tell you if its easier or harder now, with the advent of the internet.. your point about pricing is well taken..
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
5,412
Tokens
I agree with what the General referred to in that a system is just a way to automate your capping. Some capping is game-specific or day-specific but another (big) part is numbers-specific and so a system is nothing more than automating that part letting the computer do the tedious work. You're still capping because you have to decide which numbers are important and what calculations should be made.
 

The Straightshooter
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
7,118
Tokens
a good system + a few other variables usually work for me (recent form, hot streaks, an especially good home team, banged up opponent, ect). a good system play is useless to me if that team is going thru a bad patch heading into the game.
 

New member
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
75,154
Tokens
hot streaks, an especially good home team, banged up opponent, ect)


All good stats to keep track of, problem is most likely the line will reflect same.


wil.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,637
Messages
13,453,182
Members
99,428
Latest member
ai_algo_capper
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com