Hey Guys.....
Just wanted to pop in here and remind you that after two sets are played there is no refund if Nadal twist his ankle or retires for any raeson. It is a high percentage wager but a gamble all the same. How stupid will you feel if Nadal runs into the net post and has to quit. I make tons of wagers on tennis every month and I have never bet more than $2500 on a match - and that was only once.
It all depends on how much you can afford to lose.....and remember Puerta didn't reach the finals by playing the junior girls.
Good Luck, G
Just wanted to pop in here and remind you that after two sets are played there is no refund if Nadal twist his ankle or retires for any raeson. It is a high percentage wager but a gamble all the same. How stupid will you feel if Nadal runs into the net post and has to quit. I make tons of wagers on tennis every month and I have never bet more than $2500 on a match - and that was only once.
It all depends on how much you can afford to lose.....and remember Puerta didn't reach the finals by playing the junior girls.
Good Luck, G
coconutman said:
Coconut,
Youve posted too much sense in the past for me to fall for that one. However, in case readers do take your words literally, I shall offer some reasons why taking this bet is crazy.
1) Tennis is a very demanding game, more so on sand. The chances of an injury are bigger than people realise. Are you willing to take 1/6 someone who could twist his ankle on any play.
2) The unsettled weather at the moment means a greater chance of showers, which equalises the players. Nadals game is actually enhanced by dry, fast conditions.
3) People with Tennis knowledge will tell you Federer is not at his best at the moment, nor is clay his strong suit. It may surprise people, but Federer was -125 for todays game.
4) When people use the words easy, and its not just on this Forum its being said, alarm bells sound. Books feel the sheep coming and shorten the odds accordingly, there can be nothing better to start the Day than a Mug coming in asking, what price Nadal.
5) This Geezer Nadals taking on is no mug, hes one hell of a fighter, ask Davydenko or Canas. Betting sets 3-0 is just not worth the pain that will ensue.
So there you go, still fancy some 1/6. I on the other hand, shall be getting exceptional value Puerta.:drink:
Winbet
Plenty of books have rules on tennis that the entire match needs to be completed or two sets so the injury risk which is always the biggest concern for a big favorite is a non issue. Those rules were put in place in the last 2 years because of the amount of guys playing early round matches and quitting just so they did the mandatory ranking appearance. Now those rules make it very tough to beat a big favorite since it has to be done by winning 3 sets only. But I agree with you that laying this price in a slam final is a pass.
Plenty of books have rules on tennis that the entire match needs to be completed or two sets so the injury risk which is always the biggest concern for a big favorite is a non issue. Those rules were put in place in the last 2 years because of the amount of guys playing early round matches and quitting just so they did the mandatory ranking appearance. Now those rules make it very tough to beat a big favorite since it has to be done by winning 3 sets only. But I agree with you that laying this price in a slam final is a pass.
Winbet,
I know what you mean, but look at the bright side...good picks like OMT's for example wouldn't be playable after about 5 minutes because everyone would jump on and move the line. As long as the hype artists are distracting the masses, the rest of us can still take advantage of the plays without losing value. What's more, the hype artists actually create good opportunities for us...just wait until all have jumped on their bandwagon and then fade them.
I know what you mean, but look at the bright side...good picks like OMT's for example wouldn't be playable after about 5 minutes because everyone would jump on and move the line. As long as the hype artists are distracting the masses, the rest of us can still take advantage of the plays without losing value. What's more, the hype artists actually create good opportunities for us...just wait until all have jumped on their bandwagon and then fade them.
Winbet thanks for the info.. i just doubled up on Nadal. No i'm kidding here, lets get serious about the injuries. How often do they happen when it comes down to the finals no matter what turf they play on? I don't know but i'm guessing they are very rare. Also Federer was -125 for a reason. Last time these guys faced off Federer almost lost but made a great comeback which Nadal had no answear for.
Nadal will win the match.. i'm not trying to hype anything up but i wouldin't put a dollar on the price at which Nadal stands, i just don't have the bank for a price like that.
Lets drop this Tennis thing and start thinking about tomorrows NBA matchup.\
Nadal will win the match.. i'm not trying to hype anything up but i wouldin't put a dollar on the price at which Nadal stands, i just don't have the bank for a price like that.
Lets drop this Tennis thing and start thinking about tomorrows NBA matchup.\
winbet, i 'm with you with most of what you are saying but bear in mind also that, books shortprice high odd underdogs much more than they do with favourites, and puerta will be no exception, so even if you shop around long and hard, at best you ll get a fair value puerta, not exceptional value. A 1.1 favourite winning means nothing to the book but a 7 means a hell of a lot in terms of risk management and the odds are shortened accordingly. Also bear in mind that most of the public dislikes betting such short odds favourites, as too low for their taste (it's not worth it, i d have to bet so much to get back so little, blah, blah if i had a cent for every time i ve heard that), and is always on the lookout for (what they think are) "value" underdogs. So, pinacle's 1.14 for the spanish wonder kid, for me, is not a negative expectation bet, and i would include it in a small parley of similar low odds. That said, probably the bluntest (as opposed to sharpest, lol) position to take in this much up is the 3-0 to nadal and i think that's were most players will bite (i ll take him at 3-0 at a better price, yeah right), because even the best players can and do lose the odd set.
Its a steep price to pay if you wager on Nadal and as always,don't bet more than you can afford to lose but the bottom line is he will ROLL over this guy and the outcome won't even be close.Federer does not get embarrassed like that often and Nadal will complete the job and EASILY win the French Open.
