New Series Plays With A Change

I am one who believes there is an intangible called luck. Some have it and some don't. I don't consider myself lucky. I feel I win more through skill rather than luck. There are times that I can almost swear I can feel the grim reaper of the gambling gods looking over my shoulder and laughing. If I am at the blackjack table winning and that voice is telling me to leave and I don't, it is almost a sure thing I am going to lose from that point on.

Well it seems like I can feel the grim reaper looking over my shoulder lately. Yesterday I had a golf match in the Colonial, a 4 stroke lead with 4 holes to go and I got a push was all. Ouch!! Things aren't going your way when that happens.

Some of my baseball picks have seemed like good selections. If at some point during the game where if I could increase my bet I would have, then I consider that a good selection. The results have not been winners though, so from that point they are bad selections.

I am going to make a change to my system based on logic and having watched some series play out. I think going into each series that if for example I am playing the under that 2 out of three games will go under. I still think that. I am only going to play two games in the series at most. If I win the first one, I am done. If I lose the first one I will double and play the second one. Win or lose I am done.

The reason is this. Lets say the first two games go over. If they are real close it wouldn't bother me much. But sometimes they have gone over by a considerable amount. The bullpens are used and now become less effect in future games in the series. From a hitting standpoint if you just saw someone last night it is easier to hit against him.

On the flip side if I am playing overs and the first two games are unders, there is a good chance the bullpen is fresh and the hitters may not have seen any of the bullpen. Therefore the bullpen could be more effective.

Game three have lost i believe four in a row and there have only been five of them which is not a big sample size. That performance could be a statistical fluke. They could easily show a profit through out the year. But thinking it out a little has made me decide to make the change for now.

I of course missed a winning series last night. I thought only the national league had new series and I didn't like either of them.

I will try to update my record this weekend.

1.5 Units
White Sox Under
Minnesota Under

1 Unit
Detroit Under
Seattle Under

(I like the Oakland series under also but it already started)

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

i have also done alot of work with this type of system, with sides however.. I am a big believer in only doubling once... the third game is what kills you, you must win at least 8 in a row to make up for 1 loss, when using the third game..

Im in the process now of studying a version of your system,, it seems you pick the unders - many more times than the overs and i understand and agree with your logic... In using this on Totals instead of Sides, you get away from the big juice, that sides can cost you..

best of luck tonight..

It just so happens I am picking unders right now. I have had season where I just picked overs. If the linesmakers drop the lines low enough then it will eventually switch. The nice thing about over is you can win early or late. You never win unders late, you only lose them late.


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

You gonna get down on these plays or do you want me to? Maybe if I get down on them we can get away from your bad luck streak.

Baker make the dough rise!!! Do a round robin with the three that agree with winning sytem det, mn and cleveland all under!!!!


Northern Star

Hi. It seems as if more and more teams are getting close to 500 on o/u there are 9 teams that have strong o either h or a and 9 teams that have strong u either h or a. i use 60% as thedividing line.so about 25% of the teams fall into a slight edge catogory. best teams for this weekeknd is both chicagos as unders. pitt/atl a slight lean to the unders all others are toss ups as far as i am concerned. noticed the comment about not betting 1-2-4 type of thing. one could build a case for just betting 1-1 and going away lot tougher to make up 3 games instead of 2. good luck

SSI said:

i have also done alot of work with this type of system, with sides however.. I am a big believer in only doubling once... the third game is what kills you, you must win at least 8 in a row to make up for 1 loss, when using the third game..

Im in the process now of studying a version of your system,, it seems you pick the unders - many more times than the overs and i understand and agree with your logic... In using this on Totals instead of Sides, you get away from the big juice, that sides can cost you..

best of luck tonight..

Click to expand...

SSI and NS
I play a variation of a system called Series Baseball. One solid rule of this system is to NEVER chase that 3rd game. With Series Baseball the average is around 50% for game 3. So I am with you on the game 3 theory you are adopting. Also, like SSI, I like the idea of getting away from the big juice with sides. Best of luck to both of of you.

SSI, Heart222 and Stilwell: Thanks for the comments, if game three wins at any kind of decent percentage doubling again is ok. I am trying to limit my handicapping time. From that standpoint my most accurate numbers are actually game one of the series. Betting blindly without additional handicapping could reduce the probability of wininng.


I am thinking as I write ( scary thought ), it might seem logical that as series go over in games one and two especially where the bull pens are used up, that game three has a better chance to go over.

Reverse on unders. Have anyone ever looked into past results on something like this?

Part of how I came up with my baseball series idea was a pretty sharp baseball handicapper who would handicap series rather than each game and pitching match up. It seemed logical to me.

Baker thanks for the help, I needed to add a little more yeast to my picks to make the dough rise!!!

As Always Good Luck!

Northern Star