Numbers are down, but it's still early
By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider
The Incredible Shrinking Slugger. The End of Baseball as We've Known It (Recently). Finally, a return to the Good Old Days, when you had to pull the ball to hit it over the fence and shortstops were banjo hitters.
Or so we've heard, a third of the way into this young season. But what do the numbers tell us? Below, courtesy of STATS, Inc., are last season's and this season's key hitting stats, through May:
2004 2005 %Change
Runs 9.56 9.13 -4.5
Doubles 3.72 3.63 -2.4
Triples 0.36 0.39 +6.7
Homers 2.15 1.97 -8.5
Walks 6.88 6.45 -6.3
Steals 1.06 1.10 +4.2
Batting .266 .262 -1.5
On-Base .336 .330 -1.8
Slugging .423 .414 -2.1
The raw numbers don't show much; you certainly couldn't tell any difference just by watching the games, even if you watched a whole bunch of them. But the percentage changes look significant and they probably are. With the exception of triples and steals – coincidentally or not, both are "speed stats" – hitting is down across the board (and even singles, not pictured above, are down slightly, 2.3 percent).
What might account for the lower production? There are all kinds of crazy theories floating around – the absence of Barry Bonds (who actually does impact the walks by roughly one percent), better pitching, substandard bats – but there are only three reasons that I'm able to take seriously: random fluctuation, decreased use of performance-enhancing drugs, and uncommonly cold spring weather. Some or all of these could be tested, but that's for another day. Today, let's simply assume the decline is real and make some sort of educated guess about what this season might look like, four months from now.
We cannot assume that today's statistics will simply continue exactly as they have. For one thing, hitting typically picks up as the weather warms up. Last year, for example, home runs increased six percent after May, and overall run production edged upward by one percent. If we assume – and yes, I know we're doing a lot of assuming today, but really it can't be helped – that the summer weather will have the same impact this season that it had least season, we can guess that by season's end, major leaguers will have averaged 9.20 runs and 2.05 home runs per game.
And to find another season with numbers like that, we have to get in our time machine and travel all the way back to … 2002, when the big boys averaged 9.24 and 2.09 home runs per game. Which isn't to say that 2005 doesn't represent a real change; in 2002, run production was at its lowest since 1993, and the home-run rate was the lowest since 1998. We're hardly talking about 1968, though, or even 1988 (8.3 runs and 1.5 home runs per game).
But remember all those assumptions? We're talking about relatively small differences in percentages. While it's not likely that this season's totals will equal those of 2004, it's also not unlikely that this season's totals will look quite comfortable nestled among those that have come in recent seasons.
In other words, it's just too early to tell. Maybe the spring weather's to blame, or maybe it's not. Maybe the hitters aren't using banned drugs and it's hurting them, or maybe the pitchers aren't using them, either, and it's hurting both groups. Maybe it's just been a flukey two months. Maybe in four months we'll know a lot more. Or maybe we won't.
Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider two or three times per week during the season. To offer criticism, praise or anything in between, send an e-mail to rob.neyer@dig.com.
By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider
The Incredible Shrinking Slugger. The End of Baseball as We've Known It (Recently). Finally, a return to the Good Old Days, when you had to pull the ball to hit it over the fence and shortstops were banjo hitters.
Or so we've heard, a third of the way into this young season. But what do the numbers tell us? Below, courtesy of STATS, Inc., are last season's and this season's key hitting stats, through May:
2004 2005 %Change
Runs 9.56 9.13 -4.5
Doubles 3.72 3.63 -2.4
Triples 0.36 0.39 +6.7
Homers 2.15 1.97 -8.5
Walks 6.88 6.45 -6.3
Steals 1.06 1.10 +4.2
Batting .266 .262 -1.5
On-Base .336 .330 -1.8
Slugging .423 .414 -2.1
The raw numbers don't show much; you certainly couldn't tell any difference just by watching the games, even if you watched a whole bunch of them. But the percentage changes look significant and they probably are. With the exception of triples and steals – coincidentally or not, both are "speed stats" – hitting is down across the board (and even singles, not pictured above, are down slightly, 2.3 percent).
What might account for the lower production? There are all kinds of crazy theories floating around – the absence of Barry Bonds (who actually does impact the walks by roughly one percent), better pitching, substandard bats – but there are only three reasons that I'm able to take seriously: random fluctuation, decreased use of performance-enhancing drugs, and uncommonly cold spring weather. Some or all of these could be tested, but that's for another day. Today, let's simply assume the decline is real and make some sort of educated guess about what this season might look like, four months from now.
We cannot assume that today's statistics will simply continue exactly as they have. For one thing, hitting typically picks up as the weather warms up. Last year, for example, home runs increased six percent after May, and overall run production edged upward by one percent. If we assume – and yes, I know we're doing a lot of assuming today, but really it can't be helped – that the summer weather will have the same impact this season that it had least season, we can guess that by season's end, major leaguers will have averaged 9.20 runs and 2.05 home runs per game.
And to find another season with numbers like that, we have to get in our time machine and travel all the way back to … 2002, when the big boys averaged 9.24 and 2.09 home runs per game. Which isn't to say that 2005 doesn't represent a real change; in 2002, run production was at its lowest since 1993, and the home-run rate was the lowest since 1998. We're hardly talking about 1968, though, or even 1988 (8.3 runs and 1.5 home runs per game).
But remember all those assumptions? We're talking about relatively small differences in percentages. While it's not likely that this season's totals will equal those of 2004, it's also not unlikely that this season's totals will look quite comfortable nestled among those that have come in recent seasons.
In other words, it's just too early to tell. Maybe the spring weather's to blame, or maybe it's not. Maybe the hitters aren't using banned drugs and it's hurting them, or maybe the pitchers aren't using them, either, and it's hurting both groups. Maybe it's just been a flukey two months. Maybe in four months we'll know a lot more. Or maybe we won't.
Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider two or three times per week during the season. To offer criticism, praise or anything in between, send an e-mail to rob.neyer@dig.com.
