Surprise, surprise
We're a third of the way through the schedule, and for me, these are the Top 10 surprises of the season, good or bad.
1. The success of the White Sox. The only way I thought the White Sox could contend would be if all five starters threw well, including a guy who had established himself as a .500 pitcher (Jon Garland), a hard-thrower with fragile nerves (Jose Contreras), a soft-thrower who turns 40 (no kidding) later this year (Orlando Hernandez). Lo and behold, they've all thrown well, and they must be taken very seriously, with a 3½-game lead over the Twins in the Central, and leads of 6, 7½ and 9 games over the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees in the wild-card race (if the Twins were to overtake them in the division).
2. The failure of the Yankees. They're at .500, 27-27, with the same winning percentage as the Tigers, and they're not really in a position to make changes, because of the intransigence of the big-money players on their roster. I thought they would have a great regular season and then lose in the playoffs, but they are in serious trouble now.
They're in a four-team dogfight in the AL East, and as discussed here earlier in the week, they're going to be at an enormous disadvantage in the wild-card race because of their schedule. They've got 108 games remaining and of those, 72 are against teams at .500 or better, the most among AL playoff contenders. By comparison, the Twins had only 50, going into Friday's game, while the White Sox had just 51. The Yankees will probably have to win their division, lest they fail to make the playoffs for the first time since before the '94 players' strike.
3. Derrek Lee. I covered the Padres when they drafted him, and what they talked about was him becoming a 30-homer guy with a lot of strikeouts -- and that's exactly what he has been, for much of his career. But his plate discipline has gone from good to great, and he's flirting with a .400 average. Never imagined he'd be the type who hit for average to that degree.
4. Barry Bonds. I thought he'd have 720 homers by now, moving past The Babe and locking his sights on Henry Aaron.
5. The balance in the NL East. I thought the Braves and Marlins would take control of this division early, but the closer situation in Atlanta is terrible -- Danny Kolb has been more than a big bust -- and the Marlins really have no excuses; if Florida doesn't win this division, their players will always look back and know they blew it.
6. The Orioles. I figured they would contend if and only if their young pitchers improved dramatically -- which is what Erik Bedard did, consistently, before he got hurt, and what Daniel Cabrera has done, from time to time; on those nights when Cabrera is locked in, he might be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay.
But Baltimore needs to augment its roster with trades, right now, while the Red Sox are still spinning their wheels and waiting for Curt Schilling to come back, while the Yankees are holding team meetings every other day. Who knows if Bedard's balky knee can hold up, and when and if Brian Roberts is going to come back (although the news seems to be good about Roberts, for now). They can win this division, but they need reinforcements ASAP.
7. The Nationals. They are a lot like the Rangers were last year, in that they just play hard and find ways to win. You look at their lineup, you watch them play, you can't always figure out who is going to get the next big hit. But they get it. Happy for Frank Robinson, who deserves this kind of success after the Expos debacle of the last couple of years.
8. The Astros. You knew they would miss Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran. But with that pitching, you didn't figure they would struggle for every single victory, every single run.
9. The Brewers. Thought they'd be better, but they're coming along faster than expected.
10. The Rangers. Their success was so fragile last year, with a high-power, low-OBP offense and a rotation that struggled to scrape together five mediocre innings every night. There was no way, it seemed, that they could pull all that together again.
Instead, their rotation ranks fifth in the AL in ERA, their hitters have matured and now have the seventh-best OBP in the AL, along with the most home runs.
We're a third of the way through the schedule, and for me, these are the Top 10 surprises of the season, good or bad.
1. The success of the White Sox. The only way I thought the White Sox could contend would be if all five starters threw well, including a guy who had established himself as a .500 pitcher (Jon Garland), a hard-thrower with fragile nerves (Jose Contreras), a soft-thrower who turns 40 (no kidding) later this year (Orlando Hernandez). Lo and behold, they've all thrown well, and they must be taken very seriously, with a 3½-game lead over the Twins in the Central, and leads of 6, 7½ and 9 games over the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees in the wild-card race (if the Twins were to overtake them in the division).
2. The failure of the Yankees. They're at .500, 27-27, with the same winning percentage as the Tigers, and they're not really in a position to make changes, because of the intransigence of the big-money players on their roster. I thought they would have a great regular season and then lose in the playoffs, but they are in serious trouble now.
They're in a four-team dogfight in the AL East, and as discussed here earlier in the week, they're going to be at an enormous disadvantage in the wild-card race because of their schedule. They've got 108 games remaining and of those, 72 are against teams at .500 or better, the most among AL playoff contenders. By comparison, the Twins had only 50, going into Friday's game, while the White Sox had just 51. The Yankees will probably have to win their division, lest they fail to make the playoffs for the first time since before the '94 players' strike.
3. Derrek Lee. I covered the Padres when they drafted him, and what they talked about was him becoming a 30-homer guy with a lot of strikeouts -- and that's exactly what he has been, for much of his career. But his plate discipline has gone from good to great, and he's flirting with a .400 average. Never imagined he'd be the type who hit for average to that degree.
4. Barry Bonds. I thought he'd have 720 homers by now, moving past The Babe and locking his sights on Henry Aaron.
5. The balance in the NL East. I thought the Braves and Marlins would take control of this division early, but the closer situation in Atlanta is terrible -- Danny Kolb has been more than a big bust -- and the Marlins really have no excuses; if Florida doesn't win this division, their players will always look back and know they blew it.
6. The Orioles. I figured they would contend if and only if their young pitchers improved dramatically -- which is what Erik Bedard did, consistently, before he got hurt, and what Daniel Cabrera has done, from time to time; on those nights when Cabrera is locked in, he might be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay.
But Baltimore needs to augment its roster with trades, right now, while the Red Sox are still spinning their wheels and waiting for Curt Schilling to come back, while the Yankees are holding team meetings every other day. Who knows if Bedard's balky knee can hold up, and when and if Brian Roberts is going to come back (although the news seems to be good about Roberts, for now). They can win this division, but they need reinforcements ASAP.
7. The Nationals. They are a lot like the Rangers were last year, in that they just play hard and find ways to win. You look at their lineup, you watch them play, you can't always figure out who is going to get the next big hit. But they get it. Happy for Frank Robinson, who deserves this kind of success after the Expos debacle of the last couple of years.
8. The Astros. You knew they would miss Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran. But with that pitching, you didn't figure they would struggle for every single victory, every single run.
9. The Brewers. Thought they'd be better, but they're coming along faster than expected.
10. The Rangers. Their success was so fragile last year, with a high-power, low-OBP offense and a rotation that struggled to scrape together five mediocre innings every night. There was no way, it seemed, that they could pull all that together again.
Instead, their rotation ranks fifth in the AL in ERA, their hitters have matured and now have the seventh-best OBP in the AL, along with the most home runs.
