I know you here a lot about the housing bubble and all of that media contrived b.s. Here is the one factor you need to keep your eye on. It is the uneployment rate. People will buy homes as long as they feel secure they have a job to pay for it. If their comfortable that they will have income a half point on intrest rates don't mean squat. The job market appears to be strengthening. Of course I'm talking nationwide so there may be regional factors in your situation. The fed will continue to raise the prime lending rate because it is low now and if anything does happen they really don't have any bullets in the gun by lowering the rate.
I remember in 2001 everybody at the gym was talking about some internet stock they bought and now everybody at the gym is talking about some property they flipped. When there is this level of artificial demand in that everybody is doing it, it won't be long before it all comes crashing down just like the Internet stocks. My guess is that the property market in the hottest markets (4 in FL & Vegas) will peak in about 6 - 12 months. With Fed pushing rates higher which will dampen real demand, this will stop the huge returns in the property market and when the big returns stop so will all of the flipping and artificial demand will evaporate.
Peaked as in where to make a quick buck, yes. Peaked as in going to see major drops in value, no. I think housing will return to being a 0-5% annual price increase market in short order. The stock market will get hot in the next year and people will go back to investing there and housing will stop being the place where every average Joe will think he should put all his investment funds.
2 reasons why I don't think real estate has peaked...
Intrest rates are still very attractive.
The fed will raise the prime rate 2 more times this year at .25 point each time and this fact is already priced into the market.
I would still consider real estate to be a good investment at this time.
Intrest rates are still very attractive.
The fed will raise the prime rate 2 more times this year at .25 point each time and this fact is already priced into the market.
I would still consider real estate to be a good investment at this time.
I think the most growth potential is in starter homes around 100k in areas like NC, maybe Texas, Colo, and other areas. Warm climates are desirable. Most people can't afford 700k homes. I predict people will move to more affordable areas. AZ and NM could grow. My step-daughter wants to buy, I tell her to move away from CT because all she will get here is a trailor, when she could get better elsewhere. LV used to be good but it's all Californiacated now ! It's also a mean city.
Let's take a guy with a decent job ( like a cop or a postal worker) working in San Francisco. No way they buy million dollar homes. The SF cop probably lives in Oakland.
Let's take a guy with a decent job ( like a cop or a postal worker) working in San Francisco. No way they buy million dollar homes. The SF cop probably lives in Oakland.
You would be amazed what they come up with these days Doug. I used to live in the Bay Area and all my middle class friends found a way to buy something. Many bought years ago so they just worked up the ladder, but many started just a few years ago. Interest rates are low and it seems brokers assume you want an interest-only loan if you are a first time buyer. How do people do it? Start at the bottom like most other people. The 700k home is a middle of the road home in many parts of the Bay Area, but you can get a condo for 300-400k. With an interest only loan and low rates you are looking at about $1500-1700/month. With the easy qualifications these days that requires an income of only say $70k, not too tough for a two-income couple in any market, especially one in a high-income area like CA.
Is it risky? Damn right it is, no equity to build means these people won't be moving up if the market doesn't move up, but its not impossible. I don't necessarily condone it, but just use the illustration to point out just how so many homeowners exist in markets with sky high prices.
Is it risky? Damn right it is, no equity to build means these people won't be moving up if the market doesn't move up, but its not impossible. I don't necessarily condone it, but just use the illustration to point out just how so many homeowners exist in markets with sky high prices.
arty:
I hear ya Holysmoke.
I bought some dirt (2 pieces of property) in Cape Coral for a little more than 10g each two years ago.
Both pieces are going for over 120g each now and bought a piece for 55g on March 1st and that is over 80g now.
Also bought a condo in Naples, FL in August of 2004 for 240g and that is now over 350g.
Wish I could get some more equity and buy more.
I dont see it stopping for another couple years. Too much of a demand in Florida and the east and west will have to meet in Florida, so still lots going on.
Just follow the builders and that is where to buy next it seems.
I bought some dirt (2 pieces of property) in Cape Coral for a little more than 10g each two years ago.
Both pieces are going for over 120g each now and bought a piece for 55g on March 1st and that is over 80g now.
Also bought a condo in Naples, FL in August of 2004 for 240g and that is now over 350g.
Wish I could get some more equity and buy more.
I dont see it stopping for another couple years. Too much of a demand in Florida and the east and west will have to meet in Florida, so still lots going on.
Just follow the builders and that is where to buy next it seems.
