NBA Finals preview thread

Since this IS the Finals, thought these deserved "front page" exposure:

NBA Finals Schedule
Best-of-7, on ABC
Date Site Time
June 9 San Antonio 8:30 ET
June 12 San Antonio 8:30 ET
June 14 Detroit 8:30 ET
June 16 Detroit 8:30 ET
x-June 19 Detroit 8:30 ET
x-June 21 San Antonio 8:30 ET
x-June 23 San Antonio 8:30 ET
x-if necessary

Spurs should overcome toughest Finals yet
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com

They have the best player in the series and, well, maybe the two best players.

They have the far deeper bench and the home-court advantage and the sort of stylistic adjustability that has their coach, in a complimentary way, calling them chameleons.

They have to be the favorites in the forthcoming NBA Finals, these San Antonio Spurs.

Yet they also have to know that this will be the toughest Finals they've seen yet.

In the Spurs' previous two title runs, winning the West basically guaranteed the championship. The Knicks took a game off them in 1999, and the Nets somehow worked themselves to a 2-2 tie in the 2003 Finals, but neither of those teams was given any real hope of beating San Antonio. Not after San Antonio won the Shaq-and-Kobe conference. The Finals were a formality.

It'll be different this time, even though the Spurs have the most athletic and versatile team they've ever fielded. The defending champs from Detroit are good for at least two wins, given their own defensive prowess and resilience and championship pedigree.

The Pistons will guard Tim Duncan better than he has ever been defended on this stage, especially since he's in the Finals for the first time without David Robinson as a tag-team partner. Rasheed Wallace has always been able to hang with Duncan defensively, and Ben Wallace makes for a pretty decent helper. Detroit also has Elden Campbell to lean on Duncan for a foul or two, rounding out the effective three-man unit the Pistons just ran at Shaquille O'Neal.

The Pistons likewise have a lanky lefty to shadow the Spurs' crafty lefty. You can argue (and we do) that Manu Ginobili is almost Duncan's equal for dependability and thus the No. 2 talent these Finals can offer, ahead of any Piston you want to name. Detroit, though, can counter Ginobili's guile with a smothering southpaw named Tayshaun Prince, which means Ginobili will have to be at his craftiest.

Which means the Pistons might be good for more than two wins.

Stress might. Anything's possible, but you can't be wowed by these Pistons after they struggled to KO a battered Miami team. You also can't deny that the Spurs have their own stoppers (Bruce Bowen and Ginobili) and speed (Tony Parker) to keep Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton from scoring freely. Comparing frontcourt trios, furthermore, I'd take Duncan-Nazr Mohammed-Robert Horry over the Wallace Brothers and Antonio McDyess, given how efficient Nazr and Horry have been lately.

Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
It's easy to follow the leader when your leader is Tim Duncan.

And with Duncan, naturally, as the difference-maker.

Playing on a couple of bad ankles, and admitting that he won't be 100 percent healthy until getting some significant offseason rest, Duncan has nonetheless managed to elevate his game in every round. Except for a Game 4 free-throw nightmare in the Phoenix, he patiently carved up the Suns.

"He will take what you give him," said Suns coach Mike D'Antoni, praising Duncan's trust in his teammates when he's double-teamed and the punishment he coolly administered when Phoenix single-covered him.

"He is the ultimate winner, and that's why they're so good," D'Antoni continued. "I hate saying it, but he's the best player in the game."

D'Antoni hates saying it because Steve Nash, the regular-season MVP, is a Sun.

He also hates saying it because the Spurs have another guy, Ginobili, who can score and create and, most annoyingly, get to every loose ball fast.

"Manu was so good against us," Nash said of Ginobili. "You try to make him go right, but he's so quick that even when he goes right, he can switch back to the left and still get by you."

"Ain't nobody else really handled us [this season] like they did," Suns forward Quentin Richardson said.

It's important to note, of course, that the Suns aren't the Pistons. Phoenix parlayed its breakneck, offense-is-our-defense philosophy into a league-leading 62 wins and a trip to the conference finals, but Detroit plays on the Spurs' level. The Pistons are proven champions who got back to the Finals by improving to 7-0, including last spring's playoff run, in games with a chance to eliminate the opposition.

In those seven victories, capped by Monday's 88-82 Game 7 triumph in Miami, Detroit has allowed an average of just 76.7 points. That's defense San Antonio can envy.

So the Spurs will be ready. They're well aware that a season of chaos -- starting with an infamous brawl against Indiana ... and later marred by Larry Brown's health woes ... and most recently infiltrated by Brown's controversial flirtations with the Cavaliers -- couldn't keep Detroit from returning to the title round.

"Rip said it best -- this is what we do," Pistons president Joe Dumars gushed in Monday's post-victory celebration. "This is what we do."

Added Billups: "To win a series like this, it's validation that tough times never last, [but] tough people do."

Yup. The Spurs know all that. They know how tough these Finals will be.

Yet the feeling here remains that the Spurs have too many pluses to fall. Too many, even, to need a seventh game to take the Pistons out.

I'm even going to give them the toughness edge.

"They cover up their weaknesses really well," said Suns swingman Jim Jackson.

Which is why I'm confident they'll cover my Spurs In Six prediction, too.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here. Also, click here to send a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.

From ESPN Insider Chad Ford's weblog:

Spurs in seven
I know everyone keeps saying that a Pistons-Spurs Finals is the NBA's worst nightmare.

As a hoops fan, I just don't see it that way. Any time you get the best two teams in the league in the NBA Finals, it has the potential to be great. The fact that both teams are so evenly matched makes it all the better.

No, I don't think we'll see either team crack 100 points in a game, but if all the games are as riveting as Game 7 of the Pistons-Heat series, I can live with it.

I've been leading the Pistons parade all year, but I think the Spurs will prevail in the Finals for three big reasons.

1. Tony Parker

When Parker plays well, the Spurs roll. In the 58 games the Spurs won this season, Parker shot 51 percent from the field. In their 22 losses, he shot 42 percent.

Parker has been excellent against the Pistons once again this year, shooting 50 percent from the field in the last two games.

Chauncey Billups is a good defender, but he can't keep up with Parker. With Parker consistently getting into the lane, good things usually happen for the Spurs.

2. Rasheed Wallace

When the Pistons can establish Wallace, either in the post or on the perimeter, their whole offense opens up. Wallace's ability to move inside and outside usually creates a matchup problem with just about every team in the league.

Tim Duncan is the one guy who can handle Wallace either way. Maybe that's why Wallace shot just 40 percent from the field against the Spurs this season.

3. Manu Ginobili

He's taken his game to another level in the playoffs this year -- averaging 21.7 ppg and 4.3 apg, and shooting 52 percent from the field and 46 percent from three. Rip Hamilton may be one of the few defenders in the league who can match his endless movement, but that shouldn't slow Manu down. In fact, I think Manu's the best international player in the league right now. His playoff performance has shot him ahead of Dirk Nowitzki and Peja Stojakovic.

By now we've learned that you can't underestimate this Pistons team. When their backs are against the wall, they are the most dangerous team in the league.

But the Spurs are a little better defensively and a lot better offensively. The Pistons have hard work and grit going for them, but the Spurs can match that, too.

That's why I'm picking the Spurs in seven.
posted: June 7, 2005 9:07:48 AM PDT

THE COACHES


Brown, Popovich make for best matchup
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

I know what you're thinking: This could be the most boring NBA Finals ever. San Antonio versus Detroit is a matchup of two fantastic defensive teams that aren't quite as capable at the offensive end. If that weren't enough, they're also two of the slowest-paced teams in the league.

But fear not. While the halftime score of Game 1 might be something like 16-12, we at least have something to keep us captivated: the battle of wits between two of the game's best head coaches.


You might call this one the teacher vs. the motivator. The teacher is Detroit's Larry Brown. The Pistons' head coach is at his most comfortable when he's running a practice, showing the proper way to throw a bounce pass or instructing his players on how to run a new play. Meanwhile, the motivator is San Antonio's Gregg Popovich. If Brown's mantra is "play the right way," Air Force-educated Popovich's approach is more militaristic. Few coaches have been able to inspire such passion at the defensive end, and even more unusual for an NBA coach, his players don't seem tired of hearing his stern message.

Adding to the drama is that the two coaches are good friends. Popovich got his entry into the NBA when Brown hired him as an assistant with the Spurs in 1988. Save for a brief tenure as Don Nelson's assistant in Golden State, Popovich has been in the Alamo City ever since. Meanwhile, Brown has changed jobs 53 times since then and appears to be busy lining up future employment at this very moment. The two share another bond, as well: They were the architects of the Olympic debacle in Athens, with Brown as the head coach and Popovich the chief assistant. Ironically, they're now the cream of the NBA crop.

In any case, the most interesting thing about these two is their unusual game-management styles. Let's take a look at a few of their quirks:

The two-foul rule: Brown's résumé says North Carolina, but his style is 100 percent New York. Befitting his Seinfeldian neurotic ways, Brown seems to have an irrational fear of players picking up a third foul before halftime. Whenever one of his frontcourt players picks up a second foul, Brown normally will sit him for the rest of the first half.

We saw the illogical extremes to which Brown takes this maneuver in Game 2 of the Miami series, when he sat Tayshaun Prince for the entire second quarter and Rasheed Wallace for most of it. It's true that neither player fouled out, but the cure was worse than the disease: Miami took over the game while Wallace and Prince were on the bench and left Detroit with too big of a deficit to overcome.

It will be interesting to see whether Brown keeps this up in the Finals, because Spurs players such as Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have a habit of drawing fouls on opposing big men. One hopes at some point Brown will see the dubious logic of this strange tactic.

Rapid-fire substitution: Trying to keep track of Popovich's substitution pattern is an exercise in futility. Other than Duncan and Parker, everybody checks in and out at least twice in each half. Take a look at Game 5 against Phoenix, for example. Popovich made 31 substitutions, while Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni made just 15.

This is especially noteworthy with Ginobili because it tends to limit the minutes of the Spurs' second-best player. Popovich starts Ginobili but pulls him out of the game remarkably early – for instance, at the 7:39 mark of the first quarter in Game 5 against Phoenix (he wasn't in foul trouble, either). Popovich's logic here is to have a rested Ginobili back on the floor by the time he takes out Duncan, usually at the end of the first quarter. But then he gives Ginobili another rest midway through the second quarter and repeats the pattern in the second half.

Two other starters – Bruce Bowen and Nazr Mohammed – also shuttle in and out at rapid intervals, with Robert Horry normally finishing halves in Mohammed's place. Popovich also loves to play offense/defense with Bowen and Brent Barry at the end of quarters, playing Barry if it's the Spurs' ball and Bowen if it isn't.

Defensive specialists on the bench: This is a Brown favorite. When he goes to the bench, he's not looking for offense. Just take a look at Lindsey Hunter, who figures to see plenty of minutes in the Finals against Ginobili. Hunter might be the worst offensive guard in basketball, shooting 35, 34 and 36 percent the past three seasons. Yet he'll be the first guard, and possibly the only one, Brown calls off his bench.

Look further at Elden Campbell, whom the Nets and Jazz both cut this year. The aging 7-footer saw periodic usage as a Shaq stopper in the Miami series and could see action against Duncan in the Finals. But don't expect points from him, either – he has 12 in the entire postseason.

Then there's the position Brown invented for Darvin Ham: "End-of-quarter defensive specialist." He only comes in if a) one of the other forwards is in foul trouble, b) it's the end of a quarter and c) the other team has the ball.

Captain Hook: Brown tends to use a fairly set rotation and rides his starters for 40 minutes every night. Popovich is the opposite – he has no qualms about yanking a player who isn't producing, with the exception of Duncan.

This was most apparent in recent seasons with Tony Parker, who often wouldn't finish games he started poorly. Popovich has given Parker a longer leash this year, with Game 5 against Phoenix being a perfect example. San Antonio fell behind because Parker couldn't make a jump shot, but once he got going in the third quarter, the Spurs cruised toward victory.

Still, making a defensive mistake or a bad turnover on Popovich's team is a very bad idea, especially if your name happens to be "Beno." While Popovich is more patient than he used to be, he still won't hesitate before pulling the plug on a player who isn't performing.

Matching up: This might be the most intriguing part of the coaching standoff, and the one we'll know much more about after Game 1. For instance, whom will defensive aces Bowen and Prince guard? My guess is that Bowen will guard Richard Hamilton and Prince will take Ginobili, but both coaches have plenty of options – Bowen could see time guarding Chauncey Billups, especially if Hunter is on the court, while Prince might take turns on Parker. Plenty of other questions await answers. Which Wallace – Rasheed or Ben – will be the primary defender on Duncan? Can Horry compete against the much more physical Detroit frontcourt? Can Popovich find ways to hide Barry on defense against the Palace guards? We'll start learning the answers Thursday.

But one thing is certain: This is the most interesting Finals coaching matchup in a long time. Two good friends, each with major idiosyncrasies and very distinct styles, battling wits in what should be a knock-down, drag-out affair. Following this matchup could very well be more entertaining than the actual games.

John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05," is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. Click here to contact John.

Scouting Report: Pistons-Spurs


By Brian James
ESPN Insider


ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA Finals.

After seven months of training camp and the regular season, and another six weeks of playoffs, we finally have only two teams standing. And if you ask many of the so-called experts, the majority would have gotten it right this time in terms of picking which two teams would be in the Finals. I clearly believe that the best two teams are playing for the championship in San Antonio and Detroit. In my mind, they mirror one another. The two teams split in the regular season. Tim Duncan had an 18-point, 18-rebound performance in a three-point Spurs win in early December. Then Duncan injured his ankle in the Spurs' nine-point loss to Detroit in late March.

These are the best two defensive teams in the NBA in my opinion, when formulating points allowed, defensive field-goal percentage, defensive 3-point field-goal percentage and blocked shots. They both follow their coach's system to a T, and you rarely see miscues or missed assignments on defense. Look for the big men to aggressively show hard on shooters coming off screens. Yet they will also force you baseline into the four or five when you get the ball on the side and a screen is coming to free you. They are continually changing coverages on the defensive end to confuse their opponents. An example is both San Antonio and Detroit may go under a screen at the top against the point guards, but then trap in the fourth quarter to get the ball stopped. Both can run when given the opportunity, as San Antonio proved in the Phoenix series. The Spurs can play almost any style of offense you want, but they'll always make sure Duncan gets his touches early and often – especially in the fourth quarter.

Both have great strengths and not many weaknesses. When the Big Three of Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker plays well, the Spurs don't lose. The Spurs have done a tremendous job taking away the strengths of their opponents. They are great at taking away your first option. The 3-point defense in the postseason has been tremendous. Detroit has shown time and time again how poised and collected it is in the last few possessions when it really counts, as Game 7 against Miami proved. No one is mentally tougher. The Pistons have done this all postseason. Both would have been the top seeds if Duncan and Larry Brown had not missed so many contests due to injury or illness.

Fans and the media may not give Detroit the credit it deserves. The Pistons just don't have marquee stars. But the respect they have around the league by coaches and players alike are at an all-time high. They are a pain to play against since they take you out of your offense with their pressure. San Antonio will see an unselfish, balanced scoring team, and five starters that can all hurt them.

Point guard

San Antonio: Parker sets the tone for the entire team. When he gets into the lane and attacks on offense, and knocks down the open shots when Duncan gets doubled or his defender goes below the screen roll action, the Spurs look good. He has averaged over 18 points in the postseason. He did a very good job forcing the issue offensively against the Suns, running Steve Nash off screen after screen. He loved the up-tempo style the Phoenix series provided, but he can also dial it down to the slower-paced Pistons' game plan. When he lets the game come to him, attacking early in the shot clock and playing off Duncan, Tony is at his best.

Detroit: Chauncey Billups is averaging 18 points a game this postseason and is usually the heart and soul when the Pistons need big hoops in the fourth quarter. He's also capable of hitting 20 in one quarter. Will Billups attempt to post up Parker in the block? He will have to be leery of Duncan or Nazr Mohammad coming over to help from the weak side. Don't foul Billups when the game is on the line. He is one of the best clutch free-throw shooters, and proved it again in Game 7 against the Heat.

Advantage: Even. This will be one of the best matchups of the series.

Off guard:

San Antonio: Bruce Bowen, though listed on depth charts as a small forward, will likely get the task of stopping the opponent's best swingman. This All-Defense first team member now will go back and forth from chasing Richard Hamilton off multiple screens to defending the post-up isolations of Tayshaun Prince. Bruce hasn't been asked to score much in these playoffs, but that isn't his forte. Bowen had Carmelo Anthony and Ray Allen fighting with him as much as playing. He also frustrated the Suns' Shawn Marion and Quentin Richardson who both played below their normal games. By having an imposing front line behind him, Bowen is free to guard these types of players as if it was a box-and-one defense. He faces, guards them and always stays attached to them if they have the ball or not.

Detroit: Hamilton kept the Pistons' heads and confidence up by knocking down six straight shots at the end of the first quarter in Game 7 after Miami had jumped out on top. Rip made 8 of 10 shots in the first half and finished with 22 points. Miami tried to take away the tight curl off the pin-down screen so Rip couldn't receive the pass near the elbow area. So all Rip did was fade to the corner and hit every shot. His improved passing has helped make the Pistons a very unselfish team. But he will get the most attempts from the field and the free-throw line. Another challenge for the Bowen/Ginobili combination.

Advantage: Detroit, but Bowen will make it tough on him.

Small forward

San Antonio: Ginobili just keeps coming up with big play after big play. When things break down or the Spurs have a dry spell, Manu usually hits a shot by creating contact or spinning free for a lefty lay-in. The player who coach Gregg Popovich calls his "Wild Card" is always attacking at both ends. He will try to use his strength against Hamilton and take Prince out on the perimeter before penetrating. All Manu does is win and he's gotten better before our eyes.

Detroit: Prince will have the task of keeping Ginobili in front of him. His length will no doubt come into play as it did against Dwyane Wade early in the Miami series. Tayshaun will attempt to take away his layups and free throws and make him a jump shooter. Offensively, he will get his chance to challenge the big front line of San Antonio with his post-ups, but can also fade out to the 3-point line as the ball moves. Like Ginobili, Prince is as improved as anyone and never quits on any play.

Advantage: San Antonio.

Power forward

San Antonio: Duncan has gotten better with each series as his ankles recover from soreness. The two-time MVP and NBA champ is playing like a star. He averaged 23.3 points and 14 rebounds against the Suns, and scored 30 or more points three times in the series. The Spurs capitalize with Tim's decision making when his teammates feed the post. He does the little things that win games like being able to handle the ball, pass, run the floor to finish with either hand, use the short bank shot outside either block, or just make jump shots. Even his free-throw shooting is much improved outside of the one game that Phoenix won. His defense is stellar both on and off the ball. When he gets double-teamed in the post, he will find the open man. Tim doesn't care if he scores or not, he just wants to win, which is why he is loved in San Antonio.

Detroit: The Pistons are 8-0 in the postseason when Rasheed Wallace scores 20 or more points in a game. And I don't know if I have ever seen Rasheed play better when it was time to step up at the end of a game in a playoff setting. Knocking down two free throws and adding the rebound basket off a Prince miss in Game 7 set the Pistons up to advance against the Heat. Wallace will definitely try to take Duncan away from the basket by stretching the defense with his shooting ability. With that said, the Pistons play better when Rasheed doesn't drift out too much and get into the post looking for his shot. This series he will have a great defender on him. Look for Wallace to show Duncan different looks by fronting him or getting help from the three/four or playing behind to alter his shot with the double team coming.

Advantage: You just can't deny possibly the best player today. The Spurs get the edge.

Center

San Antonio: Nazr Mohammed has done an excellent job as the newest member of the starting five. Mohammed hurt Phoenix with offensive rebounds while the defense concentrated on Duncan. His length and overall size will help against Detroit's big front line.

Detroit: Ben Wallace showed in Rounds 1 and 2 how much-improved he is on the offensive end of the floor, but against the Pistons, his energy was spent on Shaq. If Ben's defender loses contact with him, then look out for the lob passes for dunks on the break or when Rip curls off him to the elbow area. This doesn't even include the points he scores on offensive stick backs for second-chance points.

Advantage: Detroit.

Bench

San Antonio: The Spurs' depth has been a real plus for them. Robert Horry and Brent Barry come off the bench, but are in the lineup at the end of games. That's when it counts. Horry is looking for his sixth ring and has been knocking down shots, rebounding in traffic and defending above the norm. Beno Udrih, Devin Brown and Rasho Nesterovic all have been productive coming in for short spurts. Glenn Robinson should be back after missing the Phoenix series due to personal issues.

Detroit: Joe Dumars went out and retrieved Elden Campbell from the New Jersey Nets, so Campbell could help against Shaquille O'Neal. He gave them a huge lift with this. Coach Brown is using Lindsey Hunter to harass the opponents' guards and will be asked to do the same on Parker. Antonio McDyess has played great off the bench and will be extra motivated in this series trying to get his first ring. He has been making the short jump shot. Carlos Arroyo will be asked to counter the speed of Parker as well. He gets Detroit going when they start out slow.

Advantage: San Antonio.

Coaching

San Antonio: The players will be back to playing actual games after eight days off, so Popovich will stop putting in new plays. Pop has done an excellent job of taking away the strengths of opponents. Against Seattle and Phoenix, they played excellent perimeter defense. Against Phoenix, the Spurs' game plan was to take away Marion's offense. They did. And they changed their offensive philosophy in running right back at the Suns while never letting their defense waver. He also knows when to go to Duncan, which is often.

Detroit: Larry Brown is now 7-3 in Game 7s. He and Pop are great friends with really no secrets on the court. They have meetings to discuss philosophy all the time. But Brown has done a great job of selling the unselfish approach to his team and has them poised to win at the end of games by having his players knowing exactly what is expected of them. They play hard, which is all anyone can ask. Both teams believe in their coaches once the ball is thrown up, and that is half the battle in the NBA.

Advantage: Even.

Prediction

Even though these two teams are very even in most of the important categories, I feel the intangibles will make the difference in this series. The eight days off will help San Antonio. Plus, in my mind, the extra home game gives the Spurs an incredible advantage due to the 2-3-2 format used in the Finals. It is so hard for the home team in the middle three games to win all three, although I do realize that Detroit did this last year by winning Games 3, 4 and 5 over the Lakers. But I think the Spurs will win one game in Detroit. With the Spurs' depth and overall speed and quickness, I'm going away from picking Detroit for the first time. I like San Antonio to win a hard-fought, grind-it-out series in seven games. Detroit's experience and refusal to lose will extend this series out, but San Antonio should prevail if no serious injuries occur.

Brian James, a former assistant coach with the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards, is a regular contributor to Insider.