How Many Times?

bucsfan67 · Jun 9, 2005

Do you see a team leading by 2 go into the 9th, and give up (1) RUN.....?

And this is NOT a sore loser thread, simply because i lost the Washington game, cuz i have won many like that myself, and am ahead for the night....It just reminded me how many times this seems to happen.....

They dont lose the game, but they give up that ONE RUN......

And no, i dont think its set up, i just think its odd how many times it happens....especially in LOW SCORING games where the team hasnt hit for the whole game, yet they manage to get that ONE RUN across the plate, that in the end means nothing towards the winner of the game...

CHOPTALK · Jun 9, 2005

I have played about 280 games this season. I think I have played 12 at the most -1.5 run line games. I hate them. More times than you can imagine.

mrpotter1 · Jun 9, 2005

Runlines are tough to bet with as bad as most bullpens have been this year!

SportSavant · Jun 9, 2005

dont forget the rewards though,

yesterday I had the cubbies on the alternative +300 & Boston on the alternative + 250 (thanks to bucs)

only got win between 35% to 45% of these....

Mr.Leisure · Jun 9, 2005

That Washington Game Hurt !

cutacrossshorty · Jun 9, 2005

Mr. Leisure said:
That Washington Game Hurt !

Whatever you do, don't watch how the A's got their last run. It was the equivalent of missing a 6 inch putt.

Roxygurl · Jun 9, 2005

you know me guys im just along for the ride and the cruisings been incredibly profitable! :103631605

but ive learned alot since discovering bucsfan the 1st week of the season.i hate losing this way. its a helpless feeling and shows why maybe they should have let contraction happen a few years ago when it was a hot topic. the pitching is diluted and bullpens are staffed by guys who should be in A ball.but we get beat in football with meaningless pass interference calls with 2 minutes to go putting the ball on the 1 and the other side kills your spread with a garbage TD.the wins are sweet but the loses are maddening when its blatant stupidity by a high dollar player who should keep his concentration with a nice lead. argh.:drink: ~RG

jwblue · Jun 9, 2005

Probably because the team protecting the 2 run lead is willing to give up that run to get an out. Sometimes a baserunner will steal second base uncontested. With a man on first, on a slow roller the fielder will play it safe and get the out at first. Pitchers will do anything to give up a walk. They often will groove a fastball and give up a bomb. Things like that don't happen in the early innings.

IS

koidog · Jun 9, 2005

When I first started playing on did use that -1.5 line a fair amount. It just changes the number so much it looks attractive.

I still play it once in a while, but as a rule it's not too samrt to lay the run.

bubba-sc · Jun 9, 2005

bucsfan67 said:
Do you see a team leading by 2 go into the 9th, and give up (1) RUN.....?

For me, run-lines have to be played if a certain number of positive "IFS" meet my threshold. I will stray away from the rules IF a GREAT situation presents itself, but I try to maintain the positive.
1. Playing a HOMETEAM on the runline generally is a NO rather than YES. The visitor gets a guaranteed 9th atbat to score, hometeams just need to get out of the inning with whatever lead there is because that guarantees them victory, and good teams win a lot of 1 run games . So if you like a minus run & a half, the team you are backing is obviously a good team BUT, the bet is you have to win by at least 2. Your team could care less.

2. Playing a VISITING team on the minus runline is generally worth trying to prove a YES. The team you are backing is obviously good, and good teams play well enough on the road, especially if the moneyline for them is over -140 on the road for this contest in prospect. You are guaranteed equal amount of at bats to score. Since you are obviously backing a good team , that extra atbat doesnt give you just an 11.1% added edge to cover the 1½, but at least a 33.3% more of an added edge, because you have already handicapped the game to have the visiting favorite win by 2 runs or more in your overall numbers. And that 33% is HUGE over the longhaul!! compared to the potential NEGATIVE % probability that occurs WHENEVER you take a hometeam favorite -1½!! So in essence, after all the gray area numbers filter in, you should want to play MORE VISITOR FAVORITES than HOME FAVORITES. How many more all depends on how you maintain whatever overall powernumber/projected- runs- by- each team figures.

t3a · Jun 10, 2005

bucsfan67 said:
Do you see a team leading by 2 go into the 9th, and give up (1) RUN.....?

I had SD and Wash both today, both blowing shutouts in the 8th inning and then letting up that final run with 2 outs in the 9th. WHich just makes it worse, one pitch away.

SHACK · Jun 10, 2005

The run lines payed real well again tonight like last night for us Bucs, but couldv'e used this one too.

edub69 · Jun 10, 2005

t3a said:
I had SD and Wash both today, both blowing shutouts in the 8th inning and then letting up that final run with 2 outs in the 9th. WHich just makes it worse, one pitch away.

I had both of those too. The Wash game was absolutely horrendous. Why did Castilla go to 2nd with that throw? I was on the phone with the pizza man when that play happened, and he hung up on me after I let out a string of obscenities. I can live with the Padres game because Hoffman was getting knocked around pretty good that inning and was lucky to get out without coughing up the lead. Luckily I was on all of Bucsfan's other plays so I still had a winning day - thanks Bucsfan :toast:

pizzap · Jun 10, 2005

i cant believe it happened to me twice today. :monsters- and i think twice yesterday

Peanut · Jun 10, 2005

I'm with you folks on this one run stuff in the late innings. But, as ole YOGI said, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings", and that my friends is baseball.

Gary_Philly · Jun 10, 2005

Yeah it happens. I rarely play a RL without at least break even ML play. The only middle ground is the -1 run that a few books offer. But I don't know about the real value of them.

FairWarning · Jun 10, 2005

What really sucked is that it was 4-0 Wash in the top of the 8th.

NoPartials · Jun 10, 2005

Been doing this for 35 years. It is the cost of doing business. I have found a way to avoid the grief; thus my name (No Partials). It doesn't matter how you arrive at the final score, therefore don't sweat them. When I learned this I became a more content gambler.

SkinsRaj28 · Jun 10, 2005

People give me crap for going with -1 all the time instead of -1.5...say I cost myself $. Well there have been multiple times this year where the -1 has saved my ass. So glad to see someone with some credibility speaking out against 1.5's!

MrTeaser · Jun 10, 2005

bucsfan67 said:
Do you see a team leading by 2 go into the 9th, and give up (1) RUN.....?

And this is NOT a sore loser thread, simply because i lost the Washington game, cuz i have won many like that myself, and am ahead for the night....It just reminded me how many times this seems to happen.....

They dont lose the game, but they give up that ONE RUN......

And no, i dont think its set up, i just think its odd how many times it happens....especially in LOW SCORING games where the team hasnt hit for the whole game, yet they manage to get that ONE RUN across the plate, that in the end means nothing towards the winner of the game...

Man if you saw the way that game ended you would have gone ballistic.

How Many Times?

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