TOR @ HOU over 9.5
A rare lefty vs lefty matchup @ Minute Maid Ballpark. The managers all over the league are aware of how hittable the lefties can be in this ballpark, and that's why we only had 14 L vs L matchups so far at this stadium (the under is 10-3-1 all time). No wonder why Astros started their season with only one lefty in their starting pitcher rotation and one lefty in their bullpen. As a matter of fact, last 7 L vs L matchups there went over the total with an average of 13.5 runs per game. This season alone, the lefty starters have a 5.96 era there, with Pettitte being the only starter that had any kind of success at all. The only lefty in Astros bullpen (Franco) has a 8.31 era at home. Today's lefty starter for Houston (Rodriguez) allowed 9 er in 2.2 innings pitched in his only home start this season. His overall era ytd is over 10. He is facing Lilly, another lefty, who has a 7.41 era overall and 8.81 era on the road. This is the third straight road start for Lilly after two West Coast starts and he'll also have to deal with the time zone change today. Houston actually can score runs at home (4.50 ppg) and they have been solid vs lefties there, with Mulder being the last victim. As for Toronto, they have been very impressive when given a day of rest to prepare for a lefty, as they scored 9 vs Wells and 10 vs Santana in this spot. If Lilly fails to go deep in this game, we may see two lefties from the Toronto Bullpen, who also tend to struggle on the road, Schoenweiss and Downs.
DET @ COL under 13
I'll continue to ride this Marroth trend even @ Coors Field. The under is now 15-0 in last 15 gms when Marroth (L) faces a righty opponent. His opponent today is Wright, a guy who's making a third straight Coors Field start, and he has been rather solid over there lately, with last two starts going under the total, and allowing 8 er in 18 ip in last 4 home starts, against some solid offenses in STL, ARI and CIN. Three of his best 4 starts this season came in this very same spot, when he faced a team for the first time of the season, in a game #1 of a series. The Tigers have never seen him before and that should help him. Marroth pitched in this stadium last two years so he should know what to expect there. Detroit has been struggling to put the runs on the board with a day of rest lately, and Colorado is comming of their first day off since early May, so my guess is, they didn't think a whole lot about baseball yesterday. I expect both offenses to be rusty today.
MIL @ PHI under 9
I think that a big majority of gamblers will continue to back the over in Phillies' home games even today, when we have two impressive pitchers on the mound. Not me. Myers (2.24 era) and Santos (2.71 era) are strikeout specialists and they shoult be able to strike out quite a few batters today. The Brewers are #2 in K's this season and Philly is #7. Santos has 6 K's in 5 of his last 7 starts, and Myers averages over a strikeout per inning pitched, with two 10 K games this season and at least 5 K's in every home start ytd. Both pitchers are allowing some long balls, but what impresses me about them is the fact that their home runs allowed are usually not hurting them that much. Santos allowed 6 HR in last 7 starts and all 7 were solo home runs. Seven of last eight Myers' home runs, were solo jobs as well. Philly bats are due to cool off, and I think that's going to happen today, when they face a hot pitcher, after facing a pathetic Texas pitching yesterday. Milwaukee offense has been pathetic when coming off of a day of rest, producing 4 straight unders, whiule scoring under 3 runs per game and no home runs.
Good luck,
WS
A rare lefty vs lefty matchup @ Minute Maid Ballpark. The managers all over the league are aware of how hittable the lefties can be in this ballpark, and that's why we only had 14 L vs L matchups so far at this stadium (the under is 10-3-1 all time). No wonder why Astros started their season with only one lefty in their starting pitcher rotation and one lefty in their bullpen. As a matter of fact, last 7 L vs L matchups there went over the total with an average of 13.5 runs per game. This season alone, the lefty starters have a 5.96 era there, with Pettitte being the only starter that had any kind of success at all. The only lefty in Astros bullpen (Franco) has a 8.31 era at home. Today's lefty starter for Houston (Rodriguez) allowed 9 er in 2.2 innings pitched in his only home start this season. His overall era ytd is over 10. He is facing Lilly, another lefty, who has a 7.41 era overall and 8.81 era on the road. This is the third straight road start for Lilly after two West Coast starts and he'll also have to deal with the time zone change today. Houston actually can score runs at home (4.50 ppg) and they have been solid vs lefties there, with Mulder being the last victim. As for Toronto, they have been very impressive when given a day of rest to prepare for a lefty, as they scored 9 vs Wells and 10 vs Santana in this spot. If Lilly fails to go deep in this game, we may see two lefties from the Toronto Bullpen, who also tend to struggle on the road, Schoenweiss and Downs.
DET @ COL under 13
I'll continue to ride this Marroth trend even @ Coors Field. The under is now 15-0 in last 15 gms when Marroth (L) faces a righty opponent. His opponent today is Wright, a guy who's making a third straight Coors Field start, and he has been rather solid over there lately, with last two starts going under the total, and allowing 8 er in 18 ip in last 4 home starts, against some solid offenses in STL, ARI and CIN. Three of his best 4 starts this season came in this very same spot, when he faced a team for the first time of the season, in a game #1 of a series. The Tigers have never seen him before and that should help him. Marroth pitched in this stadium last two years so he should know what to expect there. Detroit has been struggling to put the runs on the board with a day of rest lately, and Colorado is comming of their first day off since early May, so my guess is, they didn't think a whole lot about baseball yesterday. I expect both offenses to be rusty today.
MIL @ PHI under 9
I think that a big majority of gamblers will continue to back the over in Phillies' home games even today, when we have two impressive pitchers on the mound. Not me. Myers (2.24 era) and Santos (2.71 era) are strikeout specialists and they shoult be able to strike out quite a few batters today. The Brewers are #2 in K's this season and Philly is #7. Santos has 6 K's in 5 of his last 7 starts, and Myers averages over a strikeout per inning pitched, with two 10 K games this season and at least 5 K's in every home start ytd. Both pitchers are allowing some long balls, but what impresses me about them is the fact that their home runs allowed are usually not hurting them that much. Santos allowed 6 HR in last 7 starts and all 7 were solo home runs. Seven of last eight Myers' home runs, were solo jobs as well. Philly bats are due to cool off, and I think that's going to happen today, when they face a hot pitcher, after facing a pathetic Texas pitching yesterday. Milwaukee offense has been pathetic when coming off of a day of rest, producing 4 straight unders, whiule scoring under 3 runs per game and no home runs.
Good luck,
WS
Last play today: BOS @ CHC under 9.5
The under is now 11-0-1 in last 12 RvsR matchups @ Wrigley Field. Both the Cubs and the Redsox are struggling offensively lately, as the Redsox failed to score more than 4 runs in last three games, while the Cubbies failed to score more than 4 runs in their last 4 games. B.Arroyo has a better era on the road (3.15) than at home, and Maddux has a better era at home (3.41) than on the road. Arrojo had only one bad start in last 9 games and Maddux had only one bad start in last 10. When you see Arroyo as a small favorite, it usally means that he is facing a pitcher who is just as good, if not better, than him. In these games he is favored only because he is playing for the World Champs, and not because he is better than the opponent's pitcher. Five times this season he has been favored by -130 or less, and the RedSox are only 3-2 in these games, despite the fact that Arroyo allowed only 8 er in 34 ip in those games. That tells me that the opponent pitchers he faced were very good too. And when Maddux is pitching as an underdog, or when he is at pkem, he allowed 13 er in 30 ip this season. Even if there is a strong wind today, I expect both pitchers to stay out of the home run trouble, as they both love to keep the ball down and away from the batters. Boston's bullpen allowed only 2 er in last 10.1 innings of work and Chicago bullpen allowed only 2 er in last 10 innings of work. Boston scored 4 runs or less in 8 of 9 games comming off of a day of rest this season and the Cubs are 4-1 to the under in this spot in their last 5 games.
Good luck all and see ya'll tomorrow.
WS
The under is now 11-0-1 in last 12 RvsR matchups @ Wrigley Field. Both the Cubs and the Redsox are struggling offensively lately, as the Redsox failed to score more than 4 runs in last three games, while the Cubbies failed to score more than 4 runs in their last 4 games. B.Arroyo has a better era on the road (3.15) than at home, and Maddux has a better era at home (3.41) than on the road. Arrojo had only one bad start in last 9 games and Maddux had only one bad start in last 10. When you see Arroyo as a small favorite, it usally means that he is facing a pitcher who is just as good, if not better, than him. In these games he is favored only because he is playing for the World Champs, and not because he is better than the opponent's pitcher. Five times this season he has been favored by -130 or less, and the RedSox are only 3-2 in these games, despite the fact that Arroyo allowed only 8 er in 34 ip in those games. That tells me that the opponent pitchers he faced were very good too. And when Maddux is pitching as an underdog, or when he is at pkem, he allowed 13 er in 30 ip this season. Even if there is a strong wind today, I expect both pitchers to stay out of the home run trouble, as they both love to keep the ball down and away from the batters. Boston's bullpen allowed only 2 er in last 10.1 innings of work and Chicago bullpen allowed only 2 er in last 10 innings of work. Boston scored 4 runs or less in 8 of 9 games comming off of a day of rest this season and the Cubs are 4-1 to the under in this spot in their last 5 games.
Good luck all and see ya'll tomorrow.
WS
current weather in chicago
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/60613?eventid=150181&epc=be
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/60613?eventid=150181&epc=be
