Sometimes the public is right.

Fezzik · Jun 10, 2005

I was listening to 1460 AM (Fox Sports Radio) here in Las Vegas a few days ago, where it was brought up that pro bettors love to "fade the public" and go against them. This "basic strategy" works well overall, but there certainly are speed bumps and land mines in the way. As correctly pointed out on the radio, sometimes the public is right!!

Example of a basic strategy play here in the NBA playoffs will soon to be to look to play Piston/Spurs games OVER in game 3, if game 2 goes under, based on every person who will be dogpiling onto their unders. (An earlier example was looking to play PHX/SA under from game 3 on, after games 1 and 2 went over).

Last year, Journeyman and others correctly predicted the Pats were the class of the NFL and would roll again. Many others (that would be me), pooh-poohed this and sternly reminded all that "You look to fade the SB champ", period.

I really think the best of the best pro bettors follow the "basic strategy" guidelines 95% of the time, but are able to spot the 5% gems as well accurately.

Ps. Heavy sigh, based on everything I see, I will be fading those Pats once again this year, as I think the coaching changes and NFL parity will finally catch up to them.

Journeyman · Jun 10, 2005

I had an awful NFL season...somewhere around .500 slightly over but not making any money that is for sure...every week the favorites prevailed no mater how far that line went out...Indy , NE Pitt, Philly, SD, the books couldn't put the line high enough...it certainly was not a good year for the dog players who generally looked for dogs.

I do generally go against the grain in the NFL, mainly dogs, never laying more than 3..I think I bet -3.5 once on OMT recomendation GB-3.5 over Minnesota and that game saw the Vikes score two late Tds in the last 2 minutes only to end up losing by 3.

New England will not repeat again lol...I'm on record right now....fade Pittsburgh too

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jun 10, 2005

Are you kidding, I got killed at NFL hovering around 50%. Worst year in 12. Had bad beats repeat. Two +4 dogs make it to OT, get TD'd. Two last play of game official called safety to snap my dog. Countless unders snapped on returns, ot's. Watched a guy at Carib go 15-0 in 3 weeks with nothing but chalk. That is demoralizing to a dog player. I began to expect and received a bad beat a week. The public was always winning, and I was always losing. Problem was I was doing what I had done for 10+ years, and all of a sudden, not only was it not working, but it was just getting smashed. Dogs were just dogs. Public teams covered every week, almost every team. I sure hope this is an anamoly. Because I am not about to start betting chalk and over.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

winbet · Jun 10, 2005

What people really have to know is the difference between Public Money and stupid money. Then make a value judgement on the position.

BoratSagdiyev · Jun 10, 2005

If all you "sharps" fade the public with your 3 dime bets then much more money will be bet on the dogs. Making you in essence the real public. In this era of information the one who thinks he is sharp is actually the square.

Ancient Kazakhi secret

max1234 · Jun 10, 2005

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 1994239" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Borat Sagdiyev</TD><TD class=alt2>If all you "sharps" fade the public with your 3 dime bets then much more money will be bet on the dogs. Making you in essence the real public. In this era of information the one who thinks he is sharp is actually the square.

Ancient Kazakhi secret</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

"Idiots who think the know ancient Kazakhi secrets are actually the true square"

New American secret

RobFunk · Jun 10, 2005

Borat Sagdiyev said:
If all you "sharps" fade the public with your 3 dime bets then much more money will be bet on the dogs. Making you in essence the real public. In this era of information the one who thinks he is sharp is actually the square.

I have noticed the progression towards this also. theres so many guys posted up 4 and 5 figures at 6+ books these days. It is not the free for all it was in 2001 on down. NFL has been a brutal sport to fade the public in for probably 4 years now

WildBill · Jun 10, 2005

Fezzik, I saw in the LV Sun article you were going to be debating Rob Singer today, is my timing correct on this? I gotta hear this one, may you leave him stammering and lost!

Fezzik · Jun 10, 2005

Today at 2:30-3:00, 1460 Fox Sports Radio

Archived at cardplayer.com, poker media, grossman show

Hitman26 · Jun 10, 2005

I wish I could have picked 50% last year in the NFL. I probably was closer to 40% than 50%. I love to bet home dogs and I got my ass handed to me last year. Go back and look the the cover rate of the Eagles for the last 3 or 4 years.

Journeyman · Jun 10, 2005

Fading Pitt and SD killed me

winbet · Jun 10, 2005

Borat Sagdiyev said:
If all you "sharps" fade the public with your 3 dime bets then much more money will be bet on the dogs. Making you in essence the real public. In this era of information the one who thinks he is sharp is actually the square.

Ancient Kazakhi secret

Borat,
Classic stuff, as usual people complicate situations. :103631605

DarrylParsons · Jun 10, 2005

I think we are in a new paradigm in which the basic strategy of public fades, dogs and unders is no longer enough to get an edge, probably because of Borat's keen Kazakhi insights. :103631605

Dawoofdaddy · Jun 10, 2005

Dogs and unders certainly not what they once were.

Hitman26 · Jun 10, 2005

I don't know Darryl, because the books were getting spanked in the NFL by the Favs last year. The points kept rising but the favs still kept covering. The oddsmakers will adjust a lot faster this year if things start to resemble what went on last year. I think the system of playing the home dogs will pay off this year.

IMONTILT · Jun 10, 2005

Last year, Journeyman and others correctly predicted the Pats were the class of the NFL and would roll again. Many others (that would be me), pooh-poohed this and sternly reminded all that "You look to fade the SB champ", period.

WHATS YOUR POINT I'VE BET AGAINST THE PATS IN THE LAST 2 SUPERBOWLS AND HAVE CASHED $$$$$$$$$.

IMONTILT · Jun 10, 2005

The regular season is one thing but allways be careful of single game situations.

Journeyman · Jun 10, 2005

IM ON TILT said:
WHATS YOUR POINT I'VE BET AGAINST THE PATS IN THE LAST 2 SUPERBOWLS AND HAVE CASHED $$$$$$$$$.

He wasn't referring to the Super Bowl game....talking about the season in general where I predicted last August the Pats would roll again and probably wouldn't lose more than 2 games :howdy:

Journeyman · Jun 10, 2005

Hitman26 said:
I don't know Darryl, because the books were getting spanked in the NFL by the Favs last year. The points kept rising but the favs still kept covering. The oddsmakers will adjust a lot faster this year if things start to resemble what went on last year. I think the system of playing the home dogs will pay off this year.

hopefully

winbet · Jun 10, 2005

I'm going to kill this thread right now by saying its a load of Bollocks. I'm fed up of hearing the public angle, all it is, is people who think they have the jump on the rest of the World.

I will prove my point, anyone want to bet with me at EVENS, against the Public.

Lets get away from this I know better than you, public shit and talk positive. Lets have some opinions on games etc, not on how to be smart.

PS: I will admit to be part of the problem, and talk crap