Simple Little concept worth watching

SSI · Jun 10, 2005

coming into today, the last 102 games played, i have sported a 50-52 (+$1552) or (+15.52 units)..

playing every home team as a dog, if they were a dog to start with (i played them on the ML), if they were the favorite (i played them on the RL and made them the dog)(+juice)..

flat bet every game for $100..

just something to look at, after tonight ill have 117 games in..

a .500 record would make you very wealthy, over a large amount of games..

STONER · Jun 10, 2005

SSI,

on the surface concept does indeed sound intriguing. would you still play the RL (assuming 1.5) if it was chalk?

i.e. 1.5 (-1.15)

stoner

SSI · Jun 10, 2005

no.... i have to have (+ juice) and flat bet 100% of the time.. it seems you plug along with some break even days, some small losing days and then bam (a big winning day)..

today for example is: 9-3 (+$788) with 3 games still pending.... overall now 58 wins and 55 losses (+$2240), over the last 113 games..

not going to post the plays or anything like that, just thought id mention this, so anyone could take a look....

SkinsRaj28 · Jun 10, 2005

That's unreal...keep updating that like weekly, might be a keeper system. I'm very interested to see the results on a weekly basis.

SHACK · Jun 10, 2005

SSI said:
coming into today, the last 102 games played, i have sported a 50-52 (+$1552) or (+15.52 units)..

playing every home team as a dog, if they were a dog to start with (i played them on the ML), if they were the favorite (i played them on the RL and made them the dog)(+juice)..

flat bet every game for $100..

just something to look at, after tonight ill have 117 games in..

a .500 record would make you very wealthy, over a large amount of games..

Thanks for the insight. Good to know. I know Bucs has been doing well with his RL's as of late.

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

last night turned really sour, i had to go back and count AZ as a loser, they gave up 8 in last 2 innings and won by just one...

here are the results from 9 days: 57-59 (+16.92 units) (+$1692)

some may have had dodgers a home dog but i had them on RL.. monday im going to start playing (1/2 unit ML)(1/2 unit RL)...

ill update every once in a while, as long as i play it...

Journeyman · Jun 11, 2005

SSI said:
coming into today, the last 102 games played, i have sported a 50-52 (+$1552) or (+15.52 units)..

playing every home team as a dog, if they were a dog to start with (i played them on the ML), if they were the favorite (i played them on the RL and made them the dog)(+juice)..

flat bet every game for $100..

just something to look at, after tonight ill have 117 games in..

a .500 record would make you very wealthy, over a large amount of games..

just want to double check SSI...you are then playing every game on the board correct?

heart222 · Jun 11, 2005

it appears that there are 2 people at this forum who are mechanical systam fantics. you and me. One of the problems with all systems is that at some point they revert back to the mean. so if a team is say 18-6 at home and we start playing them you know they are going to go 4-12 and come back to 55%. If you dont think it posssible look at fl. By the way betting 1/2 rl 1/2 ml will change the math enormorsly as you will lose more in the 52 losses and win less on the 1/2 wins. it seems like the 1 run games go in cycles lots of them and then very few. i did polish middles on balt and boston in apr early may and cashed them all but found the risk/reward to be dangerous.

i use rl over 175 and yet over 1.75 cashes enough to be a net winner so its hard to say whats best. my correlated parlays went 0-5 last night after going 3 out 5 the other night. everything comes back to the norm oh yes i had az on the rl also. regards as usual. bobk

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

Jman, yes risking $100 on the entire board ($1500 total risk)...

57-59 (+$1692) over the last 116 plays..

thx bobk, i am going to leave it (as ive been doing it), got a free shot with almost $1700 of their money.. if it goes sour, ill stop... before i give it all back..

i was searching for something that, encompassed a large amount of plays (flat bet), that could go .500 and make a good profit, Is this it, time will tell i guess..

LucaBrasi · Jun 11, 2005

Make that 3. I dug SSI's NBA totals thing.

Hey Heart - 55% would be sweet money betting dogs, no?

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

ok guys here are my plays for today, and remember waiting until later, on the dogs (could get you a better price) but i dont have the time today..

dog system: 57-59 (+16.92 units)

phil RL (+1.43)
cubs RL (+1.46)
cards ML (+1.06)
braves RL (+1.31)
marlins ML (+1.25)
wash RL (+1.68)
pitt RL (+1.44)
hou RL (+1.51)
mets RL (+1.96)
reds ML (+1.00)
col ML (+1.05)
sd ML (+1.18)
lad RL (+1.91)
az RL (+1.26)
sf RL (+1.62)

there you have it, looks like a lot but only $1500 risk, and remember a day of 7 wins and 8 losses -- would be good.. all flat bet at pinny (listed pitchers)..

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

1-2 on early games (-$69), the cubs game is what makes this system frustrating at times, they give me the win in the bottom of 8th and take it away in top of 9th by giving up 2 runs.. i knew manny would kill me.. that was a ($246 swing)..

frustrating but thats the way it goes, lets see what happens tonight...

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

6-3 now on the day (+$494) still need at least one more win today, to guarantee a winning day.. could be close as not much looks good right now.. 6 more pending..

mrpotter1 · Jun 11, 2005

SSI, you might want to look into pinnacle's -1 run lines also. I am sure that there was at least a few games you could have had teams at -1 run and a dog and pushed rather than having lost that game by the extra 1/2 run. I am not sure but the Cubs might have been a dog -1 run and you could have pushed.

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

already thought about it potter... it would take away alot of plays to do this across the board, i could do some this way... dont know how long, ill do this..

mrpotter1 · Jun 11, 2005

For example: Phil, Atl, Wash, Fla, and STL are all dogs tommorrow on the -1 run line. It only takes a couple of these pushes a week to make up the extra vig you are giving up vs. the -1 1/2 line.

SSI · Jun 11, 2005

got to also count, the payback will be less on all the winners.....

mrpotter1 · Jun 11, 2005

Yes, but you lost 3 games already today by the 1/2 point and it would have been 4 without the Houston homer. You will need the same luck in the Mets game. That is anywhere from 3-5 pushes alone today!

CHOPTALK · Jun 12, 2005

SSI, how about doing a combination -1 and -1.5 system. Take -1 on all the games that will make the Fav on the moneyline a dog. And take the -1.5 on all games that a -1 wont make a fav a dog. This way you get + money on all games which is what you are trying to accomplish. Meaning a 50% record will guarentee a profit.

SSI · Jun 12, 2005

nice valid points fellas... got the win on mets btw, dont guess i could pull another one out..

Mr. Potter, what about all the wins on the RL, the profits on all those would be greatly reduced..

all good points to consider, someone should make a chart and track this, all 3 ways, and give results after 100 plays or something..