Repost "When to Bet the Baseball Games?" No one cared in the Main Forum!

Dubpoet · Jun 10, 2005

Well, we all know that the lines change from overnight to game time and a sharp baseball bettor has to make money saving decisions every day.

I am not a scalper just love Baseball and it is the reason I am here and the reason I bet. I bet favorites, Dogs, and totals!

Assuming you have good lines and overnight ability-- which we all do if we are serious about winning in Baseball, what do we do and when do we bet?

My opinion is this:

If you are betting a favorite that is a good team with an all-star pitcher vs inferior team and pitcher, then bet it right away. Lines usually grow on these games. And the best places for overnight obvious favorites are Pinnacle (8 cent lines) and 5 Dimes (5 cent lines)

If you are on a dog with no particular reason (ie they are the inferior team and there is no pitching advantage in your favor) then wait till game time and get the best line.

If you are on a good match up with two good teams and two good pitchers, then wait on the favorite and take the dog early.

If your on a total, Good Luck!

All comments welcome!:digit:

C-LO · Jun 10, 2005

Very well written! Good luck throughout your year!

Omni · Jun 10, 2005

Interesting stuff Dubpoet.

Over time, I've developed another simple, yet true saying watching how the lines move against which games I like on the overnight.

And it's a very simple rule: If it really stands out and looks good to you, then it will probably look good to a lot of other people as well! (translation: If it stands out to you as an off number, don't wait till the next day to see if a consensous of 5 of your other favorite cappers agrees with you. Trust your instincts and play it right away, and most of the time you'll be saving yourself money.)

SHACK · Jun 10, 2005

Dub, that all sounds about right. A lot of times it just goes with the feel and what you think the line should be. If you feel you have value in the line bet it now, if your surprised by the line being over adjusted to what you originally thought, then wait on it.

Dubpoet · Jun 11, 2005

C-LO said:
Very well written! Good luck throughout your year!

C-LO I asked for your email and I'll get to you and find out whats up :103631605

C-LO · Jun 11, 2005

Thanks Dubby! Keep up the good work as well!

Lawrence · Jun 11, 2005

I don't think this is a direct answer to your question, but I find when I bet baseball favortites, I do it as early as possible...especially since 5 dimes is pretty much my fave, and they have good overnight prices...

Dubpoet · Jun 11, 2005

Lawrence said:
I don't think this is a direct answer to your question, but I find when I bet baseball favortites, I do it as early as possible...especially since 5 dimes is pretty much my fave, and they have good overnight prices...

Lawrence, This is the first main point to my Thread. It may not be true for all favorites but is true for the big favorites. The difference between 170 to 180 overnight and 210 to 220 at game time is HUGE over time. I bet more favorites than anyone I know and have found a way to win on them. I do bet Dogs a little and Totals too. You won't find Bucs or Madcapper on many plays at -180 or more. I use a combo of knowledge and "team is hot" or "team is due" on some of these big favorites. Any doubts take it out like Sele vs Beckett. Or Glavine vs Pettite.

Anyway 5 dimes is great but Pinny has the best 1.5 and alternate 1.5 lines.

Lawrence · Jun 11, 2005

like i'll probably want to take philly tommorrow...right now its -142 @5dimes...i know its probably gonna be higher by gametime since its probably a "public" play

Dubpoet · Jun 11, 2005

Lawrence said:
like i'll probably want to take philly tommorrow...right now its -142 @5dimes...i know its probably gonna be higher by gametime since its probably a "public" play

I have been on Philly all during the hot streak and even hit Zona that one game with Halsey. I probably will pass. Wolf is a fly ball pitcher and is still adjusting to the new park. I will look at the stats. It looks to me like a good over play in parlays with 5 dimes alternate totals like say 8.0 over. Not sure yet. So no real opinion other than there is no way I would bet Brewers.

Dubpoet · Jun 11, 2005

By the way Lawrence, if you can find them and you are available during the day, Take a look at BIGJOE's totals for mlb at bettingtalk, my home forum. He is pretty good. I miss most while at work but, as a small side thing with not much juice on a total, it does win.

Lawrence · Jun 11, 2005

cool man... :103631605

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