Another poster said that in the first game between Tennessee and Florida,that he got Tennessee at the opening line of -119. I didn't see it till I saw it at 5 dimes at -157. Today,I saw it at Pinnacle at -210. Why has this line gone up so much? I can't recall a line going up that much. The linesmakers are never that far off. Any feedback would be appreciated.
I think part of it has to do with the fact that Tennessee had 2 first round picks in the draft and another player drafted in the second round. I have notice that there is sometimes a bias when one team has quite a few high draft picks.
I think the line is too high.
I think the line is too high.
Curt -
As mentioned before, linemakers have been doing a terrible job of pricing these games. VERY VERY Far off. I think you've been missing college ball in general if you thought this line was off compared to some others. When you consider Nebraska is -230 over Arizona State in Omaha, and then recall:
Cal State Fullerton -180 over Harvard
Clemson -200 over College of Charleston
Tennessee -180 over Winthrop
etc
etc
etc
Now you see why I dumped my enitre account on those games and now they have set a limit on what you can bet. Most books have put parlays in effect now, so it can be a useful tool for lowering juice on favorites, if used properly.
Lots of caoches privately will tell you, once you get to Omaha it's a crap-shoot for the title. No team in Omaha should be favored by more than -220 for the most part.
As for the Tenn/Florida game...
I think alot of SQUARES just look at starting pitchers. They see Hochevar was drafted in the 1st round for the Vols, while Boss for the Gators went undrafted...Vols should win right? I assure you the Gators didn't win the SEC by accident, the same conference the Vols play in. I have a few different reasons for taking Tenn, mainly because I know the Florida team extremely well. But once this line reaches -200, I think the Gators might have to become a play at that price.
As mentioned before, linemakers have been doing a terrible job of pricing these games. VERY VERY Far off. I think you've been missing college ball in general if you thought this line was off compared to some others. When you consider Nebraska is -230 over Arizona State in Omaha, and then recall:
Cal State Fullerton -180 over Harvard
Clemson -200 over College of Charleston
Tennessee -180 over Winthrop
etc
etc
etc
Now you see why I dumped my enitre account on those games and now they have set a limit on what you can bet. Most books have put parlays in effect now, so it can be a useful tool for lowering juice on favorites, if used properly.
Lots of caoches privately will tell you, once you get to Omaha it's a crap-shoot for the title. No team in Omaha should be favored by more than -220 for the most part.
As for the Tenn/Florida game...
I think alot of SQUARES just look at starting pitchers. They see Hochevar was drafted in the 1st round for the Vols, while Boss for the Gators went undrafted...Vols should win right? I assure you the Gators didn't win the SEC by accident, the same conference the Vols play in. I have a few different reasons for taking Tenn, mainly because I know the Florida team extremely well. But once this line reaches -200, I think the Gators might have to become a play at that price.
UT line movement is because of Luke Hochevar - a stud of a pitcher. He faced Florida on April 29 - and here is the boxscore:
http://utsports.collegesports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2004-2005/ut0429.html
this line - and ASU/Steroid M0ngers is getting to the point where i am almost "forced" to bet BOTH dogs - especially getting at least +200 on both
http://utsports.collegesports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2004-2005/ut0429.html
this line - and ASU/Steroid M0ngers is getting to the point where i am almost "forced" to bet BOTH dogs - especially getting at least +200 on both
Budworth22 said:
Dead on with that one. Some of the seniors are former teammates of mine. Their hitters are taught to work pitch counts, especially against starters like Hochevar. UF will try to get Hochevar into a high pitch count and get him out of the game and get to the bullpen. They'll also put a lot of pressure on Hochevar and make him think about other things, they'll push bunt or drag bunt to force him to field his position, and they'll force him to pick over with big leads. Every at -bat they will make him throw 4 pitches or more to elevate his pitch count and make him work. Once Hochevar realizes they are taking, they'll be unleashed and get some good pitches to hit.
Problem is if he's throwing strikes, most of their hitters will be overmatched. If Boss pitches the game of his life, we're looking at 7 IP 2 ER. That's just another day at the yard for Hochevar. Boss' last two outings have been the respective games of his life, and I just can't see him doing it again against this offense. The Gators strength lies in their experienced pitching, that's why they're here. But against Hochevar that gets thrown out the window. Their offense has too many sophomores, and they'll be overmatched.
However, like I said at +200, their coach is known as a scrappy guy. He'll bunt, steal and give guys a take sign and do anything to work Hochevar's pitch count and get men on base. If Boss can keep them in the game, and the Gators get a couple big hits, they could be a live dog, especially at that price.
Overall, if you get the Vols at -199 or less, I'd grab them. If you get them at -200 or more, I would lay off or play the Gators with that value.
