A five-team race on deck in NL East

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John Schuerholz had it right in December, but nobody believed him.
For anyone listening, it was obvious the Atlanta Braves general manager was just blowing smoke when he proclaimed any of the National League East teams more than capable of winning the division this season.

That was like predicting the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are poised to win the World Series.

Schuerholz, one of the most astute — and successful — general managers in baseball history, was on target. You don't win 13 consecutive division titles, including 10 in a row in the East with an average margin of 10 1/2 games, by sugarcoating reality. (Related item: Close races in the six-division era)

"I predicted then this would be a very tight, very contested dogfight of a race from the beginning to the end," Schuerholz says. "I didn't think there was any club structured going into spring training that was significantly better, or significantly worse, than the others."

Schuerholz says today "this division will be settled the last week of the season. There's tremendous balance."

At this stage of the season, a strong case can be made that any team could win the division — and any team is capable of finishing last.

"When we start playing each other (in the division), we're going to be butting heads," Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel says. "It's going to be close to the wire."

Since 1994, when MLB adopted its six-division format, this is the fourth time all teams in a division are 6 1/2 games apart. According to Bob Waterman of Elias Sports Bureau, that last happened in 1997 in the NL and American League Central divisions.

There's a significant difference this time. Every team in the NL East is .500 or better.

As recently as June 7, the first- and last-place teams were separated by 1 1/2 games.

Critics say the parity means this is a weak division. I disagree. In 1997 when the NL Central teams were bunched, not one of them was at .500. That was a show of weakness.

If the season were to end today, the wild card would come from the NL East — the Phillies. That's not a sign of a weak division.

Two factors have made the East so tight. First, the Braves, favored to win their 14th title, have struggled with slumping performances and injuries. Second, and maybe even more important, is the Washington Nationals.

A third could be the Florida Marlins. Though Dontrelle Willis (11-2, 2.06 ERA) is the best pitcher in the NL on a staff of talented young hurlers, they've been far from consistent.

Thanks to a superb job by GM Jim Bowden, manager Frank Robinson and President Tony Tavares, the Nationals have been 2005's biggest surprise. Entering Thursday, they led the division by three games over Philadelphia and won all but nine of their 33 home games. Their 10-game winning streak was halted Monday.

The former Montreal Expos' success is amazing, considering as many as 11 players had been on the disabled list at one time.

"The team has had success, and the fans are reacting to us," Tavares says. "Think of any performer. When people appreciate what you're doing, the performer seems to raise it a level. That's what's happened for us. When we get in front of our fans, you can see and feel it."

The New York Mets, with the third-highest payroll ($104.7 million) in the majors after an offseason spending spree to sign free agents Pedro Martinez ($53 million) and Carlos Beltran ($119 million) and re-sign Kris Benson ($22.5 million), are trying to improve on 2004's fourth-place finish.

New GM Omar Minaya, who guided the Expos the last three years, says any of the five teams can win. "This winter we were able to acquire two pieces (Martinez and Beltran), but there's a lot of work to be done here," he says. "Don't forget, it's only June."

The Braves are riddled with injuries and a disappointing season by their new reliever, Dan Kolb, who had 39 saves with the Milwaukee Brewers last year. He lost his Atlanta closer's job after allowing 28 hits and 20 walks in 22 innings.

Schuerholz says "significant injuries to starters Mike Hampton and John Thompson, a nagging injury to Tim Hudson (who went on the DL on Thursday) plus Kolb's ineffectiveness have hurt. That's our closer and three-fifths of our starting rotation. Plus our best player, Chipper Jones, is out from four to six weeks."

Regardless, Schuerholz believes the balance in the division will prevail "and over the long haul there's going to be a lot of us who'll knock each other off."

Minaya says pay close attention to the schedule when teams began playing each other. Eastern teams face each other 19 times.

Those matchups resume next week, with more scheduled around the July 13 All-Star Game. September should be exciting because nearly all the games are within the division.

"That's the key," Minaya says. "That's when it's going to be fun. That's ... a true battle."

The Phillies, who traded versatile infielder Placido Polanco to the Detroit Tigers last week for reliever Ugueth Urbina, made the deal to bolster their bullpen but also to keep the Mets and Marlins from getting the proven closer.

One errant player move now could make a difference in September. With so many teams close and with a chance to win, normally you can expect a flurry of trades before the July 31 deadline. Schuerholz isn't so sure.

"You'd think one team will not allow another outmaneuver or be more aggressive," he says. "Trades today are so problematic. Ordinarily, there would be a lot of trades, but in this era I'm not so sure."

Around the horn

Garagiola remembers

When Joe Garagiola was gaining national prominence with appearances on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson, he often would tell hilarious stories about his days playing with the dreadful Pittsburgh Pirates, who lost 112 games in 1952. The brunt of many of his jokes was Pirates teammate Brandy Davis, a good-field, no-hit outfielder from Duke. Davis, who played two (1952-53) seasons for the Pirates, became an outstanding major league coach and scout, working for a dozen teams before retiring last year.

Davis, 77, died Sunday in Newark, Del., which prompted Garagiola to remember the best story he ever told about the former college track standout that had the late Carson falling off his chair.

"I led off the inning with a walk against Cincinnati," Garagiola says, retelling the story. "Gus Bell followed with a single to right field, and I motored to third base. They put in Brandy Davis to run for Bell because he could fly. The batter was Ralph Kiner, the only guy in the whole organization who could hit the ball out of the park.

"All of a sudden I look up, and Brandy's going to steal second base, with Kiner up? From the dugout, I could hear our manager, Billy Meyer, shouting, 'Shoot him! Shoot him!' I couldn't believe it, but they didn't walk Kiner even though first base was open. Now, Brandy's on second, and I'm on third. I look up and Brandy's getting a big lead, an even bigger lead. And here he comes. He steals third, sliding in. Everybody was shocked. I said, 'Brandy, where the hell are you going?' Without missing a beat, he said, 'Back to second, if I can make it.' " Fiction? Garagiola wouldn't say. He did say what an outstanding baseball man Davis was and how much he'll be missed.

D-Rays ownership update

The reported plan of succession when New York investor Stuart Sternberg paid $65 million for 48% of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays was for him to succeed Vince Naimoli after 2006. Mention this to Naimoli, and he avoids a specific date. "I work seven days a week, get up at 4 in the morning and get home at 1 a.m.," he told USA TODAY this week. "After all these years it's getting old. I'm at the age (67) where I'd like to taste fruit a little bit. I'm not going anywhere — I want to see this be a success, but on the other hand I'd like to work a little less."

He said it

"I have no respect for him anymore because I'm still hurt from what happened last year. Mike Scioscia to me is like a piece of garbage. I don't care if I get in trouble. He can go to hell."

Jose Guillen, Washington Nationals outfielder, after beating the Los Angeles Angels and former manager Mike Scioscia 1-0 Wednesday. Guillen was suspended in the last week of the season by the Angels for insubordination.

Hal Bodley USA Today
 

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