Florida Gators vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Sr. RHP Tommy Boss vs. Fr. RHP Johnny Dorn
General Impression
Nebraska and Florida may be the two hottest teams in the country right now. Both have yet to lose in the postseason, Nebraska doing it with superb pitching, and the Gators doing it with just enough pitching and great hitting. In this matchup, we'll see freshman pitcher vs. senior pitcher, with a sea of red in Nebraska's corner.
Florida's Pitcher
The Gators will start senior RHP Tommy Boss. Boss is not dominant, will not over power you, and will not strike you out. He relies on a 2-seam fastball that gets tremendous Greg Maddux-esque run, a devastating changeup he throws to left handed hitters, and a good curveball that he throws to righties. He has been hittable throughout his career, but he has earned the nickname "Postseason Boss" for his ability to step up his game in the post-season. How much? In the past 2 postseason's as a starter, Boss is 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 4 complete games in 5 starts. This year he has had two starts, his first was a complete game victory over North Carolina, his next was a complete game victory over FSU in supers 8-1.
Nebraska's Pitcher
Nebraska starts freshman Johnny Dorn. The freshman has been phenomenal this year, and has accepted an invite to play for Team USA. 12-1 1.98 ERA. This postseason has been a different story. He hasn't been able to get out of the 7th inning this year. He gave up 6 hits and 4 runs to Creighton in regionals, and had a better showing against Miami getting knocked out in the 6th after getting into a possible game deciding jam. Dorn is another pitcher that will not over power you, and he will be around the plate, he won't strike out batters and he will let his defense work.
The Nebraska Mismatch
Nebraska will be in front of a sea of red of 25,000 Husker fans, in the most hostile environment in Gator history. Although they are 1-4 in school history in Omaha, they looked impressive and should be able to continue to feed off of their fans and make it tough on the opposing teams. However, how much does crowd noise really help in this game? Does it warrant this much of an inflated line? This isn't a true home field for the Huskers. They do not play home games at Rosenblatt stadium and they are just as familiar with their surroundings, bad hops, speed of the infield, etc as Florida is.
The Gator Mismatch
The Gators field a hitting team that is also much better than shown on paper. They have bench players that are good hitters that they can use in lefty-righty situations off the bench. They have a couple of guys who can get on base on the top of the order, and they have big RBI men in the middle, and situational bunters and contact guys in the bottom of the order. The bottom of the order went 5 for 8 against Hochevar with only 1 strikeout and 3 walks. After facing Hochevar and hitting him around, Florida has to be confident in their ability to hit any pitcher, especially a freshman Johnny Dorn. From day 1 I felt Nebraska just wont be able to get away with pitching their way through games. At some point, they're going to have to hit. Their offense struggles to put up runs.
Bottom Line
Who wins this game? If the line was a pick'em, or Nebraska with small juice, I'm going with Nebraska. Nebraska wins this particular game 6 times out of 10 with these particular pitchers on the mound. I don't think that warrants the line that we're seeing. No doubt, Nebraska has to be the favorite to win this game. But do I want to risk 4 units to win 2, or 2 units to win 4?
In a game that I feel will be deciding by hitting, I'll take the better hitting team that is a huge underdog. You have two pitchers on the mound that can pitch well, but are also vulnerable to giving up hits. This game should be a good one, and I'll take the dog.
My Line:
Nebraska -140
My Play:
(2 units) Florida +190
Nebraska wins this game 60% of the time. But if you continue to follow my plays, we will win over the long run on plays like this. This play may lose, but the next underdog will win. Or vise-versa. This isn't a game I recommend loading up on, this is just a CWS long-run type play. I'll gladly take +190 in a game that should be closer than advertised. No way in hell I am laying -230 juice on a team starting a freshman vs. a senior, on a team that has trouble hitting, against a very good hitting team, and Nebraska is 1-4 lifetime in Omaha, despite these same record crowds every year they are in it.
Best of luck!
Sr. RHP Tommy Boss vs. Fr. RHP Johnny Dorn
General Impression
Nebraska and Florida may be the two hottest teams in the country right now. Both have yet to lose in the postseason, Nebraska doing it with superb pitching, and the Gators doing it with just enough pitching and great hitting. In this matchup, we'll see freshman pitcher vs. senior pitcher, with a sea of red in Nebraska's corner.
Florida's Pitcher
The Gators will start senior RHP Tommy Boss. Boss is not dominant, will not over power you, and will not strike you out. He relies on a 2-seam fastball that gets tremendous Greg Maddux-esque run, a devastating changeup he throws to left handed hitters, and a good curveball that he throws to righties. He has been hittable throughout his career, but he has earned the nickname "Postseason Boss" for his ability to step up his game in the post-season. How much? In the past 2 postseason's as a starter, Boss is 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 4 complete games in 5 starts. This year he has had two starts, his first was a complete game victory over North Carolina, his next was a complete game victory over FSU in supers 8-1.
Nebraska's Pitcher
Nebraska starts freshman Johnny Dorn. The freshman has been phenomenal this year, and has accepted an invite to play for Team USA. 12-1 1.98 ERA. This postseason has been a different story. He hasn't been able to get out of the 7th inning this year. He gave up 6 hits and 4 runs to Creighton in regionals, and had a better showing against Miami getting knocked out in the 6th after getting into a possible game deciding jam. Dorn is another pitcher that will not over power you, and he will be around the plate, he won't strike out batters and he will let his defense work.
The Nebraska Mismatch
Nebraska will be in front of a sea of red of 25,000 Husker fans, in the most hostile environment in Gator history. Although they are 1-4 in school history in Omaha, they looked impressive and should be able to continue to feed off of their fans and make it tough on the opposing teams. However, how much does crowd noise really help in this game? Does it warrant this much of an inflated line? This isn't a true home field for the Huskers. They do not play home games at Rosenblatt stadium and they are just as familiar with their surroundings, bad hops, speed of the infield, etc as Florida is.
The Gator Mismatch
The Gators field a hitting team that is also much better than shown on paper. They have bench players that are good hitters that they can use in lefty-righty situations off the bench. They have a couple of guys who can get on base on the top of the order, and they have big RBI men in the middle, and situational bunters and contact guys in the bottom of the order. The bottom of the order went 5 for 8 against Hochevar with only 1 strikeout and 3 walks. After facing Hochevar and hitting him around, Florida has to be confident in their ability to hit any pitcher, especially a freshman Johnny Dorn. From day 1 I felt Nebraska just wont be able to get away with pitching their way through games. At some point, they're going to have to hit. Their offense struggles to put up runs.
Bottom Line
Who wins this game? If the line was a pick'em, or Nebraska with small juice, I'm going with Nebraska. Nebraska wins this particular game 6 times out of 10 with these particular pitchers on the mound. I don't think that warrants the line that we're seeing. No doubt, Nebraska has to be the favorite to win this game. But do I want to risk 4 units to win 2, or 2 units to win 4?
In a game that I feel will be deciding by hitting, I'll take the better hitting team that is a huge underdog. You have two pitchers on the mound that can pitch well, but are also vulnerable to giving up hits. This game should be a good one, and I'll take the dog.
My Line:
Nebraska -140
My Play:
(2 units) Florida +190
Nebraska wins this game 60% of the time. But if you continue to follow my plays, we will win over the long run on plays like this. This play may lose, but the next underdog will win. Or vise-versa. This isn't a game I recommend loading up on, this is just a CWS long-run type play. I'll gladly take +190 in a game that should be closer than advertised. No way in hell I am laying -230 juice on a team starting a freshman vs. a senior, on a team that has trouble hitting, against a very good hitting team, and Nebraska is 1-4 lifetime in Omaha, despite these same record crowds every year they are in it.
Best of luck!
..I
arty:
