Oregon State Beavers vs. Baylor Bears
Soph. RHP Dallas Buck vs. Sr. LHP Trey Taylor
General Impression
This game features two teams, with no history or tradition of college baseball on their sides. This is the Beavers first trip to Omaha since 1952. This is Baylor's first trip since 1978. Both teams played like it in Game 1, dropping close decisions and losing when it counted to Tulane and Texas respectively. So there's no real superficial "edge" in this game or story behind it and it will come down to execution and talent.
Oregon State's Pitcher
Oregon State starts their ace, sophomore right hander Dallas Buck. Buck is 12-1 with a 2.12 ERA on the year, he has 116 strikeouts in 123 IP and he's given up only 83 hits. Opponents are batting just .189 against him. Buck has been compared to Derek Lowe in scouting reports. He'll run it 89-92 with great sink on his fastball. He is not scared to throw his slider if he is behind in counts, not allowing hitters to sit and drive the fastball. He relies on mis-hits from his sink, though he has shown the ability to strike hitters out. He didn't start game 1 because he was a little over-worked from his super-regional with USC. He started game 1 vs. USC in Oregon and went 8 IP gave up 7 hits, 4 ER, walked 6 and only struck out 2. He then came back in game 3 on 1 day rest to get the save going 1.1 IP, 0 hits, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 Ks. He was a little sore during the week so they gave him the extra 2 days rest, and he's ready to go for tomorrow. Buck is a cornerback and special teams player on the Oregon State football team, so we know he is an athlete on the mound and he should be able to field bunts and have success executing at critical points in the game. He'll face a Baylor lineup batting .269 as a team that had trouble hitting Texas freshman Adrian Alaniz, scoring 1 run in their game against Texas.
Baylor's Starter
Baylor starts senior lefthander Trey Taylor. Taylor has been Baylor's Friday Night guy for the most part of the year, but that seems to be because of seniority. No doubt, he has some talent. But clearly, 1st Rounder Mark McCormick, and Team USA Invitee Cory VanAllen are the two talented pitchers on this staff. Taylor is 7-6 this year with a 3.50 ERA and opponents are batting .249 against him. In Big 12 Play, Taylor is 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA and opponents bat .269 off of him. He is clearly a hittable pitcher, that has had trouble establishing consistency to his season. He doesn't strike out many batters, and that doesn't fare well against an Oregon State club that makes a lot of contact and doesn't strikeout often.
Oregon State's Mismatch
Oregon State has their ace on the mound, squaring off against Baylor's #2/#3 guy. Although Dallas Buck has shown the ability to strike hitters out, he is a pitcher that gets hitters to mis-hit balls, relying on his sink to get hitters out. That should spell doom for a Baylor offense that struggles. One of the main reasons they struggle is they have a tight leash at the plate. They take too many first pitch strikes and fall behind in the count. This is part of why their strikeout rate is so high. If Buck does fall behind in the count, that is when Baylor gears up. However, Buck has the reputation for throwing sliders when behind in the count, and this does not bode well for Baylor.
Baylor's Mismatch
Baylor starts a lefthander that matches up well against some key left handed hitters in Oregon State's lineup. The ever-dangerous Jacoby Ellsbury (batting over .400), possibly the fastest player in college baseball, is a lefthanded hitter. OSU bats a few more lefties, and I'm curious how effective Taylor will be vs. these key hitters in OSU's lineup. Although Baylor has not been to Omaha since 1978, they have a lot of talent on their team. They've shown signs of greatness all year such as sweeping Texas this year is no easy task. Their team has a lot of talent, but they had a hard time putting it together against Texas last game. I thought Oregon State was one of the weaker teams in the field, getting here without much of a challenge. Oregon State has 1 solid dependable guy in their bullpen, Gunderson, and beyond him, it gets very scary in the Beaver bullpen. If Gunderson gets in trouble and has to come out, I wouldn't put it past the Beaver bullpen to give this one away late. Baylor has 2-3 arms they can run out there if Trey Taylor gets into trouble. Oregon State played their first game east of California in Omaha in game 1 and they lost.
Bottom Line
Bottom line, Oregon State starts their ace, vs. Baylor's #2/#3. Oregon State is the better hitting team, they don't strike out, and they play great defense. With Ellsbury covering tons of ground in CF, and an athlete like Buck on the mound, OSU is solid up the middle. But I'm not sold on Oregon State, their soft road schedule, easy road to Omaha, and lack to be tested this season concerns me in an elimination game of this magnitude for both teams. Add in the left handed pitcher for Baylor causing possible matchup problems against OSU's key hitters, and this line is dead on.
My Line
Oregon State -130
My Play
No Play Recommended
Action Junkies Must-Have Play
(1 unit)Oregon State -130
I think Baylor will need to score 5-6 runs to outscore an Oregon State offense that puts the ball in play and puts pressure on the defense with speed, bunting and no strike outs. Typically, Baylor struggles to score and that shouldn't get any easier for them this game going against the Beavers ace pitcher.
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Soph. RHP Dallas Buck vs. Sr. LHP Trey Taylor
General Impression
This game features two teams, with no history or tradition of college baseball on their sides. This is the Beavers first trip to Omaha since 1952. This is Baylor's first trip since 1978. Both teams played like it in Game 1, dropping close decisions and losing when it counted to Tulane and Texas respectively. So there's no real superficial "edge" in this game or story behind it and it will come down to execution and talent.
Oregon State's Pitcher
Oregon State starts their ace, sophomore right hander Dallas Buck. Buck is 12-1 with a 2.12 ERA on the year, he has 116 strikeouts in 123 IP and he's given up only 83 hits. Opponents are batting just .189 against him. Buck has been compared to Derek Lowe in scouting reports. He'll run it 89-92 with great sink on his fastball. He is not scared to throw his slider if he is behind in counts, not allowing hitters to sit and drive the fastball. He relies on mis-hits from his sink, though he has shown the ability to strike hitters out. He didn't start game 1 because he was a little over-worked from his super-regional with USC. He started game 1 vs. USC in Oregon and went 8 IP gave up 7 hits, 4 ER, walked 6 and only struck out 2. He then came back in game 3 on 1 day rest to get the save going 1.1 IP, 0 hits, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 Ks. He was a little sore during the week so they gave him the extra 2 days rest, and he's ready to go for tomorrow. Buck is a cornerback and special teams player on the Oregon State football team, so we know he is an athlete on the mound and he should be able to field bunts and have success executing at critical points in the game. He'll face a Baylor lineup batting .269 as a team that had trouble hitting Texas freshman Adrian Alaniz, scoring 1 run in their game against Texas.
Baylor's Starter
Baylor starts senior lefthander Trey Taylor. Taylor has been Baylor's Friday Night guy for the most part of the year, but that seems to be because of seniority. No doubt, he has some talent. But clearly, 1st Rounder Mark McCormick, and Team USA Invitee Cory VanAllen are the two talented pitchers on this staff. Taylor is 7-6 this year with a 3.50 ERA and opponents are batting .249 against him. In Big 12 Play, Taylor is 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA and opponents bat .269 off of him. He is clearly a hittable pitcher, that has had trouble establishing consistency to his season. He doesn't strike out many batters, and that doesn't fare well against an Oregon State club that makes a lot of contact and doesn't strikeout often.
Oregon State's Mismatch
Oregon State has their ace on the mound, squaring off against Baylor's #2/#3 guy. Although Dallas Buck has shown the ability to strike hitters out, he is a pitcher that gets hitters to mis-hit balls, relying on his sink to get hitters out. That should spell doom for a Baylor offense that struggles. One of the main reasons they struggle is they have a tight leash at the plate. They take too many first pitch strikes and fall behind in the count. This is part of why their strikeout rate is so high. If Buck does fall behind in the count, that is when Baylor gears up. However, Buck has the reputation for throwing sliders when behind in the count, and this does not bode well for Baylor.
Baylor's Mismatch
Baylor starts a lefthander that matches up well against some key left handed hitters in Oregon State's lineup. The ever-dangerous Jacoby Ellsbury (batting over .400), possibly the fastest player in college baseball, is a lefthanded hitter. OSU bats a few more lefties, and I'm curious how effective Taylor will be vs. these key hitters in OSU's lineup. Although Baylor has not been to Omaha since 1978, they have a lot of talent on their team. They've shown signs of greatness all year such as sweeping Texas this year is no easy task. Their team has a lot of talent, but they had a hard time putting it together against Texas last game. I thought Oregon State was one of the weaker teams in the field, getting here without much of a challenge. Oregon State has 1 solid dependable guy in their bullpen, Gunderson, and beyond him, it gets very scary in the Beaver bullpen. If Gunderson gets in trouble and has to come out, I wouldn't put it past the Beaver bullpen to give this one away late. Baylor has 2-3 arms they can run out there if Trey Taylor gets into trouble. Oregon State played their first game east of California in Omaha in game 1 and they lost.
Bottom Line
Bottom line, Oregon State starts their ace, vs. Baylor's #2/#3. Oregon State is the better hitting team, they don't strike out, and they play great defense. With Ellsbury covering tons of ground in CF, and an athlete like Buck on the mound, OSU is solid up the middle. But I'm not sold on Oregon State, their soft road schedule, easy road to Omaha, and lack to be tested this season concerns me in an elimination game of this magnitude for both teams. Add in the left handed pitcher for Baylor causing possible matchup problems against OSU's key hitters, and this line is dead on.
My Line
Oregon State -130
My Play
No Play Recommended
Action Junkies Must-Have Play
(1 unit)Oregon State -130
I think Baylor will need to score 5-6 runs to outscore an Oregon State offense that puts the ball in play and puts pressure on the defense with speed, bunting and no strike outs. Typically, Baylor struggles to score and that shouldn't get any easier for them this game going against the Beavers ace pitcher.
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