Milw/Ohka---why is line so low?

ppeter · Jun 20, 2005

Milw/Ohka is -104 for the 1st 5 inns and -107 for the game against Cubs/Maddux in the overnight line at Pinny.

Is this the biggest trap game on the board? From what I see, I think Milw should be favored by at least -150.

Maddux has road ERA of 4.6 and ERA of 7.1 last 3 games. Ohka has a Home ERA of 1.6 and an incredible ERA of 0.9 last 3 games, and has been working deep into games. Cubs hit 1 run a game worse vs. righties (Ohka is a righty). Milw is at home, 2 game winning streak. Cubs on the road, 4 game losing streak. Milw pen has been playing really well, stabalized by closer Turnbow.

Can anyone make a case for the Cubbies here? That is besides Joe 6-packs perception of a future HOF pitcher going up against an anonymous asian pitcher that doesn't get any press.

antipublic · Jun 20, 2005

Cubs are a square fav. Their lines are always inflated. See what the movement does tomorrow. Seems to be moving in the right direction as of now. GL bro.

TheDuck · Jun 20, 2005

ppeter said:
...Ohka has a Home ERA of 1.6 and an incredible ERA of 0.9 last 3 games, and has been working deep into games....

All those home games came as a national in a stadium that currently has a park factor in the pitchers favor. Miller park, his new home, has a more even park factor.

Also two of those last three starts came against a struggling Braves team and Tampa Bay.

I would think the over is the best play.

edub69 · Jun 20, 2005

Maddux's lines are always inflated due to the public perception that he is still a great pitcher and not a #4 starter. If the Cubs were still riding a winning streak, they would be -125 in this game. One thing to keep in mind is that Miller Park almost plays like a home park for the Cubs. There have been many games where Cub fans outnumber Brewers fans in Miller park.

finite · Jun 20, 2005

Maddox pitchs much better in night games.

ppeter · Jun 20, 2005

Thanks for all the info---I may hedge off a bit here, but so far I am really heavy on Milw.

ppeter · Jun 20, 2005

Cubs are KILLING Milw right out of the gate. How the hell could I have handicapped that given the pitching stats I pointed out above? Does the axiom "if it looks to good to be true, bet the other way" apply to baseball? It frustrates me to no end how the illogical always seems to occur whenever I love a play.

edub69 · Jun 20, 2005

I think you should trust your instincts...if you felt like you needed to come in here and make a post about the game, it's probably because you knew at some level that it wasn't as solid a play as it seemed. I have done the same thing several times recently, and all three times it turned out to be a losing play. Luckily, when I saw that other posters weren't as gung-ho on the play as I was, I made it a smaller play than I otherwise would have. That said, this game's not over yet - Maddux isn't looking very good so far. It will depend on whether Ohka can hold the Cubs down for a few innings.

ppeter · Jun 20, 2005

Excellent post, thanks. Yes you are right, I needed my hand held on this one. I am toast even if Milw comes back because I put more on Milw in the first 5 innings.