Patriot

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This seems like a very wise move,
Patriot said:
SSI good luck with your project. I'm working on one where I am recording the daily winning pct of every team on a daily basis on excel and also the opening line on them each day, the object is to find when a team has peaked for the year and when the avg. line on them is at the highest, and then go against them when they are favs the rest of the year....an example would be the White Sox where their winning pct. was at .700 they have been on a slow decline since.

But I am waiting to allstar break to pick out maybe 3 teams and go against them the rest of the year.Teams that play at about .620 ball or better at allstar break will usually play only about.500 ball or so the rest of the way and the price on them will be inflated.
This is the first year I have been doing this.I've set up charts on excel like the stock market on every team too based on that info.
That runline angle might be something I look at too.
after the allstar break it sure seems like motivations are the inconsistant from earlier in the season. Baseball is a humbling sport. 90% of Players are somehow inevatably pulled close to the norm by the end of the year. Teams that were overachieving seem to also, just off memory. Also teams that are out of the playoffs bring up prospects up that are more motivated then average. When was the last time an 81/1 long shot won the NBA finals? Angels did it just acouple of years ago. Value shouldn't be to hard to come by with the right selections on teams to fade.

It is crazy how much different baseball is the basketball; the Pistons are down 3-2 and are basically dead, just look at the series line( -1100),because no one has ever and probably never will come back from since the 2-3-2 NBA format. But in Bases, just last seasons MLB playoffs the Redsox come back from being down 3 game to 0 to beat the Yankees and go on to win the World Series. It is a "grind" as Im sure you know, to pick winners in bases. But picking winners after the allstar season is different, you will see alot of complaining threads of teams not showing up. The public gets real trusting in teams that may have brought them cash earlier in the season at most likely juicy prices.
Your plan, to me, is the most logical, teams on any given day are unpredictable, but teams down the stretch of the season are much more predictable somehow when you put it in to prospective. It all still comes down to the dicision of what team to fade.

:digit: I am looking forward to seeing your selections after the allstar break.
 

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I'm scoping the teams possible to go against. Whitesox are looking like the golden fade. :dancefool
 

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Angels did it just acouple of years ago.
I had bought shares on the Angels at WSEX to either win the pennant or WS that year I think I bought 26 a share in June and bailed at 55 or somthing.If I'd held I would have mopped up.

Anyway,the White Sox avg. line the first 35 games of the season is -44.The last 34 games is -92.Thats avg. all games fav. or dog...What suprises me is that LV still does not give them the respect right now,playing .676 ball.

The Yankees avg. line throught the first 35 games is like -153...through their last 34 games or so their avg. line is -122 playing .529 ball.....talk about a public team.

This is a work in progress and will be pure speculation on my part this year, but I'll have a years worth of data to dick around with in the winter.But it always occured to me that teams playing above their head will either come down to norm while the media horns ,bells, and whistles go off and the price on them rises....its just a matter of the price lagging the current level of play, and getting ahead of that curve...Intresting thing I found about the W/Sox so far is they get close to going below the .650 level,and they start to win again.I think if they fall a few games below .650 might be the time to play against and stay against.
Thanks for the intrest it keeps me motivated,pain in the ass making those entries everyday.
 

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Patriot said:
I had bought shares on the Angels at WSEX to either win the pennant or WS that year I think I bought 26 a share in June and bailed at 55 or somthing.If I'd held I would have mopped up.

Anyway,the White Sox avg. line the first 35 games of the season is -44.The last 34 games is -92.Thats avg. all games fav. or dog...What suprises me is that LV still does not give them the respect right now,playing .676 ball.

The Yankees avg. line throught the first 35 games is like -153...through their last 34 games or so their avg. line is -122 playing .529 ball.....talk about a public team.

This is a work in progress and will be pure speculation on my part this year, but I'll have a years worth of data to dick around with in the winter.But it always occured to me that teams playing above their head will either come down to norm while the media horns ,bells, and whistles go off and the price on them rises....its just a matter of the price lagging the current level of play, and getting ahead of that curve...Intresting thing I found about the W/Sox so far is they get close to going below the .650 level,and they start to win again.I think if they fall a few games below .650 might be the time to play against and stay against.
Thanks for the intrest it keeps me motivated,pain in the ass making those entries everyday.
Good info Patriot. Update me when possible, I think you definately are on to something.:toast:
 

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Patriot said:
I had bought shares on the Angels at WSEX to either win the pennant or WS that year I think I bought 26 a share in June and bailed at 55 or somthing.If I'd held I would have mopped up.

Anyway,the White Sox avg. line the first 35 games of the season is -44.The last 34 games is -92.Thats avg. all games fav. or dog...What suprises me is that LV still does not give them the respect right now,playing .676 ball.

The Yankees avg. line throught the first 35 games is like -153...through their last 34 games or so their avg. line is -122 playing .529 ball.....talk about a public team.

This is a work in progress and will be pure speculation on my part this year, but I'll have a years worth of data to dick around with in the winter.But it always occured to me that teams playing above their head will either come down to norm while the media horns ,bells, and whistles go off and the price on them rises....its just a matter of the price lagging the current level of play, and getting ahead of that curve...Intresting thing I found about the W/Sox so far is they get close to going below the .650 level,and they start to win again.I think if they fall a few games below .650 might be the time to play against and stay against.
Thanks for the intrest it keeps me motivated,pain in the ass making those entries everyday.
:homer:
 

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Hey sure guy, I'm still keeping track and will start sorting things out in a few days.

I'll try to put some info together by all star break.

One thing is for sure linesmakers have their favorites.
I even think the Indians get more respect from the linesmakers than the W/Sox,thats at firsdt glance..I'll have to sort it out more.
 

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Hey I was looking for you the other day I put out an APB on this and the baseball forum.

Now I have the entire opening lines and and daily winning pct for the first half of the year on all teams.

Tell me what you need to know...I also have line graphs on most teams.

Now I said I'd pick 3 teams to go against.

I'll definatley go AGAINST the W.Sox when favored.
After 42 games they had a .714 winning pct. with an average line of -60. After 84 games they have a .679 avg. with an avg. line of -94.

Now I have a team I will bet ON when they are dogs the rest of the season and that would be the Cubs, after 44games the win pct. was .477 with an avg. opening line of -48. After 86 games they have a .488 win pct. with an avg. line of +17..Line has been trending against them when they actually been trending up.

Another team I'm ON the rest of the way when dogs is the Tigers..
42 games .476 line pick em.
84 games .488 avg. line +65

I also like Toronto and the Rangers and maybe go against the Cards but the cards have been very consistent all year and a .632 winning pct. is not that all unusual their line has gone from -101 at the quarter pole to -150 at the break...I also like going against Padres but they play in a very wek division and could easily go on a run against those mucks.
If you got any Q's ax me.
 

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Patriot said:
Hey I was looking for you the other day I put out an APB on this and the baseball forum.

Now I have the entire opening lines and and daily winning pct for the first half of the year on all teams.

Tell me what you need to know...I also have line graphs on most teams.

Now I said I'd pick 3 teams to go against.

I'll definatley go AGAINST the W.Sox when favored.
After 42 games they had a .714 winning pct. with an average line of -60. After 84 games they have a .679 avg. with an avg. line of -94.

Now I have a team I will bet ON when they are dogs the rest of the season and that would be the Cubs, after 44games the win pct. was .477 with an avg. opening line of -48. After 86 games they have a .488 win pct. with an avg. line of +17..Line has been trending against them when they actually been trending up.

Another team I'm ON the rest of the way when dogs is the Tigers..
42 games .476 line pick em.
84 games .488 avg. line +65

I also like Toronto and the Rangers and maybe go against the Cards but the cards have been very consistent all year and a .632 winning pct. is not that all unusual their line has gone from -101 at the quarter pole to -150 at the break...I also like going against Padres but they play in a very wek division and could easily go on a run against those mucks.
If you got any Q's ax me.
:toast: I was mostly interested in what teams you came up with for the second half.
Whitesox to go against as a dog.
Tigers at pickem or higher
Cubs as dogs.

Correct me if I wrong but those are them right?


How are you going about wagering % wise per game, more conservative? Or less.?
 

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Sure Guy I'm going to go flat half unit....and see how it goes...This is the first time of tried this also I think Washington may be a good go against.there numbers were a little odd for first place team

Quarter pole .545 +48
at the break .591 +16

Compare this to Fla.

Quarter .591 -98
break .512 -85

But I decided on W/Sox (against) Cubs.Tigers (On 'em )...but if you were to put a gun to my head and made me pick a 4th team I'd go with toronto.

If you want sure guy I'll send you what I have at the end of the season...right now I just have a bunch of notes that only I understand. I'll have to clean it up some.
 

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Patriot said:
Sure Guy I'm going to go flat half unit....and see how it goes...This is the first time of tried this also I think Washington may be a good go against.there numbers were a little odd for first place team

Quarter pole .545 +48
at the break .591 +16

Compare this to Fla.

Quarter .591 -98
break .512 -85

But I decided on W/Sox (against) Cubs.Tigers (On 'em )...but if you were to put a gun to my head and made me pick a 4th team I'd go with toronto.

If you want sure guy I'll send you what I have at the end of the season...right now I just have a bunch of notes that only I understand. I'll have to clean it up some.
:toast: Sounds good Patriot. Thanks again. I'll try to mention some plays in this thread.
 

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Patroit,

Best of luck, I hope you get well rewarded for your hard work, in fact, I think I will add your thoughts to my portfolio.:103631605
 

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