This seems like a very wise move,
It is crazy how much different baseball is the basketball; the Pistons are down 3-2 and are basically dead, just look at the series line( -1100),because no one has ever and probably never will come back from since the 2-3-2 NBA format. But in Bases, just last seasons MLB playoffs the Redsox come back from being down 3 game to 0 to beat the Yankees and go on to win the World Series. It is a "grind" as Im sure you know, to pick winners in bases. But picking winners after the allstar season is different, you will see alot of complaining threads of teams not showing up. The public gets real trusting in teams that may have brought them cash earlier in the season at most likely juicy prices.
Your plan, to me, is the most logical, teams on any given day are unpredictable, but teams down the stretch of the season are much more predictable somehow when you put it in to prospective. It all still comes down to the dicision of what team to fade.
:digit: I am looking forward to seeing your selections after the allstar break.
after the allstar break it sure seems like motivations are the inconsistant from earlier in the season. Baseball is a humbling sport. 90% of Players are somehow inevatably pulled close to the norm by the end of the year. Teams that were overachieving seem to also, just off memory. Also teams that are out of the playoffs bring up prospects up that are more motivated then average. When was the last time an 81/1 long shot won the NBA finals? Angels did it just acouple of years ago. Value shouldn't be to hard to come by with the right selections on teams to fade.Patriot said:SSI good luck with your project. I'm working on one where I am recording the daily winning pct of every team on a daily basis on excel and also the opening line on them each day, the object is to find when a team has peaked for the year and when the avg. line on them is at the highest, and then go against them when they are favs the rest of the year....an example would be the White Sox where their winning pct. was at .700 they have been on a slow decline since.
But I am waiting to allstar break to pick out maybe 3 teams and go against them the rest of the year.Teams that play at about .620 ball or better at allstar break will usually play only about.500 ball or so the rest of the way and the price on them will be inflated.
This is the first year I have been doing this.I've set up charts on excel like the stock market on every team too based on that info.
That runline angle might be something I look at too.
It is crazy how much different baseball is the basketball; the Pistons are down 3-2 and are basically dead, just look at the series line( -1100),because no one has ever and probably never will come back from since the 2-3-2 NBA format. But in Bases, just last seasons MLB playoffs the Redsox come back from being down 3 game to 0 to beat the Yankees and go on to win the World Series. It is a "grind" as Im sure you know, to pick winners in bases. But picking winners after the allstar season is different, you will see alot of complaining threads of teams not showing up. The public gets real trusting in teams that may have brought them cash earlier in the season at most likely juicy prices.
Your plan, to me, is the most logical, teams on any given day are unpredictable, but teams down the stretch of the season are much more predictable somehow when you put it in to prospective. It all still comes down to the dicision of what team to fade.
:digit: I am looking forward to seeing your selections after the allstar break.