Law of Averages Play

ChooseORLose · Jun 21, 2005

I've been experimenting with some nonsense and thought ya'll might be interested. I know I've been away for some time, sorry bout that. I'm a huge follower of the law of average, which basically states that in the long run, all things will even out. Well, I've decided to just use this law and apply to sports. Teams and players in all sports tend to hit hot and cold streaks. Pitchers will win 10 straight and then lose 10. Yankees will win 10 straight and lose 10. The Spurs will win 12 straight and the lose 6 of 10. So I'm looking for streaks of all types and betting against them, with a three time progression. I know the dangers of Martingaling but if done right you could prosper. I don't recommend anybody follow me, because there is really no logic or number or stats or particulars that I'm using. Some of these may be base on the series matchup, some may just be based on a particular team, some may be based on the pitcher. You never know.

Tonight's Play:

1 unit New York Mets +152
The Mets have lost 6 of 7 on the road while the Phillies won 11 of 12 in their last home stand and 16 of 20 since last losing 2 straight.

1 unit Cincinnati Reds +136
Cincy has lost 7 of 8, while St. Lou was won 4 str on road and are 24-12 away.

1 unit Colorado +125
Rockies lose 29 of 34 on the road including 6 of 7, while Astros are on 5 game home win streak.

1 unit Colorado OVER 9 -103
5 str unders

1 unit LA Dodgers OVER 7.5 -113
4 str unders and 7 of 8

1 unit Philadelphia OVER 8.5 -119
7 straight unders

1 unit Torontoa BlueJays +103
Rodrigo Lopez has won 4 straight, due a loss.

1 unit Kansas City Royals +194
Garland has won 3 straight, Chi Sox have won 5 straight.

Gary_Philly · Jun 21, 2005

Best Wishes!! But I prefer to ride the streaks and only lose once then to lose and keep chasing.

ChooseORLose · Jun 21, 2005

thanks, gary, hope this comes out profitable. its going to take money and patience, good thing is that fading hot streaks usually means betting dogs.

IMONTILT · Jun 21, 2005

SOUNDS LIKE A SUICIDE THREAD, but with some great prices, I like the premice of this concept, i also like the opposite of this concept. Let's see what happems!!

NoLimits · Jun 21, 2005

:monsters-:shoot3:

ChooseORLose · Jun 21, 2005

IM ON TILT said:
SOUNDS LIKE A SUICIDE THREAD, but with some great prices, I like the premice of this concept, i also like the opposite of this concept. Let's see what happems!!

:hanging: you guys are probably right. that's why i don't recommend anybody play it. :lolBIG:

ChooseORLose · Jun 22, 2005

Overall: 4-4 +0.75 units
LOA Rec: 4-0 +4.88 units

Not a bad start yesterday. Have some carry overs from last night and some new ones.

Today's Plays:

2 units Colorado Rockies +213
2 units Kansas City Royals +228
2 units LA Dodgers OVER 8.5 +105

1 unit Florida Marlins -105 (Moehler must pitch)
Florida 5 str losses in Moehler last 5 appearances

1 unit Minnesota Twins -123
Detroit has won 3 str; have won more than 3 straight once all season (5 str)

ChooseORLose · Jun 23, 2005

Only won win last night.

Overall: 5-9 -3.43 units
LOAP: 5-0 +6.98 unitsToday's Plays:

2 units Minnesota Twins -117
1 unit San Francisco Giants +130
Rueter has lost l straight
1 unit Pittsburgh Pirates +197
Morris fade, has won 7 straight, and is undefeated

gamblingman+ · Jun 23, 2005

I like the formula, I think also if you pick your spots with this method it can really pay off .

BlackampGold · Jun 23, 2005

Choose -

look to back pitchers who have under-achieved (poor start) for 3 cons. starts and fade pitchers who have over-achieved (excellent start) for 3 cons. starts. You will get great value with these lines. This is a major part of my capping and it works.

ChooseORLose · Jun 23, 2005

thanks for the support guys. i started getting the feeling that i was nuts or something. i still probably am though

b & g--- i'll definetly look into your theory. on a three game progression that should work. I've decided to wait for a streak of at least 5 consecutive whatevers. this should help limit my plays. but there will be instances like the mets/phillies play which would qualify.

ChooseORLose · Jun 24, 2005

updating stats...

Overall: 7-9 -0.75 units
LOAP: 7-0 +10.66 units

be back with some plays for tomorrow.

i noticed my overall record was off. i have 9 losses not 10.

ChooseORLose · Jun 24, 2005

Today's Plays:

3 units Texas Rangers +142
3 units Chicago Cubs +147
1 unit Colorad Rockies -114
1 unit Cincinatti Reds +164
1 unit Toronto Blue Jays +130
1 unit Chicago Cubs +147

no time for explanations but if you have questons i will try to answer tomorrow. I'll be out most the day so won't be able to get to questions til prob evening.

Gary_Philly · Jun 24, 2005

Keep it up. This should be interesting! Some juicy Dogs there!

BOL

ChooseORLose · Jun 24, 2005

thanks g-phil. seems like this is producing a lot of plus plays. that's a fine and dandy as long as they cash.

ChooseORLose · Jun 25, 2005

Well, the losses caught up with me today. White Sox and Stros are hot. two wins today though.

Overall: 9-13 -6.11 units
LOAP: 9-2 +7.3 units

Friday's 1 unit play on Chicago was a fade on Freddy Garcia. The 3 unit play was against the Sox win streak.

Saturday's Plays:

2 units Toronto BlueJays +145
Washington fade, 11 gm home win streak

1 unit Texas Rangers -122
fading 5 game losing streak

1 unit Philadelphia Phillies +123
fading Boston win streak, 5 straight

1 unit Oakland A's -170
A's 5 straight losses in L5 Haren's starts

1 unit Philadelphia Phillies +123
fade on Clement's 7 str wins

1 unit Seattle Mariners +183
Peavy fade, 7 straight wins

ChooseORLose · Jun 26, 2005

updating....

Overall: 11-17 -9.11 units
LOAP: 11-2 +9.3 units

Sunday's Plays:

3 units Toronto BlueJays

2 units Philadelphia Phillies

2 units Atlanta Braves
2nd progression of Rod Lopez fade

2 units Chicago Cubs
2nd progression of Garland fade

1 unit Colorado Rockies
Kennedy 5 straight losses

1 unit LA Dodgers
Byrd home fade

1 unit Chicago Cubs
1st progression: Garland fade 5 straigh home wins

1 unit Pittsburgh Pirates
marquis (st.lou) 5 straight home wins

1 unit Philadelphia Phillies
David Wells fade (won 5 straight)

1 unit Milwaukee Brewers
Santos 5 str losses

ChooseORLose · Jun 26, 2005

Ahh Haha, Ah, I forgot to post my lines, Ahh Haha.
Boner, Ahh Haha:beavis1:

3 units Toronto BlueJays +120

2 units Philadelphia Phillies -110

2 units Atlanta Braves -132
2nd progression of Rod Lopez fade

2 units Chicago Cubs +114
2nd progression of Garland fade

1 unit Colorado Rockies -139
Kennedy 5 straight losses

1 unit LA Dodgers +156
Byrd home fade

1 unit Chicago Cubs +114
1st progression: Garland fade 5 straigh home wins

1 unit Pittsburgh Pirates +145
marquis (st.lou) 5 straight home wins

1 unit Philadelphia Phillies -110
David Wells fade (won 5 straight)

1 unit Milwaukee Brewers -125
Santos 5 str losses

ChooseORLose · Jun 26, 2005

Overall: 17-21 -3.19 units
LOAP: 17-2 +20.77 unit

Kind of rushed through this. numbers may be wrong but, ill check back in a week.

johnskelington · Jun 26, 2005

I love systems man, I think a lot of money has been lost betting against streaks and trends tho.

Law of Averages Play

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