baseball numbers: what are they saying

golfingarkansas · Jun 23, 2005

maybe this is newbie section material...

don best or live lines
opening sportbook a b c d e
1. team a
team b -150 165 171 162 157 178

do you bet team b?
or if you never bet into the worse number, is it a leave alone?

total lines
2. line is 7.5 minus 125 and you like the over, is the number telling you the
under the right side?

golfingarkansas · Jun 24, 2005

i guess no one knows what i was asking on these numbers?

LET ME USE MY NBA EXAMPLE OR FOOTBALL YOU NEVER BET INTO THE

WORSE NUMBER...YOU WOULD NEVER HAD TAKEN DETROIT AT PLUS 4.5

WHEN THE ORIGINAL NUMBER WAS MUCH BETTER...LIKE LAST NIGHT ALL THE

MONEY WENT TO DETROIT (LOSER) WHAT DOES THE MONEY MOVEMENT

TELL YOU IN BASES?

Fishhead · Jun 24, 2005

ALOT depends on the time of day the numbers move!

For example, if say 3-4 baseball games move 3-5 cents at PINNY at say 4-5am EST time, you can rest assured that this is probably SMART money.

The TIME a line moves is one of the most overlooked aspect in analyzing line moves.

-FH-

ps- By the way, and this may not be prudent all the time, but I personally NEVER try to take the worst of a number. For instance in last nights game, I would NEVER take +4.5 when I know I could have had +5 earlier. Again, I understand this will cost me some winners at times, but more than anything it institutes strong discipline into my wagering which I view as a good thing in the longrun. The late great Sonny Reizner installed this into me many years ago and it has I think served me well over the years.

golfingarkansas · Jun 24, 2005

Did You Say 4 Or 5 Am Est

FairWarning · Jun 24, 2005

I will try to answer the 7.5 total. Fish is right about early money - smart money. I also look at late movement for unders since the lineups are announced. I rarely bet over on a 7.5 or a 9.5. To me it is like laying3.5 on the road in football. 4-3 and 5-4 are very common scores and hate to bet over on those for that reason.

One other thing I look at on totals. Get the opening lines and if the total is an odd number, I feel it favors the home team since they would get one less at bat if they are winning. Even-numbered totals would lean to taking the road team since the home team would have to bat in the 9th. I would like some input on this too.