Braves' lineup pretty green By Gary Gillette
ESPN Insider
Maybe the Braves' mojo has faded. Maybe Atlanta's magic is going, going … gone. After a record 13 straight divisional titles – provided you don't count that second-place standing in the aborted 1994 season – the perennial first-place Bravos might finally be at the end of their run.
After a 5-0 win over the Marlins on Wednesday, the Braves are in third place with a 37-33 record, only four games above .500 and 3½ games behind surprising NL East leader Washington. The Braves are three games below their projected record (based on their 325 runs scored and 282 runs allowed), so it doesn't appear to be a fluke.
With the Braves having been pronounced "dead" more times than a Norwegian blue that's pining for the fjords, perhaps it's true that their reign is over in the NL East.
Last night, Atlanta started this lineup against Florida:
Rafael Furcal SS
Pete Orr 2B
Kelly Johnson LF
Andruw Jones CF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Wilson Betemit 3B
Ryan Langerhans RF
Brian McCann C
John Smoltz P
Compare that with its Opening Day lineup against the Marlins on April 5:
Furcal SS
Marcus Giles 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Andruw Jones CF
LaRoche 1B
Johnny Estrada C
Raul Mondesi RF
Brian Jordan LF
Smoltz P
Less than three months into the season, only three position starters were the same. Two changes stemmed from lack of performance from veteran outfielders counted on to bolster the team's offense. One was because of injury. Two regulars were simply resting.
Mondesi was released at the end of May after being benched for poor performance. His stats: 41 G, 4 HR, 17 RBI, .211 BA, .271 OBP, .359 SLG.
Jordan is currently splitting time in right field with Langerhans because the oft-injured veteran is hitting worse than Mondesi was: .233 BA with 2 HR and 21 RBI, a woeful .279 OBP and .296 SLG in 55 games.
No. 3 hitter Chipper Jones (.922 OPS) is disabled and isn't expected back until late July with a foot injury. If immobilization and rest don't do the trick, Jones will require surgery and would then be done for the season.
Estrada has taken his lumps this year, most notably from Darin Erstad. The blue-collar catcher's .284 BA and .750 OPS are close to his career averages (.279 and .742). Without a doubt, Estrada is well-loved, but he's not likely to lead the team to any more titles. Hence, the tryout for McCann.
Furcal is mired in a miserable slump, hitting only .220 with a .616 OPS. The Braves would love to move their former star shortstop before the trading deadline to get out from under his $5.6 million salary, but it's going to be a challenge unless he starts hitting. In any case, it's unlikely Atlanta will re-sign Furcal, who can file for free agency after the season.
All-world center fielder Andruw Jones (2005 OPS .897; career OPS .839) is having a good year because of his 20 home runs and .559 slugging percentage. However, he can't carry the offense by himself.
Giles (2005 .794 OPS; career OPS .827) is hitting near or a bit below his career averages, but hasn't returned to his breakout 2003 form
Atlanta's pitching, of course, has been a train wreck this season, with injuries to three of the team's top four starters and the flameout of Dan Kolb in the bullpen.
Past as prologue?
In 2004, after the games of June 21, the Braves were definitely sagging. With Atlanta in fourth place in the division with a 32-36 record, 4½ games behind Florida, it certainly didn't look as though Cox, Mazzone & Co. were going to extend their streak. Atlanta had even been outscored by six runs at that point. But the Braves decided collectively to call off their own funeral, playing .681 ball the rest of the way while gaining 17½ games on the surprised Marlins, who played only .495 ball as they watched Atlanta speed past them.
But that come-from-behind surge was unusual, not the norm. In contrast, the Braves were in first place in 2003, eight games up on Montreal. In 2002, they were in first, 4½ games ahead of the Expos. In 2001, the Braves were tied for second, 4½ games behind the Phillies, with a run differential of minus-1. In 2000, the Braves were 4½ games up on the Mets, with a run differential of plus-58.
If the Braves are to turn things around, they'll need a return to good health from key veterans such as Chipper Jones, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, and John Thomson – all of whom are on the DL – as well as major improvement from several of their key rookies. Plus a lot of luck.
Although anything is possible, that doesn't seem likely: Most of Atlanta's 2005 newbies either are not ready for prime time or don't have very high ceilings. Here's a breakdown of 10 rookies who have played for the Braves this year; all but right-handed reliever Roman Colon are currently on Atlanta's roster.
Rookie position players (in order of playing time)
Ryan Langerhans (140 AB, .739 OPS): The 25-year-old left-handed hitter projects as a valuable extra outfielder with some power. He is adequate defensively and could play center in a pinch. However, he will quickly become overexposed if he has to play every day because of his modest tools. A classic dead low-ball hitter, Langerhans is too pull-happy at this point and can be gotten out by pitching him away and throwing off-speed stuff. So far, he hasn't adjusted.
Wilson Betemit (91 AB, 14 BB, 1.041 OPS): Although he's still more than a month away from turning 25, the switch-hitting infielder with good tools suffers from years of being overhyped. Betemit looks most comfortable at short, but with a strong arm and good hands and only average range, he is probably best suited to playing third in the majors. Betemit should be able to hit for average with some power. The problem is that he is blocked by Furcal at short and Chipper Jones at third.
Pete Orr (79 AB, 4 BB, .825 OPS): Already 26, the lefty swinger projects to be a solid utility player – probably the Charles Thomas of the '05 Braves. Orr can handle second and third as well as serve as an emergency shortstop and even play the outfield if needed. He plays hard and is a good baserunner.
Kelly Johnson (57 AB, 13 BB, .761 OPS): Braves announcers recently called the 23-year-old outfielder a "Moneyball" kind of player because of his patience at the plate, and he has some speed as well as some power in his bat. A minor league shortstop who was converted to the outfield in 2004, Johnson can hit well enough to help but isn't capable of carrying Atlanta like the kind of bopper who ideally occupies a corner outfield position.
Andy Marte (32 AB, 5 BB, .532 OPS): Atlanta's best all-around prospect, Marte is only 21 years old and not yet ready for the big leagues. The right-handed hitter has tremendous potential with the bat; right now, the Braves are trying to get him to cut down on his strikeouts and stop looking to pull everything. Marte will get his home runs and, if he listens to his coaches, could become a complete hitter. He isn't going to be a great defender but could, in time, be average in the field. Marte started the year in Richmond and was doing well in Triple-A (.276 BA, .363 OBP, .497 SLG) when called up, but he needs more experience and is probably a year or more away from being mature enough to shine in the majors.
Brian McCann (19 AB, 1 BB, .721 OPS): McCann is a relatively unheralded catching prospect because not everyone thinks his future lies behind the plate. However, the 21-year-old has the potential to develop into an average defensive receiver with a powerful bat. Though he hits from the port side, McCann handles southpaws well enough that he shouldn't need to be platooned. Given that Estrada will be 29 next week and already has peaked as a hitter, McCann has an opportunity to take over at catcher very soon.
Rookie pitchers (in order of playing time)
Kyle Davies (35 2/3 IP, 7.57 K/9, 4.29 ERA): Very competitive and very young (21), Davies projects as a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He features a consistent low-90s fastball that can reach the mid-90s, a breaking ball with a sharp bite and a good changeup. The right-hander does not have great stuff and gets hit hard when his command deserts him, but he has made a major contribution by keeping the Braves afloat after stepping into their injury-ravaged rotation.
Roman Colon (18 IP, 8.50 ERA): Though he is relatively unknown, the big (6 foot 6, 225 pounds) right-hander's raw stuff might be as good as that of anyone in baseball. Colon can get his fastball up to 98 mph, and the 25-year-old features a hard slider and a good splitter, as well. With only one year in the high minors under his belt before '05, Colon has been rushed a bit too soon into the Atlanta bullpen and has been making too many rookie mistakes. He's close, and he has a big upside, but Colon might not be ready for a key role until next year.
Blaine Boyer (4 1/3 IP, 10.38 K/9, 2.08 ERA): Turning 24 next month without having ever played above Class A before this season, Boyer right now is just a thrower. The right-hander has a good arm but doesn't know how to pitch yet. He started '05 in Double-A and is a good candidate for a middle relief role. Boyer has a mid-90s fastball and a good breaking ball but doesn't have nearly enough command and control to strike out everyone, which he tries to do.
Jorge Vasquez (4 IP, 15.75 K/9, 4.50 ERA): Vasquez has the capacity to serve at the back of the bullpen in the majors, but he's not going to get any better after he turns 27 next month. Though he has six years of minor-league experience, the right-hander has never pitched in Triple-A. His fastball is a bit above average in velocity; his plus pitch is the slider. When he has command of that pitch, Vasquez is very tough on right-handed hitters.
Gary Gillette is the editor of the 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which was published in March by Sterling. Click here to order a copy. Gary can be reached via e-mail at GGillette@247Baseball
ESPN Insider
Maybe the Braves' mojo has faded. Maybe Atlanta's magic is going, going … gone. After a record 13 straight divisional titles – provided you don't count that second-place standing in the aborted 1994 season – the perennial first-place Bravos might finally be at the end of their run.
After a 5-0 win over the Marlins on Wednesday, the Braves are in third place with a 37-33 record, only four games above .500 and 3½ games behind surprising NL East leader Washington. The Braves are three games below their projected record (based on their 325 runs scored and 282 runs allowed), so it doesn't appear to be a fluke.
With the Braves having been pronounced "dead" more times than a Norwegian blue that's pining for the fjords, perhaps it's true that their reign is over in the NL East.
Last night, Atlanta started this lineup against Florida:
Rafael Furcal SS
Pete Orr 2B
Kelly Johnson LF
Andruw Jones CF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Wilson Betemit 3B
Ryan Langerhans RF
Brian McCann C
John Smoltz P
Compare that with its Opening Day lineup against the Marlins on April 5:
Furcal SS
Marcus Giles 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Andruw Jones CF
LaRoche 1B
Johnny Estrada C
Raul Mondesi RF
Brian Jordan LF
Smoltz P
Less than three months into the season, only three position starters were the same. Two changes stemmed from lack of performance from veteran outfielders counted on to bolster the team's offense. One was because of injury. Two regulars were simply resting.
Mondesi was released at the end of May after being benched for poor performance. His stats: 41 G, 4 HR, 17 RBI, .211 BA, .271 OBP, .359 SLG.
Jordan is currently splitting time in right field with Langerhans because the oft-injured veteran is hitting worse than Mondesi was: .233 BA with 2 HR and 21 RBI, a woeful .279 OBP and .296 SLG in 55 games.
No. 3 hitter Chipper Jones (.922 OPS) is disabled and isn't expected back until late July with a foot injury. If immobilization and rest don't do the trick, Jones will require surgery and would then be done for the season.
Estrada has taken his lumps this year, most notably from Darin Erstad. The blue-collar catcher's .284 BA and .750 OPS are close to his career averages (.279 and .742). Without a doubt, Estrada is well-loved, but he's not likely to lead the team to any more titles. Hence, the tryout for McCann.
Furcal is mired in a miserable slump, hitting only .220 with a .616 OPS. The Braves would love to move their former star shortstop before the trading deadline to get out from under his $5.6 million salary, but it's going to be a challenge unless he starts hitting. In any case, it's unlikely Atlanta will re-sign Furcal, who can file for free agency after the season.
All-world center fielder Andruw Jones (2005 OPS .897; career OPS .839) is having a good year because of his 20 home runs and .559 slugging percentage. However, he can't carry the offense by himself.
Giles (2005 .794 OPS; career OPS .827) is hitting near or a bit below his career averages, but hasn't returned to his breakout 2003 form
Atlanta's pitching, of course, has been a train wreck this season, with injuries to three of the team's top four starters and the flameout of Dan Kolb in the bullpen.
Past as prologue?
In 2004, after the games of June 21, the Braves were definitely sagging. With Atlanta in fourth place in the division with a 32-36 record, 4½ games behind Florida, it certainly didn't look as though Cox, Mazzone & Co. were going to extend their streak. Atlanta had even been outscored by six runs at that point. But the Braves decided collectively to call off their own funeral, playing .681 ball the rest of the way while gaining 17½ games on the surprised Marlins, who played only .495 ball as they watched Atlanta speed past them.
But that come-from-behind surge was unusual, not the norm. In contrast, the Braves were in first place in 2003, eight games up on Montreal. In 2002, they were in first, 4½ games ahead of the Expos. In 2001, the Braves were tied for second, 4½ games behind the Phillies, with a run differential of minus-1. In 2000, the Braves were 4½ games up on the Mets, with a run differential of plus-58.
If the Braves are to turn things around, they'll need a return to good health from key veterans such as Chipper Jones, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, and John Thomson – all of whom are on the DL – as well as major improvement from several of their key rookies. Plus a lot of luck.
Although anything is possible, that doesn't seem likely: Most of Atlanta's 2005 newbies either are not ready for prime time or don't have very high ceilings. Here's a breakdown of 10 rookies who have played for the Braves this year; all but right-handed reliever Roman Colon are currently on Atlanta's roster.
Rookie position players (in order of playing time)
Ryan Langerhans (140 AB, .739 OPS): The 25-year-old left-handed hitter projects as a valuable extra outfielder with some power. He is adequate defensively and could play center in a pinch. However, he will quickly become overexposed if he has to play every day because of his modest tools. A classic dead low-ball hitter, Langerhans is too pull-happy at this point and can be gotten out by pitching him away and throwing off-speed stuff. So far, he hasn't adjusted.
Wilson Betemit (91 AB, 14 BB, 1.041 OPS): Although he's still more than a month away from turning 25, the switch-hitting infielder with good tools suffers from years of being overhyped. Betemit looks most comfortable at short, but with a strong arm and good hands and only average range, he is probably best suited to playing third in the majors. Betemit should be able to hit for average with some power. The problem is that he is blocked by Furcal at short and Chipper Jones at third.
Pete Orr (79 AB, 4 BB, .825 OPS): Already 26, the lefty swinger projects to be a solid utility player – probably the Charles Thomas of the '05 Braves. Orr can handle second and third as well as serve as an emergency shortstop and even play the outfield if needed. He plays hard and is a good baserunner.
Kelly Johnson (57 AB, 13 BB, .761 OPS): Braves announcers recently called the 23-year-old outfielder a "Moneyball" kind of player because of his patience at the plate, and he has some speed as well as some power in his bat. A minor league shortstop who was converted to the outfield in 2004, Johnson can hit well enough to help but isn't capable of carrying Atlanta like the kind of bopper who ideally occupies a corner outfield position.
Andy Marte (32 AB, 5 BB, .532 OPS): Atlanta's best all-around prospect, Marte is only 21 years old and not yet ready for the big leagues. The right-handed hitter has tremendous potential with the bat; right now, the Braves are trying to get him to cut down on his strikeouts and stop looking to pull everything. Marte will get his home runs and, if he listens to his coaches, could become a complete hitter. He isn't going to be a great defender but could, in time, be average in the field. Marte started the year in Richmond and was doing well in Triple-A (.276 BA, .363 OBP, .497 SLG) when called up, but he needs more experience and is probably a year or more away from being mature enough to shine in the majors.
Brian McCann (19 AB, 1 BB, .721 OPS): McCann is a relatively unheralded catching prospect because not everyone thinks his future lies behind the plate. However, the 21-year-old has the potential to develop into an average defensive receiver with a powerful bat. Though he hits from the port side, McCann handles southpaws well enough that he shouldn't need to be platooned. Given that Estrada will be 29 next week and already has peaked as a hitter, McCann has an opportunity to take over at catcher very soon.
Rookie pitchers (in order of playing time)
Kyle Davies (35 2/3 IP, 7.57 K/9, 4.29 ERA): Very competitive and very young (21), Davies projects as a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He features a consistent low-90s fastball that can reach the mid-90s, a breaking ball with a sharp bite and a good changeup. The right-hander does not have great stuff and gets hit hard when his command deserts him, but he has made a major contribution by keeping the Braves afloat after stepping into their injury-ravaged rotation.
Roman Colon (18 IP, 8.50 ERA): Though he is relatively unknown, the big (6 foot 6, 225 pounds) right-hander's raw stuff might be as good as that of anyone in baseball. Colon can get his fastball up to 98 mph, and the 25-year-old features a hard slider and a good splitter, as well. With only one year in the high minors under his belt before '05, Colon has been rushed a bit too soon into the Atlanta bullpen and has been making too many rookie mistakes. He's close, and he has a big upside, but Colon might not be ready for a key role until next year.
Blaine Boyer (4 1/3 IP, 10.38 K/9, 2.08 ERA): Turning 24 next month without having ever played above Class A before this season, Boyer right now is just a thrower. The right-hander has a good arm but doesn't know how to pitch yet. He started '05 in Double-A and is a good candidate for a middle relief role. Boyer has a mid-90s fastball and a good breaking ball but doesn't have nearly enough command and control to strike out everyone, which he tries to do.
Jorge Vasquez (4 IP, 15.75 K/9, 4.50 ERA): Vasquez has the capacity to serve at the back of the bullpen in the majors, but he's not going to get any better after he turns 27 next month. Though he has six years of minor-league experience, the right-hander has never pitched in Triple-A. His fastball is a bit above average in velocity; his plus pitch is the slider. When he has command of that pitch, Vasquez is very tough on right-handed hitters.
Gary Gillette is the editor of the 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, which was published in March by Sterling. Click here to order a copy. Gary can be reached via e-mail at GGillette@247Baseball
