<TABLE cellSpacing=10 cellPadding=10 width=500 bgColor=#ffffcc border=1><TBODY><TR><TD><CENTER>Article Source: Gambling Online Magazine
</CENTER><CENTER>Streaking on the Baseball Diamond
</CENTER>We look at streaks for the same reason investors look at stock performance. When a team has won several games in a row, bettors anticipate that they will keep winning, in just the same way that investors expect a stock to keep rising when it has experienced steady growth for several periods. And when a team is losing, bettors expect them to lose. In sports gambling, as in any form of investing, we are trying to ascertain whether the public has correctly evaluated the team. By way of example, a colleague once suggested to us "Play on any team that's won its last three games, and play against any team that has lost it's last three games. You'll make money every season." Intuitively, our friends advice made sense. A team that has lost three games in a row is sending a signal that it is an inferior team, correct? There is also likely some motivational problems after three straight losses. Similarly, a team that has gotten "hot" and won three games in a row is signaling it's superiority. And it likely has gotten into a confident rhythm which will make it more likely to win game four than the average team.
We were certainly intrigued by this advice. But we were naturally skeptical, so we tested his theory ourselves. We crunched through the last five years of data to see what would happen if you wagered on a three-game winning streak, and against a three-game losing streak.
Bet against team on 0-3 slide
598-590/-68.35 units
Bet on team on 3-0 run
632-548/+17.25 units
I don't know where my friend was getting his advice from, but it turned out to be only half right. In fact, if you inverted that advice to say bet on a team that's on a team that's on an 0-3 slide, your record would be,
Bet on team on 0-3 slide
590-598/+20.0 units
Now, neither one of these "systems" was particularly interesting to us. We're talking about wagering on over 2,000 games for a gain of about 8 units per season. An interesting hobby, perhaps, but not enough to satisfy a die-hard sports gambling enthusiast. What really intrigued us about this is that finding out that teams which had lost 3 games in a row still had a 50% chance of winning going into game four. However, after three losses, it is highly unlikely that the betting public would have written them off as a poor bet and you could get them as underdogs. Put another way, you cold get a 50% bet without paying even money.
That got us thinking more deeply about streaks. Is there a general rule you should follow when you're playing streaks? Is it better to bet on an 0-3 team when the opponent is on a 3-0 run? Or does it matter? When should you bet against an 0-3 team? To answer these questions for ourselves, and for you, we analyzed MLB results against the moneyline since 1996. Here's what we found.
RULE #1: Play a 0-3 team when the other team won its last game
Betting on an 0-3 team looks like a 50/50 wager. But when we also consider whether the opponent won or lost its last game, we find definite differences. We ignore games where both teams are 0-3, because we can't bet on, or against, both teams.
When opponent lost last game
80-105/-34.5 units
When opponent won last game
510-493/+54.5 units
Now we are striking gold! A team on an 0-3 slide has a better than 50% chance of beating a team which won its last game. How is that possible? It's easy to understand. All other things being equal, any team has a 50% chance of beating another team. A team on a three-game losing skid in not necessarily an inferior team at all; they have essentially the same chance to win as any other team. But the fact that they have lost three games in a row convinces bettors that they are, in fact, an inferior team and so deserves to be underdogs. That's especially convincing when the 0-3 team is facing a team which won the last game. Keep in mind, too, that this data includes three-game series, so when the opponent won its last game, in many cases it was a win over the 0-3 team deserves to be an underdog.
But the facts speak for themselves. The 0-3 team is no more likely to lose than any other team. As the betting public wrongly piles onto the team coming off a win, the value in betting on the underdog climbs higher and higher. That's what makes this such a winning strategy.
RULE #2: Play against 0-3 team when the opponent lost its last game
Recall that when the opponent lost its game, wagering on an 0-3 team is a 80-105/-34.5 units proposition. Why? First of all, if both teams are coming off a loss, we know this is the start of a new series. If this was game two or three of the series, at least one of the teams would be coming off a win. Second, the 0-3 team was swept in its last series. There may be motivational problems which makes them especially vulnerable. A wager against an 0-3 team facing an opponent which lost its last game is
Bet against 0-3 when opponent lost last game
105-80/+27.2 units
How do we explain this? As postulated earlier, it may be that a team which was just swept is particularly unmotivated. Moreover, they may under-estimate a team which is also coming off a loss. However, teams that are coming off a loss tend to play harder because they want to avoid one or two losses turning into a losing streak. That makes them particularly dangerous, and so a good wager.
PITCHERS ON A STREAK
MLB is unique in that a team's performance is so heavily influenced by one player - the pitcher. In fact, it's safe to say that a team is a different team with a different pitcher.
So far, we've discussed how the public's perception can be wrong about a certain team. Does the same hold for a certain pitcher? To begin our discussion, we looked at the performance of betting on a pitcher on a 3-0 run and a pitcher on a 0-3 slide.
Bet against pitcher on 0-3 slide
598-590/-17.0 units
Bet on pitcher on 3-0 run
506-454/+38.1 units
Once again, we appear to be looking at some golden opportunities. As we discovered when we looked at team statistics, a pitcher on an 0-3 slide has about a 50% chance of winning game four. But by this time, the pitcher has gained the public's disfavor and is the underdog. What happens when you wager on the 0-3 pitcher?
Bet on pitcher on 0-3 slide
590-598/-22.1 units
This time, we hit a dead-end. At first, it appears that the winnings cancel out losses, no matter which way you play it. That means the results are totally random, and the betting public doesn't really consider a pitcher's record when they're laying their wagers. Of course, we know that's not true. So, we dug a little deeper and considered the results of an 0-3 pitcher when the opponent's pitcher is coming off a win or coming off a loss.
RULE #3: Wager on 0-3 pitcher when opponent won last game
Like before, we reasoned that the betting public is more likely to favor a winning pitcher against an 0-3 pitcher, and value the 0-3 pitcher as the underdog. But we've already shown that an 0-3 pitcher has about a 50% chance of winning game four. So, if it's true that the 0-3 pitcher is under-valued in game four, we can get a 50/50 wager for less than even money. The results bear out our theory. If you wagered on the 0-3 pitcher when the opponent's pitcher was coming off a win, your record since 1996 is
Bet on 0-3 pitcher vs.. pitcher won last game
268-258/+51.25 units
What we found is that the 0-3 pitcher did indeed win about 50% of the the time. But the betting public was so skeptical of the 0-3 pitcher, they did not value them at even odds.
RULE #4: Bet against 0-3 pitcher when opponent lost last game
It's hard to explain this situation, but we found that an 0-3 pitcher has a significantly lower chance of winning game four when they face a pitcher coming off a loss. In fact, the 0-3 pitcher is in only a 43% chance of the win.
Bet on 0-3 pitcher vs. pitcher lost last game
186-248/-73.35 units
Why would this be true? Why is it that an 0-3 pitcher, who we've already shown has about a 50% chance of winning game four against the average pitcher, actually has a worse chance of beating a pitcher who is coming off a loss? This is a lot like our finding that a 0-3 team is less likely to beat a team coming off a win. One possibility is that the opponent does not want a one- or two-game losing streak to stretch any further, and plays with that much more intensity.
FINAL WORDS
The public does a relatively poor job of predicting winners, and so teams are under-valued all the time. Following streaks helps you uncover teams and pitchers that are performing poorly of late. But, as you've already seen, poor performers have about a 50% chance of turning things around in any given game. You can use streaks to find a 50/50 bet for less than even money. <HR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</CENTER><CENTER>Streaking on the Baseball Diamond
</CENTER>We look at streaks for the same reason investors look at stock performance. When a team has won several games in a row, bettors anticipate that they will keep winning, in just the same way that investors expect a stock to keep rising when it has experienced steady growth for several periods. And when a team is losing, bettors expect them to lose. In sports gambling, as in any form of investing, we are trying to ascertain whether the public has correctly evaluated the team. By way of example, a colleague once suggested to us "Play on any team that's won its last three games, and play against any team that has lost it's last three games. You'll make money every season." Intuitively, our friends advice made sense. A team that has lost three games in a row is sending a signal that it is an inferior team, correct? There is also likely some motivational problems after three straight losses. Similarly, a team that has gotten "hot" and won three games in a row is signaling it's superiority. And it likely has gotten into a confident rhythm which will make it more likely to win game four than the average team.
We were certainly intrigued by this advice. But we were naturally skeptical, so we tested his theory ourselves. We crunched through the last five years of data to see what would happen if you wagered on a three-game winning streak, and against a three-game losing streak.
Bet against team on 0-3 slide
598-590/-68.35 units
Bet on team on 3-0 run
632-548/+17.25 units
I don't know where my friend was getting his advice from, but it turned out to be only half right. In fact, if you inverted that advice to say bet on a team that's on a team that's on an 0-3 slide, your record would be,
Bet on team on 0-3 slide
590-598/+20.0 units
Now, neither one of these "systems" was particularly interesting to us. We're talking about wagering on over 2,000 games for a gain of about 8 units per season. An interesting hobby, perhaps, but not enough to satisfy a die-hard sports gambling enthusiast. What really intrigued us about this is that finding out that teams which had lost 3 games in a row still had a 50% chance of winning going into game four. However, after three losses, it is highly unlikely that the betting public would have written them off as a poor bet and you could get them as underdogs. Put another way, you cold get a 50% bet without paying even money.
That got us thinking more deeply about streaks. Is there a general rule you should follow when you're playing streaks? Is it better to bet on an 0-3 team when the opponent is on a 3-0 run? Or does it matter? When should you bet against an 0-3 team? To answer these questions for ourselves, and for you, we analyzed MLB results against the moneyline since 1996. Here's what we found.
RULE #1: Play a 0-3 team when the other team won its last game
Betting on an 0-3 team looks like a 50/50 wager. But when we also consider whether the opponent won or lost its last game, we find definite differences. We ignore games where both teams are 0-3, because we can't bet on, or against, both teams.
When opponent lost last game
80-105/-34.5 units
When opponent won last game
510-493/+54.5 units
Now we are striking gold! A team on an 0-3 slide has a better than 50% chance of beating a team which won its last game. How is that possible? It's easy to understand. All other things being equal, any team has a 50% chance of beating another team. A team on a three-game losing skid in not necessarily an inferior team at all; they have essentially the same chance to win as any other team. But the fact that they have lost three games in a row convinces bettors that they are, in fact, an inferior team and so deserves to be underdogs. That's especially convincing when the 0-3 team is facing a team which won the last game. Keep in mind, too, that this data includes three-game series, so when the opponent won its last game, in many cases it was a win over the 0-3 team deserves to be an underdog.
But the facts speak for themselves. The 0-3 team is no more likely to lose than any other team. As the betting public wrongly piles onto the team coming off a win, the value in betting on the underdog climbs higher and higher. That's what makes this such a winning strategy.
RULE #2: Play against 0-3 team when the opponent lost its last game
Recall that when the opponent lost its game, wagering on an 0-3 team is a 80-105/-34.5 units proposition. Why? First of all, if both teams are coming off a loss, we know this is the start of a new series. If this was game two or three of the series, at least one of the teams would be coming off a win. Second, the 0-3 team was swept in its last series. There may be motivational problems which makes them especially vulnerable. A wager against an 0-3 team facing an opponent which lost its last game is
Bet against 0-3 when opponent lost last game
105-80/+27.2 units
How do we explain this? As postulated earlier, it may be that a team which was just swept is particularly unmotivated. Moreover, they may under-estimate a team which is also coming off a loss. However, teams that are coming off a loss tend to play harder because they want to avoid one or two losses turning into a losing streak. That makes them particularly dangerous, and so a good wager.
PITCHERS ON A STREAK
MLB is unique in that a team's performance is so heavily influenced by one player - the pitcher. In fact, it's safe to say that a team is a different team with a different pitcher.
So far, we've discussed how the public's perception can be wrong about a certain team. Does the same hold for a certain pitcher? To begin our discussion, we looked at the performance of betting on a pitcher on a 3-0 run and a pitcher on a 0-3 slide.
Bet against pitcher on 0-3 slide
598-590/-17.0 units
Bet on pitcher on 3-0 run
506-454/+38.1 units
Once again, we appear to be looking at some golden opportunities. As we discovered when we looked at team statistics, a pitcher on an 0-3 slide has about a 50% chance of winning game four. But by this time, the pitcher has gained the public's disfavor and is the underdog. What happens when you wager on the 0-3 pitcher?
Bet on pitcher on 0-3 slide
590-598/-22.1 units
This time, we hit a dead-end. At first, it appears that the winnings cancel out losses, no matter which way you play it. That means the results are totally random, and the betting public doesn't really consider a pitcher's record when they're laying their wagers. Of course, we know that's not true. So, we dug a little deeper and considered the results of an 0-3 pitcher when the opponent's pitcher is coming off a win or coming off a loss.
RULE #3: Wager on 0-3 pitcher when opponent won last game
Like before, we reasoned that the betting public is more likely to favor a winning pitcher against an 0-3 pitcher, and value the 0-3 pitcher as the underdog. But we've already shown that an 0-3 pitcher has about a 50% chance of winning game four. So, if it's true that the 0-3 pitcher is under-valued in game four, we can get a 50/50 wager for less than even money. The results bear out our theory. If you wagered on the 0-3 pitcher when the opponent's pitcher was coming off a win, your record since 1996 is
Bet on 0-3 pitcher vs.. pitcher won last game
268-258/+51.25 units
What we found is that the 0-3 pitcher did indeed win about 50% of the the time. But the betting public was so skeptical of the 0-3 pitcher, they did not value them at even odds.
RULE #4: Bet against 0-3 pitcher when opponent lost last game
It's hard to explain this situation, but we found that an 0-3 pitcher has a significantly lower chance of winning game four when they face a pitcher coming off a loss. In fact, the 0-3 pitcher is in only a 43% chance of the win.
Bet on 0-3 pitcher vs. pitcher lost last game
186-248/-73.35 units
Why would this be true? Why is it that an 0-3 pitcher, who we've already shown has about a 50% chance of winning game four against the average pitcher, actually has a worse chance of beating a pitcher who is coming off a loss? This is a lot like our finding that a 0-3 team is less likely to beat a team coming off a win. One possibility is that the opponent does not want a one- or two-game losing streak to stretch any further, and plays with that much more intensity.
FINAL WORDS
The public does a relatively poor job of predicting winners, and so teams are under-valued all the time. Following streaks helps you uncover teams and pitchers that are performing poorly of late. But, as you've already seen, poor performers have about a 50% chance of turning things around in any given game. You can use streaks to find a 50/50 bet for less than even money. <HR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
