WildBill who will you be fading this fall?

Last year WildBill wrote an article on who he thought was going to be teams that would be money betting for and against...If I'm not mistaken he was on the money with this article...Nebraska was on that list as well as a few other teams he pin pointed...

Bill , what was the combined W-L record if you followed your advice on the handful of teams you mentioned....who else was on that list, wasn't it the Huskies?

Yep the Huskies were there, that was a gimme since being an alumni I knew the coach and talent were a joke. Huskies might be a team to modestly back this year. Huskers were the other team, they opened 1-3 ATS and then I backed off as they ended up 4-6 I believe. Far better than the Huskies 1-10.

Haven't decided yet on this year. I am thinking SC is a good candidate. I think the law of averages combined with the incredible hype catches up with the lines. They might win every game but have a lousy ATS record as the inflated numbers get pounded weekly. Never a good idea backing a unanimous number one, only a fool would see any value in that one.

I dont think Cal is the type of team to instantly fade. I look for a highly regarded program which causes bettors to think to themselves things like "Washington can't be this bad" which keeps lines bad for plenty of weeks. Cal is nowhere near that point. I also say it because Tedford is drastically improving the talent level. People will be focused on no Rodgers, but I like the QBs they have with a good QB coach to minimize the drop off. And damn that RB they have is something else, he develops right and he looks like a first rounder to me. Cal indeed won't be quite the same as last year, but a 9-2 season is very achievable and if so likely means a winning ATS season.

Auburn. Losing both backs, and there QB. They will still get the benifit of the doubt the first 5 weeks of the season.


A good team to ride would be Vtech.

I have a thread going about public money etc and you two have just presented me with a classic example of what I'm talking about.

Quote fair warning:
Cal and Oklahoma might be good fades early

Quote Wildbill:
I dont think Cal is the type of team to instantly fade.

Until you see the spread on these games, both of you are talking crap, your only opinion is a guess at being superior to the so-called public, which I hate to tell you both, you are part of.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion Winbet, but you are focused on something completely different IMO. Everyone who has ever bet college sports knows the opportunity that exists in the early season if you are on top of things. The vast majority of the money bet on college sports, especially football, is not very informed. It is far more informed than it used to be thanks to the internet, but still not where it should be. You can literally count on getting value in the first few games betting on teams that should turn things around and against teams that should fall apart, if you have done your homework. The betting line will adjust somewhat, maybe half-way, but not the full way to where the line should be. If Auburn was a 105 power rating last year and in your assesment an 85 this year, you probably will find the books treat them as a 90-95 team. If this a team like USC, the public perception of a great program and how they have fared in the last few years means the book has to make the number even higher, say 95-100. This has nothing to do with public money and such, its the bookmaker making sure he doesn't get sided like crazy. He can't make them an 85 this year as a perceptive person would because he would take on too many bets on one side and the book isn't about to do that. He doesn't mind taking a decision where he thinks the line may be in his favor, but most books aren't crazy enough to write 99% of all action on one side and hope his pre-season analysis was right.

I will set aside a list of teams I want to back and fade, then set up a strategy very early. Of course I will look at the lines, but in almost every single instance of doing this for over 10 years, I have been wrong about the numbers that actually get posted about 5% of the time. The books still have limits to how much they will adjust a view of a team and it has nothing to do with proper analysis. It has to do with the fact that they take bets from the "public" and if the public isn't adjusting their numbers properly, why shouldn't there be value for us to exploit? No it doesn't win every bet, but for the first few weeks of college football I have picked at a 60% clip over the years, with very little work needed after doing some research in July and early August.

choptalk said:

Auburn. Losing both backs, and there QB. They will still get the benifit of the doubt the first 5 weeks of the season.


A good team to ride would be Vtech.

Click to expand...

I totally agree that Auburn is fade city.

:hanging:

Wildbill,

Thank you for your excellent explaination, however I think I am talking about the same thing. My point was that if the Books get the price right, they will snare you both, but if you are the loser, does that mean you are part of a sheep-like herd that has no clue? Because that is precisely what both of you are saying. All I am trying to put across to people is, its not the Public thats stupid, its the Mugs, and I would expect both of you to be smart enough not to take a bad line on your opinions, sadly far too many people dont even consider it.