There isn’t a Day seems to go by without some thread making reference to Public Money, always in a derogatory manner. Some posters talk about fading the Public as if it was a statement that they are sharp, there is even two posters in the Baseball Forum arguing about a game, saying the Public are on the opposite side of their pick.
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I am not certain but like most Myths, it has come about on initial sound reasoning which people eventually, over time distort into a monster, on a side note, it makes great reading from a Tout angle. This one probably came from the Stock Market and their Herd mentality view, which has some merit.
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So, what is Public Money? There are several ways of looking at it, all reasonable assumptions, The Favourite, as most Money will be gambled on it, The Steamer, where the odds collapse, the obvious selection I haven’t a brain punter. Leaving all this aside, to make any judgement on the value of a price, you have to have an opinion. For example, assuming I know what I am talking about, I make New England –3 in a game, when the spreads comes out the books make the game a pick. Because of the perceived value, I load up my maximum and at game time, I am proud of the fact I was right, as the spread is now –3. My Friend however has the opposite view, he considers the game a pick and a no bet, now at –3 he says the spread has gone too far and bets accordingly. The question is, is this line movement due to the so-called Public or so-called sharps or both. The answer is both, putting a value on a price is a personal thing and covers all denominations.
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Now that we have that nonsense out of the way, lets talk about what the original reasoning was and how it still works today. The Herd mentality theory bases it’s thinking on, if enough people buy a stock, there comes a time where it becomes over valued. At the bottom of this curve is where the what we call Mugs, you call squares buy in and its these Mugs people should be talking about, not the Public.
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It’s the Mugs that will be taking –3 New England and even if they win, it’s a suicidal policy. Once again, you have the steamers, regardless of where the origin, only a Mug will take the odds. The other scenario is where you get the good thing, the Books will shorten the odds even more knowing the Mugs will take any price, try betting the other side and you get the knock-back.
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I am not trying to come across smart in this thread, but just want posters to focus more on value than the futility of what the perceived Public play is.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>I am not certain but like most Myths, it has come about on initial sound reasoning which people eventually, over time distort into a monster, on a side note, it makes great reading from a Tout angle. This one probably came from the Stock Market and their Herd mentality view, which has some merit.
<o
></o>So, what is Public Money? There are several ways of looking at it, all reasonable assumptions, The Favourite, as most Money will be gambled on it, The Steamer, where the odds collapse, the obvious selection I haven’t a brain punter. Leaving all this aside, to make any judgement on the value of a price, you have to have an opinion. For example, assuming I know what I am talking about, I make New England –3 in a game, when the spreads comes out the books make the game a pick. Because of the perceived value, I load up my maximum and at game time, I am proud of the fact I was right, as the spread is now –3. My Friend however has the opposite view, he considers the game a pick and a no bet, now at –3 he says the spread has gone too far and bets accordingly. The question is, is this line movement due to the so-called Public or so-called sharps or both. The answer is both, putting a value on a price is a personal thing and covers all denominations.
<o
></o>Now that we have that nonsense out of the way, lets talk about what the original reasoning was and how it still works today. The Herd mentality theory bases it’s thinking on, if enough people buy a stock, there comes a time where it becomes over valued. At the bottom of this curve is where the what we call Mugs, you call squares buy in and its these Mugs people should be talking about, not the Public.
<o
></o>It’s the Mugs that will be taking –3 New England and even if they win, it’s a suicidal policy. Once again, you have the steamers, regardless of where the origin, only a Mug will take the odds. The other scenario is where you get the good thing, the Books will shorten the odds even more knowing the Mugs will take any price, try betting the other side and you get the knock-back.
<o
></o>I am not trying to come across smart in this thread, but just want posters to focus more on value than the futility of what the perceived Public play is.
