National Championship - Florida vs. Texas

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Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns
Fr. LHP Stephen Locke vs. Fr. RHP Adrian Alaniz/ Soph. RHP Kyle McCulloch

General Impression
Texas is making their 3rd National Title appearance in 4 years. Florida is making their 1st ever National Title appearance. Florida was in a great position to make this an interesting series, until they lost game 1 vs. ASU, then Alan Horne went down with a hamstring injury. That forced Florida to use Horne, injure him, and then burn #2 Tommy Boss in relief. #3 starter Ball has elbow problems after starts, so he won't be able to go on short rest. That means Florida's developmental freshman lefthander Stephen Locke will have to take on the Texas Longhorns and all of their WS tradition.

Florida's Starter
Florida starts LHP Stephen Locke. Locke is a true freshman who has pitched some mid-week games and done well against smaller schools. With #3 Balls' tender elbow, he had some spot starts on Sunday's in the SEC and faired well. Not dominant, but well. Today he will face his biggest task ever. He has a Gator Nation on his back with the pressure of playing in the school's first ever National Title appearance against the best college baseball school in the history of the game. Sometimes freshmen don't understand the magnitude of the situation, so this isnt a play against experience. This is a play against bunt defense. Texas is the most fundamentally sound bunting team in the game. They will bunt from inning #1, to inning #9. If they get a man on in inning #1, straight to the bunt. They LOVE to manufacture runs, they love to keep constant pressure on the defense and create holes in the defense by forcing the defense to play the bunt. The problem is Locke. Locke is a freshman so this is his 1st year being introduced to the bunt defense at Florida. Locke is a lefty, and lefties mechanically have a harder time fielding bunts and throwing to 1st because they have to turn their backs to homeplate and make difficult throws. Couple that with the surface being wet from rain on and off, and you have to tippy toe to field bunts, not go after them aggressively to prevent a slip and fall, and I can see a costly error or two in this game on Florida's defense. Florida's bullpen is rested, and they are hoping for 5 innings from Locke, and then they will turn it over to Falkenbach and O'Day. If that happens, Florida is in decent shape for this game. Locke also is at a disadvantage facing a right-handed dominant Texas lineup while he is a lefty.

Texas' Starter
Texas will start RH soph. Kyle McCulloch, or RH freshman Adrian Alaniz. My guess is they start Alaniz since they started him in game 1 of Omaha and he has the most rest. It's his turn to go. I'm not sure how Alaniz fares against this Florida offense. Florida has shown they can struggle all game with offense and with 1 swing of the bat, they could change the game. The Gators have done very well against right handed pitching this post-season, and Alaniz is a solid freshman who will have to pitch well in this game and keep the ball down in the strike zone. Their bullpen is phenomenal if he struggles, and they can run a bunch of guys out there, including J.Brent Cox their stud closer to seal the game if they have the lead in hand.

Florida's Mismatch
Florida's mismatch in this game is their ability to hit the long ball with a consistent threat 1-6 in their order. No lead is safe against Florida at any time in the game, and that makes them a decent dog at this price. This game will rely on how well Jeff Corsaletti gets on base, and more importantly, how their leadoff men get on base in each inning and he's the key to the Florida offense. I look for Florida to use their power reputation against Texas and give Texas a taste of their own medicine, and I look for Florida to try to get men on base anyway they can- Via hit by pitch, walk, errors, and bunting for basehits.

Texas' Mismatch
Texas has a huge experience advantage in this game. They have the intangibles, post-season mystique, etc. Now they will have the offensive advantage, with the wet playing surface for their bunting game, the lefty of the mound, the freshman on the mound, etc. Little known fact, although Florida's offense is great, most people havn't seen their offense at their best yet. Texas is batting about .300 in Omaha, while Florida is batting .222. Texas has the energy and rest advantage, pitching depth advantage, and starting pitching advantage. They have the big-game experience in this one.

Bottom Line
Once this game is over, and it's game 2, Texas wont have as much as an experience advantage. Florida will start Boss, so starting pitching may not big as big of an advantage. If the weather clears up, the wet playing surface isn't an issue anymore, etc. But for this game 1, all signs point to Texas, and it's a half decent price to get them at.

My Line

Texas -210

Current Line

Texas -192

My Play

(5 units) Texas -192

If Alaniz is the announced starter for Texas officially, I will buy back 2 units and make this a 3 unit play. If McCulloch is announced as the starter, I will buy 2 more units to Texas to make it a 7 unit play, if the price is within .10 cents. I trust McCulloch on the mound for Texas a lot more than Alaniz. McCulloch has a nice slider he keeps low in the zone and fools a lot of hitters. That should take away some of Florida's HR threats. Alaniz might have the tendency to leave the ball up and make some mistakes judging how he pitches, and Florida could make some mistakes hurt. At the end of game 1, I fully expect Texas to be on top, and the Gators to adjust in game 2 to Texas' bunt defense.

Best of Luck.
 

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Thanks for putting your bias aside. You are a true professional. Did not think you would make this play.



Now let me ask you the million dollar question. You have your money on Texas. Are you still pulling for Flordia anyway?

Good luck
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Box its been -170 to -186 all day at Pinny. I fully expect that line to rise to over 200.
This is a TREMENDOUS pitching mismatch. Texas #1 vs Floridas #4? #5? #6?
Compound that with this kid being an inexperienced Freshman who hasn't pitched a single game pitch this entire post season but they expect him to start a College World Series Final at Omaha? Pat McMahon has lost it. Game 1 is vital! There is no experimenting here. This leash is going to be extremely short but this is completely the wrong move. In fact, I do not think there is a single good argument going to start this freshman. Unbelievable.

Coach Mac has been kicking back some over this trip :drink:
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Chop I agree, I thought for sure he was going with Florida. However this move that Coach McMahon has made is completely mind-boggling. So much so that it has caused Box to pick Texas.
 

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choptalk said:
Thanks for putting your bias aside. You are a true professional. Did not think you would make this play.



Now let me ask you the million dollar question. You have your money on Texas. Are you still pulling for Flordia anyway?

Good luck


Honestly. Yes I am pulling for Florida. But when I bet, I bet with my head - not with my heart. Having a good knowledge of the team, I feel it's a shame to let all of that information go to waste. I've had a good read on them the whole year, betting against them or with them, even as a huge dog. I really can't see them winning this game 1 unless they get a stellar outing from Locke, the offense puts up some runs, they defend against the bunt well and they get someone to step up in the bullpen. I think it's just asking too much, and they need to play too perfect of a game to win. Anything can happen and these games have been nuts, but it's tough. If Texas starts Alaniz, I think Florida has a better chance against him. In that case like I mentioned, I'll cut back on a couple units and make it a smaller play if the price is reasonable.

Game 2 is a different story, and might be the same play or a different play depending on starters, how much bullpen is used for each team and field conditions. :103631605
 

J-Man Rx NFL Pick 4 Champion for 2005
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Pinny has it at - 186 where I bet it ! Thanks Boxslayer ! GL
 

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Shop early guys. Baseball - 51 TEXAS -183 for Game Hollywood. :103631605
 

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Rawpimple said:
Box its been -170 to -186 all day at Pinny. I fully expect that line to rise to over 200.
This is a TREMENDOUS pitching mismatch. Texas #1 vs Floridas #4? #5? #6?
Compound that with this kid being an inexperienced Freshman who hasn't pitched a single game pitch this entire post season but they expect him to start a College World Series Final at Omaha? Pat McMahon has lost it. Game 1 is vital! There is no experimenting here. This leash is going to be extremely short but this is completely the wrong move. In fact, I do not think there is a single good argument going to start this freshman. Unbelievable.

Coach Mac has been kicking back some over this trip :drink:

Yeah I saw a couple of sites awhile ago had -192, so I thought that was the widely available line.

-170, 180, 186, good stuff.
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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The over is now getting POUNDED at Pinny went from +120 to -121
 

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By the way Chop, thanks for the game of the year yesterday. All those doubters, and you keep sticking to your own plan, what has been working. Great job.
 

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Box,

Can you update me as to who is the starting pitcher when you find out. Shoot me an e-mail or post here if possible. Thanks.

SB
 

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Over is a nice play, most people's books don't have all of these lines. Couple prop bets are nice too.


Over
Florida comes into this game, knowing it has to put up runs to support it's freshman. If Alaniz starts for Texas, I think this game goes over fairly easily. If McCulloch starts, you may have to sweat it out. I'm looking at a 7-4 final for Texas.

Prop Bet

More total bases

Robby Hudson -115 over Justin Tordi (Oly)

Tordi is known for his defense and he's been in a major slump on top of it. The Gators should use his at-bats in the game as purposeful at-bats, and they may take the bat out of his hands. You'll see Tordi trying to bunt for a basehit, sac bunt, etc. That way, even his outs are meaningful attempts to open up the defense and create holes in the 4 and 6 hole through the threat of the bunt even if he is thrown out on bunt attempts. He has also been in a major slump the past 6 weeks of the season on top of it, and has a tendency to strike out.
 

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spreadbeater said:
Box,

Can you update me as to who is the starting pitcher when you find out. Shoot me an e-mail or post here if possible. Thanks.

SB

Yeah, I'm trying to stay on top of it, and I'll post ASAP, for Texas' starting pitcher.
 

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LEYKIS101 said:
Just found -175 at Intertops.


WOW!!!

What is the limit $50 bucks LOL I quit using them years ago.
 

SSI

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ive got florida, or will have... of course ive played every dog in the cws..
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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Here are some stats on Florida's pitcher Stephen Locke

5-1 with a 3.71 ERA 15 Appearances with 10 Games Started

60.2 Innings 67 hits 13 walks to 43 K's 8 HR's (Team Leading) .284 BA

Now most of these are midweek starts against lesser competition at home

Look at his Conference only numbers

1-0 4.58 ERA 5 Appearances and 2 Games Started

17.2 Innings 21 hits 4 walks 11 K's 3 HRs .304 average against

Obviously he has not pitched much during the SEC season. He has not pitched during the Post Season. He is now going to not only pitch but start in the biggest baseball game ever for the Gators against an experienced, powerhouse in Texas.
 

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The last time Locke has pitched was May 25, 2005 against Arkansas in Alabama
His Stats for the game

5.1 IP 9 hits 5 runs 4 ER 1 BB 7 Ks

Exactly one month ago was his last actual game pitch.
 

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The only thing about Locke is that he doesn't walk people.

To be successful against Texas you gotta do 2 things:

1) Defend the bunt
2) Don't walk anyone

You start walking batters, especially leadoff batters, here comes the sac bunt to move him over - all day long.

That's why I loved Florida at +178 if Falkenbach was going. Senior with tons of experience, runs the bunt defense better than anyone on the team being a former closer, he's got a rubber arm, he threw an 11 inning complete game in regionals last year as a spot starter after he relieved all year (yes even as a sidearmer), he has a huge advantage over Texas' righthanded hitting lineup, righties hit .100 points fewer than lefties off of him. He's got tons of experience, and he's a big game pitcher. But lefthander Locke was the decision, and that leads me to believe they just want 4-5 out of him. They want Locke to give everything he has for a couple of innings and he did his job.

If Locke can keep the Gators in the game and give Florida 5 innings pitched, they can turn it over to sidearmers Fakenbach and O'Day to match up against Texa' righties, and with Florida's offense, they could win. But that's just too many things that have to go right to plan.

Today looks like an all-Texas day. Everything from field conditions to matchups to experience favor them.
 

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