Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns
Jr. RH Bryan Ball or Sr. RH Tommy Boss vs. soph. RH Kyle McCulloch
General Impression
For as good as a game that Texas played last night, and as poorly of a game that Florida played, Florida had a chance to tie or win it in the 8th. Now that Texas is a heavier favorite today, which doesn't make sense, and the Gators will start one of their regular rotation guys, it can only make you wonder how this game will play out.
Florida's Pitcher
Florida will start either jr. #3 Bryan Ball or senior #2 Tommy Boss. Boss will be on 2 days rest after throwing 5+ of shutout ball in relief after Alan Horne injured his hamstring. Ball will be on 4 days rest after limiting ASU's offense with tons of groundball outs. Either way, these are regular weekend starters for Florida and nobody is pitching hotter than Tommy Boss right now. Both are righthanders that match up very well against Texas' bunting attack, both are juniors/seniors that have great awareness and execution of the bunt defense. Both aren't strikeout pitchers and rely on getting ahead in the count and getting mishits on balls with great sink, which should limit Texas' homerun threats. Both are righthanders that matchup well against Texas' righthanded hitting lineup. Sidearmers O'Day and Falkenbach shut Texas down yesterday with 5+ IP and 0 runs, and they wait in the wings to take the game over.
Texas' Pitcher
soph. Kyle McCulloch is Texas' ace, on a staff that has no true ace. McCulloch is a righthander that throws a lot of fastballs and a nice slider that when he keeps down in the zone is very effective. We saw this in his last start. If he lets it get to horizantal on him, with no downward drop, he becomes very hittable. Texas saw ASU lefty shut the Gators down with 83% changeups, and yesterday they stuck with a similiar plan having Alaniz throw 80% curveballs. The thing about those two pitchers is they can get away with that because they can spot their changeups and curveballs and throw them for strikes at anytime in the count. McCulloch isnt the same. He tries to keep it low and makes hitters get themselves out and goes for more strikeouts with low sliders. He throws a bit more fastballs which plays into Floridas hand a bit more, and I expect more offense out of Florida today.
Florida's Mismatch
Florida's desperation. Florida is 1-0 in elimination games in the CWS, winning against ASU 2 games ago. They are desperate for a win, their backs are against the wall and they will do anything they can to keep this series alive. There is no tomorrow for them. That means they will empty their entire bullpen if necessary to take advantage of any match-up possible. Texas will be a bit more reserved. If they fall too far behind in this game, they will look ahead to next game, possibly leaving a pitcher out there to dry in an effort to save pitching for next game. Florida will start an experienced regular starter, as opposed to the freshman they threw yesterday that had not pitched in over a month. Thats how Texas got all their runs. Florida's starter will be a righthander to match-up better against this Texas righty lineup. Florida hits a lefthanded lineup, to match against the righthanded McCulloch. Florida also got into J.Brent Cox's head a bit yesterday, and he doesn't seem so invincible anymore to Florida. Texas having a lead isn't as much as a sure thing. Closers get into slumps just like everyone else.
Texas' Mismatch
Their ability to play small ball and win close games. If this game is close, and it comes down to a bunting match, Texas has the advantage. They are one win away and can afford to lose so that may rid some pressure off their shoulders. They also have more pitchers available for this game, although thats shouldn't play a big role in this game. They also have confidence knowing they can beat the Gators, and the momentum.
Bottom Line
Alaniz went 7+ IP and gave up 3 hits in shutting down the Gators offense. You can't expect a repeat performance of that magnitude today from McCulloch. Law of averages, desperation, and the ability of Florida to hit fastball-pitchers says the Gators will put up a few more runs today. Couple that with the better pitching situation on the mound for them today, and as close as that game was yesterday, and that makes Florida a very nice dog at a very nice price.
My Line
Texas -150
Current Line Texas -220
My Play
(3 units) Florida +180
(2 units) Florida +1.5 +102
Pretty much taking my winnings from yesterday and putting it back into a nice bet, pretty much 5 units to win 10. So, if this loses, no big deal. But if it wins, we get a huge 10 unit winner. If Florida wins a game in this series, this is the game. Too much juice to lay on Texas for this situation. Texas is not a team that blows people out, Florida has their better pitchers on the mound today, and you can't expect their offense to have 3 hits through 8 innings again tonight. Great price for today's situation.
Best of Luck.
Jr. RH Bryan Ball or Sr. RH Tommy Boss vs. soph. RH Kyle McCulloch
General Impression
For as good as a game that Texas played last night, and as poorly of a game that Florida played, Florida had a chance to tie or win it in the 8th. Now that Texas is a heavier favorite today, which doesn't make sense, and the Gators will start one of their regular rotation guys, it can only make you wonder how this game will play out.
Florida's Pitcher
Florida will start either jr. #3 Bryan Ball or senior #2 Tommy Boss. Boss will be on 2 days rest after throwing 5+ of shutout ball in relief after Alan Horne injured his hamstring. Ball will be on 4 days rest after limiting ASU's offense with tons of groundball outs. Either way, these are regular weekend starters for Florida and nobody is pitching hotter than Tommy Boss right now. Both are righthanders that match up very well against Texas' bunting attack, both are juniors/seniors that have great awareness and execution of the bunt defense. Both aren't strikeout pitchers and rely on getting ahead in the count and getting mishits on balls with great sink, which should limit Texas' homerun threats. Both are righthanders that matchup well against Texas' righthanded hitting lineup. Sidearmers O'Day and Falkenbach shut Texas down yesterday with 5+ IP and 0 runs, and they wait in the wings to take the game over.
Texas' Pitcher
soph. Kyle McCulloch is Texas' ace, on a staff that has no true ace. McCulloch is a righthander that throws a lot of fastballs and a nice slider that when he keeps down in the zone is very effective. We saw this in his last start. If he lets it get to horizantal on him, with no downward drop, he becomes very hittable. Texas saw ASU lefty shut the Gators down with 83% changeups, and yesterday they stuck with a similiar plan having Alaniz throw 80% curveballs. The thing about those two pitchers is they can get away with that because they can spot their changeups and curveballs and throw them for strikes at anytime in the count. McCulloch isnt the same. He tries to keep it low and makes hitters get themselves out and goes for more strikeouts with low sliders. He throws a bit more fastballs which plays into Floridas hand a bit more, and I expect more offense out of Florida today.
Florida's Mismatch
Florida's desperation. Florida is 1-0 in elimination games in the CWS, winning against ASU 2 games ago. They are desperate for a win, their backs are against the wall and they will do anything they can to keep this series alive. There is no tomorrow for them. That means they will empty their entire bullpen if necessary to take advantage of any match-up possible. Texas will be a bit more reserved. If they fall too far behind in this game, they will look ahead to next game, possibly leaving a pitcher out there to dry in an effort to save pitching for next game. Florida will start an experienced regular starter, as opposed to the freshman they threw yesterday that had not pitched in over a month. Thats how Texas got all their runs. Florida's starter will be a righthander to match-up better against this Texas righty lineup. Florida hits a lefthanded lineup, to match against the righthanded McCulloch. Florida also got into J.Brent Cox's head a bit yesterday, and he doesn't seem so invincible anymore to Florida. Texas having a lead isn't as much as a sure thing. Closers get into slumps just like everyone else.
Texas' Mismatch
Their ability to play small ball and win close games. If this game is close, and it comes down to a bunting match, Texas has the advantage. They are one win away and can afford to lose so that may rid some pressure off their shoulders. They also have more pitchers available for this game, although thats shouldn't play a big role in this game. They also have confidence knowing they can beat the Gators, and the momentum.
Bottom Line
Alaniz went 7+ IP and gave up 3 hits in shutting down the Gators offense. You can't expect a repeat performance of that magnitude today from McCulloch. Law of averages, desperation, and the ability of Florida to hit fastball-pitchers says the Gators will put up a few more runs today. Couple that with the better pitching situation on the mound for them today, and as close as that game was yesterday, and that makes Florida a very nice dog at a very nice price.
My Line
Texas -150
Current Line Texas -220
My Play
(3 units) Florida +180
(2 units) Florida +1.5 +102
Pretty much taking my winnings from yesterday and putting it back into a nice bet, pretty much 5 units to win 10. So, if this loses, no big deal. But if it wins, we get a huge 10 unit winner. If Florida wins a game in this series, this is the game. Too much juice to lay on Texas for this situation. Texas is not a team that blows people out, Florida has their better pitchers on the mound today, and you can't expect their offense to have 3 hits through 8 innings again tonight. Great price for today's situation.
Best of Luck.
