Tues Plays and Write-ups

spo-vegas · Jun 28, 2005

5-3 YTD 63% (2-1 yesterday)

Atlanta +170 - Why you ask? Well Mr. Bill Hohn is umping behind the plate tonight with a soild 12-1 record for the away team, and Home Favs are 0-7 with him. Also I have a hard time going against a team that is 9-2 in the past 11 games vs a team that is struggling to score runs....plus Willis is not the same in FLA as he is on the road.

Colorado +1 1/2 -110 - why again? Have a feeling Mr. Clemens does not have his "A" game tonight...Jennings can surprise you with his pitching...Jekyl and Hyde type of player....oh yeah COL was out to a 2-0 lead last week vs Clemens...tonight they should get the W at home...but I'll be safe and take the extra run....

NYY -120 - Think all of the pressure is getting to Baltimore and the Yanks are thriving right now...Ponson is tough on the Yanks in NYC, but at home vs NYY is 0-5 Ouch!! Yanks at this price with the mojo flowing is a gift...

NY Mets -110 - Phils are down after the disapointing performance vs Boston over the weekend, and have to gut it up and face an insipired Mets team...plus the Mets have lost 3 in a row as home favs....the trend is 21-9 this season that they don't lose their 4th...another note Zambrano is 11-2 in home games after a loss

St Louis -1.5 -115 - Can't believe I don't see more players on this....yeah Mulder got lit up like a Christmas tree last week in Cinncy..but he pitches like crap during the daytime...The guy is 7-1 in the evening games with 3+ more runs scored for him than the opps. St Louis is 7-1 with a day off, 12-1 in the first game of a series after a loss, and Cinncy is 7-26 on the road and 5-18 in rd games after a loss...St Louis might put up 9 themselves tonight and watch Mulder shut down the Reds....

Also like Minny (6-0vs KC this yr) but hate the juice might parlay with St Louis and SD looks nice but Lawerance is 0-7 vs a team with a losing record this season....

BilMirg · Jun 28, 2005

Those are interesting stats on the Cardinals but I've seen Mulder up close and personal two games this year and he has nothing! They well may win but Mulder scares me. The play on this game may be the over. I'm playing Cincy +1.5 and the over.

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 28, 2005

Your name is familiar. Didn't you rip it up in college basketball this year?

spo-vegas · Jun 28, 2005

Yeah Death....College BB was good to me...something like 75% winners...found a way to cap those games and win some serious $$....baseball is definalty tougher. Still think College Football is the easiest to cap....should put up around 75-80% winners this yr....

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 28, 2005

spo-vegas said:
Yeah Death....College BB was good to me...something like 75% winners...found a way to cap those games and win some serious $$....baseball is definalty tougher. Still think College Football is the easiest to cap....should put up around 75-80% winners this yr....

Yeah, I think I wrote your name down somewhere to look for next year when CBB starts up.

College football is the only sport I know enough about to offer picks. Looking forward to seeing you this fall.

Best of luck.

Gary_Philly · Jun 28, 2005

Best Wishes!!

Stilwell · Jun 28, 2005

Thanks for posting Spo. I watched you in hoops some this year and you did a great job. I hope you come around for football too.
Interesting dope on ump in Atl game.

I think rockies are worth a try. I think they have only been swept once at home this year. Orioles on slide, a play against team the rest of the way, still over lined.
Reds on the road a no brainer. In short, I like your picks. GL

parlayin · Jun 28, 2005

spo, do you purposely wait for mid-season to start betting in order to get a feel for the teams?

spo-vegas · Jun 28, 2005

Par....Yes - this way trends, stats, weather, umps, all that can be used to get a feel on a game....I can usually look at a match-up and say on the surface this team or that team "should" win...and then you use some of the trends/stats to back-up or back-away from the play....when I first started out I found myself playing -200 hm favs and good pitchers on the rd at -150 and higher....but found that over time I had to win a bunch more games to come out ahead in case I had a bad day....b/c if you load up on a hm fav at -200 to say win $1000 it's a huge hole to dig out of to get that $2000 back...

If you didn't look at the ump trend in the ATL/FLA game you'd say Willis all the way. but 1-12 rec for the hm team and ATL at +$180 it only takes $550 to get a nice payoff vs risking $2000!!

So now I'll try and only play -1.5 RL's on big hm favs in certain situations ie off a loss or against a pathetic road team (KC, Cinncy, TB, Houston, Colorado)....then find hm teams that are tough to beat at home. Colorado, St Louis, Houston, Washington and play against the pathetic road team when they come to town. Who would have known that Washington would be a powerhouse in RFK this yr...??

So tonight you have good hm teams: Colorado, Minnesota and St Louis vs bad road teams: Houston, KC and Cinncy....at least a 2 for 3 in these....that's +$$$ everynight!

kidslick · Jun 28, 2005

looking very very nice

JohnnyFairPlay · Jun 28, 2005

I liked your analysis. I agreed on all but Colorado and after their pitching debacle last night, I wouldn't lay any more cash on them. You deserved a better fate on the Yanks and St. Louis. Their bats didn't show up. Look forward to your thoughts tomorrow.

JohnnyFairPlay · Jun 28, 2005

hmmmm....so much for Houston relief pitching! lol....just gave up a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth. Wow.

THawk+ · Jun 28, 2005

Liked your picks today Spo but did not get any luck at all...

Come right back with Cards and Rocks next game, they will win....

Oh and great job in CBB last season....

SqueezePlay · Jun 29, 2005

I've got to say that this was one of the most impressive posts I've seen in awhile. Willis was immediately frustrated by the umpire and was in trouble all night. As for Colorado, the game didn't play out the way I expected. Jennings gave up the Grand Slam, but the Houston bullpen returned the favor. I liked Cincy's chances but they are stone cold awful with runners on base. NYY should have won. Great night overall and look forward to your future posts!

THANKS!

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