All right people I'm coming to the mountain so to speak regarding "value". I see almost every day some one taking for example a +175 dog. The reason giving is that there is value on that team. That team is a +175 dog for a reason. The odds of them winning the game is low. I'm lost on how to see this and pull the trigger when it comes to my own plays. If they have a low chance of winning how is it a value play?
Alot of times I will make a bet on a dog knowing I have more than a 50% chance of losing if I think the line has value. What I mean by value is the fact that in my case the other day I took the Brewers +175 against the Twins. When I made the wager I was fully prepared to lose the bet. You had Santanna on the mound that day. Of course the Twins would win in that spot more than 50% of the time.
But since I knew the line had value I took it anyway, because I feel if I make that play 100 times im going to be on the plus side of money.
I have a chart saved on my other computer that has the % that a certain team must win out of 100 games at each different price. Next time I use my other computer on this site I will post this chart for all to see and save.
But since I knew the line had value I took it anyway, because I feel if I make that play 100 times im going to be on the plus side of money.
I have a chart saved on my other computer that has the % that a certain team must win out of 100 games at each different price. Next time I use my other computer on this site I will post this chart for all to see and save.
Baseball is not about picking winners. Its about finding value. You can pick 40% winners and be in the plus money and you can pick 60% winners and be in the minus money.
I wish everyone understood this concept. Its not about picking winners, it about being on the right side of the value. I know ignorant people may read this and blast me for that comment. So be it. Its the truth. I have 7.5 strait years of winning capping to prove it.
I wish everyone understood this concept. Its not about picking winners, it about being on the right side of the value. I know ignorant people may read this and blast me for that comment. So be it. Its the truth. I have 7.5 strait years of winning capping to prove it.
Just to add a nugget to what Chop said, The worst team in a given year will win about 60 games. So, don't fool yourself into never picking a Kansas City or Tampa Bay type of team because these teams can be money makers in the right match-up. I won't play any favorite over -140 but I look long and hard at the dogs because of their VALUE.
I understand finding value is what I need to be doing, and that dogs are for the most part the way to go, but lets say a dog +130 and the value for that dog is +160. i have not figured out how to determine when the value is there. I have wagered on 145 games and am up roughly 6 percent of my bankroll. I feel I'm spinning wheels and this value concept is why.
rchrdschn said:
Ok to go off of what your saying rchrdschn, knowing when to plays these type of teams is the part I am having trouble grasping. Having a tough time figuring out when to pull the trigger. Have been capping baseball for two years so i do understand there is a learning curve. But the RX is a great forum and I think the perfect place to pose this question.
I would say I am capable of adding some VALUE to this conversation hahaha......Most definitley!!!!
Baseball is a season long gamble, and you must First understand one thing before you can locate value. It has nothing to do with the exact price of a line that constitutes value. It has to do with why the line is priced the way that it is. ANyone who has gambled for a long time, knows that public perception drives lines to a strong degree, it also is well known, that certain probabiliies require a line be set a with a certain price...Home game, the pitcher, the team matchups, the strength. A certain player back in the line up. The one thing you must understand about baseball is that ALL LINES ARE MONEY LINES.......Therefore a house knows Favs will be bet, and they will raise that price on favs to protect the probability.......but that does not mean the fav will win the game. It is house protection against probability, and that is what a money line is......a PRICE OF PROBABILITY.
But you must remember to Chops point and others.....EVERYTIME A BASEBALL LINE IS SET, MINUS A FEW EXCEPTION PITCHERS.......the linesmakers are gambling as well. There is no exact science to making a baseball line. I could make baseball lines eeryday of my life......and that and a dollar gets me 2 dunkin doughnuts. You also have to realize that the MAJORITY OF BASEBALL GAMBLERS AND FANS ARE ALL X'S AND O'S FOLLOWERS.......well imagine trying to tell a REAL baseball enthusiast that his stats are full of sh1t when it comes to gambling. That is like telling a Catholic that the Pope is immoral.......so traditonal perception is also why a price is set in a baseball game.
And another thing....Baseball linesmakers have to set high prices....Why because in baseball all you have to do everyday of your life....regardless of the price is pick the winner.......There is no Cowboys -7, or Pistons -3, or Tarheels -14.5 Just pick the winner....and you win.
So where do you find value....You find it by TREND watching, and betting mulitple plays. Chop is right......You can bet 15 plays a night and spread your money around by drawing out of a hat, and probabaly make money, just because DOGS win in BASEBALL everynight of your life.......SO just start trending.....do not too crazy on x's and o's, realize linesmakers are not using any exact science in bases and they are gambling when they make the lines
and remember PICK THE WINNER OF THE GAME AND YOU WIN......end of story!!!!! gl NEWPORT
Baseball is a season long gamble, and you must First understand one thing before you can locate value. It has nothing to do with the exact price of a line that constitutes value. It has to do with why the line is priced the way that it is. ANyone who has gambled for a long time, knows that public perception drives lines to a strong degree, it also is well known, that certain probabiliies require a line be set a with a certain price...Home game, the pitcher, the team matchups, the strength. A certain player back in the line up. The one thing you must understand about baseball is that ALL LINES ARE MONEY LINES.......Therefore a house knows Favs will be bet, and they will raise that price on favs to protect the probability.......but that does not mean the fav will win the game. It is house protection against probability, and that is what a money line is......a PRICE OF PROBABILITY.
But you must remember to Chops point and others.....EVERYTIME A BASEBALL LINE IS SET, MINUS A FEW EXCEPTION PITCHERS.......the linesmakers are gambling as well. There is no exact science to making a baseball line. I could make baseball lines eeryday of my life......and that and a dollar gets me 2 dunkin doughnuts. You also have to realize that the MAJORITY OF BASEBALL GAMBLERS AND FANS ARE ALL X'S AND O'S FOLLOWERS.......well imagine trying to tell a REAL baseball enthusiast that his stats are full of sh1t when it comes to gambling. That is like telling a Catholic that the Pope is immoral.......so traditonal perception is also why a price is set in a baseball game.
And another thing....Baseball linesmakers have to set high prices....Why because in baseball all you have to do everyday of your life....regardless of the price is pick the winner.......There is no Cowboys -7, or Pistons -3, or Tarheels -14.5 Just pick the winner....and you win.
So where do you find value....You find it by TREND watching, and betting mulitple plays. Chop is right......You can bet 15 plays a night and spread your money around by drawing out of a hat, and probabaly make money, just because DOGS win in BASEBALL everynight of your life.......SO just start trending.....do not too crazy on x's and o's, realize linesmakers are not using any exact science in bases and they are gambling when they make the lines
and remember PICK THE WINNER OF THE GAME AND YOU WIN......end of story!!!!! gl NEWPORT
zip32 said:
Another misconception. You cant win simply by picking dogs. There is also value in favorites. Just because a team is -250 does not mean there is no value. Just because a team is +300 does not mean there is value.
To answer your question that where the handicapping comes in to play. You have to learn how to figure value.
I dont have my chart in front of me, but I have many of the prices memorized from doing this for such a long period of time. I will give you an example.
If you take a team at -210 that team must win 68% of the time to break even. This means that if team A plays team B Team a being the favorite would have to go 68-32 against team b to break even. Thats alot of winning. Believe it or not, there are not a bunch of matchups in the majors where any team wins 68% of the time. So with that being said there is a pretty good chance that if you took all dogs at +200 or more at the best price posiable you can win with good money management just doing this simple stratagy.Baseball is all about value and not picking winners.
Here is the #1 thing that kills the average baseball player over the corse of the season.
Its so easy to take the -290 team thinking its a sure thing. These betters will win most of the time because most -290 teams win. But its always going to come back to bite them in the ass in the longrun because they are betting agianst the value. If you keep betting against the value you will get killed in the long run every last time. Your winning % may be over 55% but your bankroll will be in the negitive. Here is a fine article I will post for you on this subject. Everyone who does not understand this concept needs to memorize this article. Its worth more money than any LOCK OF THE YEAR YOU HAVE EVER SEEN IN YOUR LIFE. Its the secrect to winning bases.
Last week we talked about which is more important, hitting or pitching, when picking winners in baseball. This week I want to discuss moneylines in baseball and how the mathematics involved should impact your wagering decision.
Lets start with a question. Which of these bets would you prefer to place?
$300 to win $100 on a heavy favorite (-300) with a 75% chance of winning?
$150 to win $100 on a medium favorite (-150) with a 60% chance of winning?
$100 to win $200 on an underdog (+200) with a 33.33% chance of winning?
This is a trick question; the correct answer is that each scenario is essentially the same with an expected return of $0.
In scenario ‘a’, 75% of the time you win $100 but you lose $300 the other 25%.
Expected return = (.75 * 100) – (.25 * 300) = 75 – 75 = 0
In scenario ‘b’, 60% of the time you win $100 but you lose $150 the other 40%.
Expected return = (.60 * 100) – (.40 * 150) = 60 – 60 = 0
In scenario ‘c’, 33.33% of the time you win $200 but you lose $100 the other 66.66%.
Expected return = (.3333 * 200) – (.6666 * 100) = 66.66 – 66.66 = 0
I think you can see the pattern here. To calculate the percentage of wins required to break-even for any moneyline use the following formula:
Required Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)
E.g.: a line of –110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100 so...
Required win % = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110/210 = 52.38%
Understand what this article is talking about and you wont sucker yourself in all these inflated lines.
The two gentle men who responded about the value question make some very valid points . For me though I find that like in most sports the Books concentrate on getting a solid number for side Players and kind of let those in the know take shots at them by betting Totals .I would say 80% of my plays are MLB Totals .If you would like to talk further about what it is I like about betting Totals just drop me an EM at magic4u23@yahoo.com
It is a MONEY LINE......PICK THE WINNER AND YOU WIN
This is all you need to KNOW!!!!!....You get caught up on the number......you are done!!!!! You will scare yourself into a mental state. JUST PICK the winner of the game....and realize any price can go down
and if anyone says that picking the winne of the game is easier said then done
NO F"N SH!T!!!!!! then quit gambling.......because by the way that is what you are doing.....gambling
This is all you need to KNOW!!!!!....You get caught up on the number......you are done!!!!! You will scare yourself into a mental state. JUST PICK the winner of the game....and realize any price can go down
and if anyone says that picking the winne of the game is easier said then done
NO F"N SH!T!!!!!! then quit gambling.......because by the way that is what you are doing.....gambling
NEWPORT said:
I respectfully disagree.
If you have a favorite at -300 and you take that favorite and it wins on that particular day, this does not mean you picked the succesful side unless you can conclusivly know that that side playing the other side would go 75-25 in a 100 game series. You may win that one bet. As a matter of fact you will win that bet more than you lose it. But if you keep making that same bet the entire season your bankroll will pay for it big time.
I bet only a few value plays and I am looking for teams to win mostly. I am the only one I have ever met that can win on chalk! Notice I passed on Marlins today and that guy that wanted to win 50,000 by the end of the season, Well, I gave him a parlay to win 50,000 today!
arty: arty: arty: arty:
arty: arty: arty: arty:choptalk said:
You made a POOR assumption that I bet -300 games....JUST BECAUSE I SAID PICK THE WINNER....DOES NOT MEAN I SAID GO DOWN THE ENTIRE LIST OF GAMES AND PICK EVERY WINNER......AND I would highly recommend on any -300 is to first look at the dog, then look at the value of a 5 inning -1/2 line, and then look at a -1.5 line....which I realize takes it away from being a money line.
Chop I have never bet a -300 in my life......and grasshopper when you can snatch the pebble of my money line plays in Baskets, Football, and Bases on the Plus side, the you can disagree.......WHo in the hell bets every baseball game on the board a nght......not I. Saying to focusing on picking the winner is saying to focus on the OUTCOME of a GAME.......not get too wigged out on the price. You took my statement and customized it to a -300 play
naughty boy
Value, to me is getting the best team at the best price, now im playing a strictly mechanical system at the moment, so this question does not pertain to what im doing..
Value is in getting a hot atl team at (+1.70) or higher.. its simply getting the best team at the best price, i do not find value in the bad teams, no matter the price.. I know they will win 60 out of 162 but to me -- thats not value, if im playing TB, to find value in that, they would be at HOME as a dog to milwaukee or another mid to low level team,, for me there would never be value (no matter the price) in TB/Col/KC and several others - when they are on the road..
On the flip side, there is never any value in taking a large favorite, sure you can pick an isolated game and win.. but play 10 favorites every night for a week and show me your (+/- units), not wins but units won or lost..
im tired tonight chop, ill try and comment more later,, the bos/tb/tex took it out of me tonight..
Value is in getting a hot atl team at (+1.70) or higher.. its simply getting the best team at the best price, i do not find value in the bad teams, no matter the price.. I know they will win 60 out of 162 but to me -- thats not value, if im playing TB, to find value in that, they would be at HOME as a dog to milwaukee or another mid to low level team,, for me there would never be value (no matter the price) in TB/Col/KC and several others - when they are on the road..
On the flip side, there is never any value in taking a large favorite, sure you can pick an isolated game and win.. but play 10 favorites every night for a week and show me your (+/- units), not wins but units won or lost..
im tired tonight chop, ill try and comment more later,, the bos/tb/tex took it out of me tonight..
I usually look for value in the pitcher. I love quality pitchers that have proven themselves in the past, then bet them after 1 or 2 bad outings. Especially after getting over an injury. The betting public is about "what have you done for me lately". Right now I feel Greinke of Kansas City, Schmidt of San Fran, Peavy after his bout with the flu and even Randy Johnson have value as the public remembers how these pitchers have burned them of late.
I believe the biggest reason people lose in baeball is because they want to win every bet they make. Now everyone wants to win, but if you are trying to pick every winner, the juice will eat you alive. My record is 276-236 for the year. That is only 54% winners yet I am up 101.70 units. Now these plays are at an average of about 3 units per play so I am really up around 35 true units. Now how do you get up that many units at only 54%? At -110 (standard juice) I would be up 16.04 units on the year. The key is small favorites or solid dog plays. I don't play as many dogs as most, but good live dogs are a must in baseball. Also avoiding the large favorites that lose is obviously as important as it takes 2 other winners to make up for this kind of loss.
What I am trying to say is you cant expect to win every game. You have to find the games with value (when you feel a line is off) and bet them. I play around 5 to 8 games a day that I feel are off by 30cents or more. If my line is sharper than the books I make money. So far this has worked out great for me.
I believe the biggest reason people lose in baeball is because they want to win every bet they make. Now everyone wants to win, but if you are trying to pick every winner, the juice will eat you alive. My record is 276-236 for the year. That is only 54% winners yet I am up 101.70 units. Now these plays are at an average of about 3 units per play so I am really up around 35 true units. Now how do you get up that many units at only 54%? At -110 (standard juice) I would be up 16.04 units on the year. The key is small favorites or solid dog plays. I don't play as many dogs as most, but good live dogs are a must in baseball. Also avoiding the large favorites that lose is obviously as important as it takes 2 other winners to make up for this kind of loss.
What I am trying to say is you cant expect to win every game. You have to find the games with value (when you feel a line is off) and bet them. I play around 5 to 8 games a day that I feel are off by 30cents or more. If my line is sharper than the books I make money. So far this has worked out great for me.
Another great place to find value is in injuries. During and after. Take Vlad out of the Angels lineup and it is very week. They become a low scoring grind out team and play that way. They lose to teams that they shouldn't and dont score many runs when they win. He comes back and they go a huge winning streak as everyone around him gets better. The other players get better pitches because they dont want baserunner when he is up etc. etc. Same thing with the Astros. Look how bad they were without Berkman. They still are not a great team, but they have had some value based on their proformance while he was out. If Andrew Jones were to get injured the under and the dog please. You get the picture. Don't underestimate the value of a star in the lineup.... or out of it.
tn
ps. Watch the Dodgers offense when Milton Bradley gets back.
tn
ps. Watch the Dodgers offense when Milton Bradley gets back.
Every one I appreciate the feedback thus far. That is what makes this a great forum. Out of the info stated I can see a couple of things that i am doing that are both good and bad. On the good is i have not bet a money line favorite higher than 150 all year. A few misses at that price or higher eats up the bankroll. On the bad I realize I need to get a feel for what exactly a live dog is. I need to pay closer attention to situations more closely such as home vs away or day vs night or righty vs lefty. This will also lead to favorites that are have value also.
rchrdschn said:
This is often a misused statistic you often see mentioned in various capping articles and books. I love it b/c it introduces amateur sports cappers and gives them "a little information to be dangerous".
The amateur sports capper uses this logic to justify +175 and higher dogs. The worst team will not win 37% (60/162) of their games when they are a heavy dog. The 37% of the games they win are blended across all games, including the games when the worst teams are actually favs or close to pk lines.
Let's take the worst team in 2004: Arizona went 51-111. Of the 51 games that they won, they were favs in 23 of them, pkem in 4. That means they only won 15% (24/162) of games as a dog!!!
Faced with a 15% number (rather than the often quoted 33-40% number), maybe bettors would think twice before concluding "I'll take the dog line, there's value there, even the worst teams when 1/3 of their games."
