Profiting on Preseason Football by Overlay

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This article is about a year old, but I thought this might be a good read for some of you with NFLX being 38 days away

Profiting on Preseason Football by Overlay

August 4th, 2004
As a contrarian, I often start by assuming that things are usually the opposite of what they appear to be. It is commonly assumed, for example, that anyone who wagers on a preseason football game is a derelict, an action freak, or a sicko. What can a bettor possibly have to go on? Stats are meaningless; angles are based on extremely small samples; records are meaningless; coaches want to avoid injuries to key players. It all looks like a crapshoot. That's what most people think, which is precisely what drew me to investigate preseason football rigorously more than twenty years ago. If most people think it's a bad (-EV) proposition, well that gives a contrarian like me hope.

If it is true that the bettor has little to go on, well then, how does the linesmaker make a line on these games? What does he have to go on? It is interesting to observe that over the last twenty years, the lines on preseason games have gradually narrowed to the point where one rarely finds a game in which one team is favored by 7 or more points. In fact, the majority of games are lined around the 3. Olympic's early line for Preseason Week One games made only two teams more than a 3 point favorite and the biggest spread was 5 points. If one assumes for the sake of argument that the home field is worth 3 points (in most cases), the lines-maker is saying that the majority of games are toss-ups. Perhaps the lines-maker is as much in the dark as the derelict bettors.

I have made significant profits wagering on preseason football in 17 of the last 20 years. Over the past two years, my record at SSB against widely available lines is 18-10-3 (64%) including 12-6-1 last year my first as a host. My selections in the preseason are based entirely on three angles that I have thoroughly researched. All of these angles have Z-scores above 3.3 and a long record of success in the preseason. I am not inclined to reveal precisely the methods I use but I will here give some hints about basic strategy.
  • Divide the preseason into the four weeks (of full schedules). Motivation will differ radically over the course of the four weeks. In week one take a hard look at the weakest teams from last year. The common assumption is that these teams will be out to win in game one so they may be inflated as favorites if they are playing at home. After week one take a good look at which teams played poorly in their last game. The worse the better as far as wagering opportunities. Especially good when a decisive loser plays a decisive winner. Even better when the loser has a new coach. Be careful in Week 3. This is the week most like a regular season game.
  • Speaking of new coaches, they are usually coaching the worst teams from the previous year. One of their first goals is to change the team's losing attitude. You do that by winning and by avoiding losing streaks. They also want to win over the fans. Whereas most home dogs are not particularly good plays in the preseason, new coaches as home dogs often are excellent plays (depending on the whole scenario of course, i.e. level of competition). New coaches certainly don't want to look bad the whole preseason.
  • Some teams and coaches are patently uninterested in the preseason. Marv Levy is the best known example and during his tenure as coach of Buffalo a lot of professional-level bettors made a small fortune. Parcells is the opposite; he hates to lose and always warrants a close look as a dog. In considering the level of motivation, it is useful to look not only at the persona of the coach but also at the strengths and weaknesses of teams based on the previous season. Which teams had trouble running the ball? Chances are they're going to pound the rock in the preseason. Which teams had trouble stopping the run? They may play their starting front longer. Which teams were the cream on offense and defense the previous season? Do they have anything at all to prove? If not, they may make good go against teams as chalk since they have no real reason to play their starters very long and their whole goal may be to avoid injuries. In the preseason, qualitative judgments take priority over quantitative ones.
  • Streaking teams are worth a look as we get closer to the start of the season. Going into the regular season undefeated can give a team a really good feeling. One of my biggest plays last preseason was on Carolina -1 in week 4 against a struggling Steelers team that was having a miserable preseason. Most bettors had the Steelers penciled in as the motivated team especially after Cower said he would play his starters into the third quarter because the Steelers needed a good performance, i.e. a win. The Steelers took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and seemed likely to run away with it. Off the bench came Jake Delhomme who led Carolina to a 21-14 come from behind win. For those who think the preseason is meaningless, well, they might take a closer look at this game. The 4-0 Panthers went to Superbowl; the 1-3 Steelers had their worst season in years. Oh, by the way, the Panthers lost in the Superbowl to the Patriots. What was their preseason record? 4-0!!!
 

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THAT is one AWESOME article.

Overlay is a world class handicapper, and his genius shines threw in just a 1-2 page article that has more teeth than many posters will show during the entire year.

BOOKMARK THIS ONE!!

:party: :103631605 :103631605

Overlay is one of a few that I'd wager is a strong favorite to win in any NBA or NFL season, and he can be found at sharpsportsbetting.com, one of the sharpest spots on the web.
 

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Fezzik said:
Overlay is a world class handicapper, and his genius shines threw in just a 1-2 page article that has more teeth than many posters will show during the entire year.

BOOKMARK THIS ONE!!

:party: :103631605 :103631605

Overlay is one of a few that I'd wager is a strong favorite to win in any NBA or NFL season, and he can be found at sharpsportsbetting.com, one of the sharpest spots on the web.

Hmmmmmm. $120 a month for 190-150-5 for 55.9%, +22.59 units over the past three seasons?

I'll take ACE-ACE for free.
 

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This explains why no honest capper can make any real money

55% isn't a good longterm record. It is a GREAT record. It will make subscribers more money than they know what to do with.

The problem is that it is only achievable by the best of the best. People want to believe in the mythical longterm 58% capper vs. Widely Available lines in major sports. They don't exist. And if they did, they would be making millions and millions betting, not selling picks.
 

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Fezzik said:
55% isn't a good longterm record. It is a GREAT record. It will make subscribers more money than they know what to do with.

The problem is that it is only achievable by the best of the best. People want to believe in the mythical longterm 58% capper vs. Widely Available lines in major sports. They don't exist. And if they did, they would be making millions and millions betting, not selling picks.

How come he's selling picks and not making millions and millions, considering you say its a great record and would make more money than you would know what to do with.
 

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Fezzik said:
55% isn't a good longterm record. It is a GREAT record. It will make subscribers more money than they know what to do with.

The problem is that it is only achievable by the best of the best. People want to believe in the mythical longterm 58% capper vs. Widely Available lines in major sports. They don't exist. And if they did, they would be making millions and millions betting, not selling picks.

Show me some one who advises people to even waste one grey cell contemplating betting on NFL preseason games and i will show you and idiot who has never made a dime gambling on anything!!!!!!
How dumb can any one be to seriously even start giving out advice on betting on preseason NFL???? pre-Fucqing-season!!!!! are you kidding me?

Preseason games are meaningless contests that cant even be properly handicapped and i dont care if you claim to have an irish midget who tells you the winner when you pull his big toe really hard.

I dont care who you are but you have to be a complete baffoon to even suggest that i should pay any one to tell me who to bet on in a meaningless preseason game!!!!
 
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Red, pre-season NFL is very, VERY beatable if you have the right information. In fact, it can be downright theft!
 

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This looks like a good cue for Panther to step in and add his gibberish on pre-season, I see he's already limbering up in the NFL Forum. I have nothing against him, in fact I like the guy but the last two seasons have proved him wrong.

If people think they have an edge, good luck to them, but to come on here giving the impression its money for old rope is not acceptable. Personally, I think most of the angles probably made sense years ago, but today's changes in the NFL makes injuries the main concern and that is paramount over everything else.
 

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TTinCO said:
Red, pre-season NFL is very, VERY beatable if you have the right information. In fact, it can be downright theft!

Any sport at any level is beatable if you have the right information...But how can you have the right information on an event whereby the progress will be decided during the actual game ?(this is way after you have placed your bet)

How many coaches have gone into a preseason game with the idea playing starters for the first half and ended up pulling them in the first quarter, or even playing starters in the third after noticing very poor performance and having achieved totally nothing in the first.

What information are you going to use to handicap 3rd string, 4th string even 5th string running backs? How do you measure the effectiveness of vanilla offense? how do you gauge, interest or urgency in a game? I know my local team, the titans, only care about the first half, even the fans only care about the score at the end of the first, the rest is just so we can see what our new prospects can do and guys fighting for positions on roster or even practice squads.

Dont get me wrong Ttinco may be you are that 1 out of 10,000 individuals that profit from the preseason games. But i am just not the kind or person who likes to gamble on any situation where there are so many intangibles and variables that make it impossible to pick a winner. (professionals at sports gambling dont engage in that kind of thing.)


BTW...I hope you will post your pre season plays in a few months to test this pre season theory and to help out those rx members who cant seem to pick a winner in preseason.
 

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Preseason games should not be ignored, they can be middled like any other game.



redpimp said:
Show me some one who advises people to even waste one grey cell contemplating betting on NFL preseason games and i will show you and idiot who has never made a dime gambling on anything!!!!!!
How dumb can any one be to seriously even start giving out advice on betting on preseason NFL???? pre-Fucqing-season!!!!! are you kidding me?

Preseason games are meaningless contests that cant even be properly handicapped and i dont care if you claim to have an irish midget who tells you the winner when you pull his big toe really hard.

I dont care who you are but you have to be a complete baffoon to even suggest that i should pay any one to tell me who to bet on in a meaningless preseason game!!!!
 

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nimue77 said:
Preseason games should not be ignored, they can be middled like any other game.
..

Lets simply resolve this by putting your money where your mouth is.

If you believe Preseason NFL is easy money, especially with middling well i am offering $200 to you.

Post your NFL preseason picks and if you come out at at 55% with positive units (i must stress your units have to be in the positive) i will send you 200
for proving me wrong and shutting me up for good on the subject.
 

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55%? Units? I don't play that way. I'm not saying preseaon NFL is great or anything, but there is no reason to ignore it. I don't post "picks" as I very rarely make a "pick" on anything.

p.s. I don't want your money, though it would be like taking candy from a baby. I'm sure you need it more than I do.

redpimp said:
..

Lets simply resolve this by putting your money where your mouth is.

If you believe Preseason NFL is easy money, especially with middling well i am offering $200 to you.

Post your NFL preseason picks and if you come out at at 55% with positive units (i must stress your units have to be in the positive) i will send you 200
for proving me wrong and shutting me up for good on the subject.
 

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redpimp

out of 14 years 54% was my worst year in nflx

that was last season

over the last 5 year posting here I have hit 67% preseason

no I dont sell picks anymore. have not for 7 years

I have won millions

and smart people here have made a ton

fezzik
no myth I only bet football and hoops but for the season and for the year I bust 60% on my reg plays. I think 14 years is long term

I post here to try to help people win peroid

but sometimes I wonder why

:lolBIG:

panther
 

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Great job Panther!! Just wondering what your starting bankroll was when you begun? Did you bankroll yourself? If you don't mind. Thanks
 

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winbet said:
How come he's selling picks and not making millions and millions, considering you say its a great record and would make more money than you would know what to do with.

i doubt you'll get an answer...
 

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nimue77 said:
55%? Units? I don't play that way. I'm not saying preseaon NFL is great or anything, but there is no reason to ignore it. I don't post "picks" as I very rarely make a "pick" on anything.

p.s. I don't want your money, though it would be like taking candy from a baby. I'm sure you need it more than I do.

well then this conversation is over!

good luck to all those who bet on NFL pre-season games!!!
 

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moon

I started betting serious 14 years ago. before that I got my ass kicked for three years at 25 and 50 a game

I told myself I had to put the time and work into it and win or I had to quit.

I started out at 100 a game.I increased every year. took me 5 years to get up to a dime unit play.I fine tuned my capping and relized that esp in football that I played more games for action than I should. but hey still making good money so I added my 5 unit plays. 5 times the money of a reg. I still get my action on reg plays but the cream of the crop games make big money.I may have 3 in a week or may be 3 weeks between them. no need to press Iam making money on my regs

if you are able to build your bank roll and not have to spend your profit you can do the same thing.you can't get butt wild and have to pratice good money mang. once your happy with your bet size and its 1% or less of your bank size start harvesting the profits

I started with 3000

as always

good luck

panther
 

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rob

killed

won the nfl contest pick four just under 65%

hit 60% in college football

5 unit plays for the year 34-10

love getting killed like that

panther
 

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Just giving you a hard time Panther


For those who didnt see. .

Congrats to Panther for taking the Title :suomi:of the innaugural Pick 4 Contest, also to the runner-ups Criscol and The MD Kid....


Panther...................42-24-2.......(+15.6) * Champion JMan/Pinny Contest

Chriscol...................40-25-3.......(+12.5) ** Runner-up

MD Kid.....................40-26-2.......(+11.4) ** 3rd place
 

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