system plays for friday

well yesterday didnt go to well with the top dog plays: 3-7 (-3.07 units)

today ill simply be playing the home dogs, moneylines for dogs and runlines for favorites, pretty simple concept.. simply getting home teams at plus juice, while flat betting.. 45 games between now and monday, lets see how we do..

29 day total for home dog sytem: 182-198 (+51.61 units), on 1 unit plays only.

any ?? feel free to ask, ill be popping in and out all weekend..

thx to you guys for the positive comments yesterday, much appreciated.. those are some of the nice things this forum brings.. plenty of good cappers here also, enjoy them and make some money this weekend.. along with having a safe and happy 4th..

also on a side note, ill be playing exactly 1.5% of bankroll on these plays, im very comfortable with that number, for me 1% is too conservative and 2% is too risky, 1.5% fits just fine..

SSI,

Sorry to hear about cancer striking your family, I think we all have someone we know struck down by cancer, it's tough.

I bet you're glad you scrapped the sweep system while it was still plus money, like Choptalk said yesterday there have been quite a few sweeps lately.

I like your new system(s), plus money is always good.

Continued success to you and your investors, hope you have a great weekend.



:drink:

thx man, yeah the sweeps thing was good for a short while, first of the year is probably going to be the best for that.. anything that has to do with the "martingale" approach, raises a caution flag..

as for my investors, things are going really well.. since that undertaking, the p/l page looks like this:

home team system: (+12.5 units)
top dog plays: 3-7 (-3.07 units)
college ws dogs: 8-7 (+6.59)
totals: 1-2 (-1.20 units)
overall: (+14.82 units) at $200 each (+$2964), not bad for 3 weeks..

raising the stakes today, to reflect 1.5% plays on a $22,964 bankroll and will adjust this daily (using a little kelly criterion)..

hope it goes fairly well, good little bit on the line today, around half of bankroll offshore, rest sitting in cash..

SSI, I like the premise of the basic system. I usually will lay 1 1/2 runs to get the higher payoff. How can the system be improved? It is doing great so tinkering with it may mean less profit. One way to work on it is when should the laying of 1 run be used instead of the 1 1/2 line. I am always tempted to lay the 1 in low lined totals. Also with teams that don't score many runs(below league average) or have shown a tendancy to play one run games. I think it still comes down to value. If I can get a good -1 1/2 line I will lay it no matter what, but I still think the -1 line should be used also. Even on big dogs I have taken the +1 run in a few cases. Maybe the MATHPROF can chime in with his modification or give us a hint. SSI, you are a class act.

SSI,

Ditto, & happy 4th, many thanks for all your help/plays.. k:

not really going to try and improve, simply going to stick with it.. 4 straight losing days had me a little shakened..

i think when playing mechanical systems, you have to play it (as designed) and not alter from it, once you alter it, it no longer is a mechanical system.. it then is, a form of handicapping -- using a betting method....

Handicapping vs. Mechanical Systems, the debates and arguments "for and against", are endless...

I like playing this "Home Team System" because it cuts down on the amount of time that i spend doing this, i can simply pull the card up and plug in my teams. Handicapping takes a while to do....... coming into today, ive played for the most part (all but yesterday) 380 plays, a record of 182-198 is not that impressive, however when you look at the profit on it (+51.61 units), thats staggering---considering its all risking only 1 unit..

If i tinker with laying the different runs, then ill be compromising the way that i drew this up, i drew this up.. to Play ML (even +1.00) first, then to lay the (-1.5 runs with the larger payout next).. and then finally ill lay (-2.5 runs) if needed to get the payout, ive got 4 of those today (minn/boston/stl/sd), and as always im thinking (just win 2 of the 4)......

what people dont consider and really realize is, the Huge payouts, they can make up for a lot of losses... when people quote me figures of one run losses, that seems to get lost in the conversations..

SSI, you're right. The higher payoffs are needed to make up for when a road team wins. The more higher %age of wins are needed if you get the lower juice. I am loking at the Det.-NYY game right now and I see a +163 ML on Det. and a run line +1 +127 on the Tigers. Like we said a while back there is no right or wrong answer but I would like to know if one is a better bet than the other based on those figures.

thats a tough call, its your choice,, id choose the ML with the higher payout but if yanks win by one, then you will lose your push... also maybe a case for detroit-1.5 with a huge payout,, im on ML with detroit tonight...