Tor/Boston OVER (umpire alert to boot)

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Steam moving to the UNDER, but I'm on the OVER heavy.

Maybe people think lefty vs. lefty low scoring in Boston? Maybe people thing Wells will shut down Toronto? Toronto may not be the best offensive road team if you look at entire season, but last 2 road games they've scored 27 runs. Wells isn't the Wells of old. He's given up 20 hits in L2 starts lasting 5.0 IP each.

On top of that, Boston offense gets an overrated Chacin. Chacin's 3.40 ERA is way overstated. First of all, his ERA is 5.68 L3 with a poor 1.74 WHIP. Here's why his ERA is overstated- his 5 of the teams in his L6 starts are all at the bottom of the league in scoring offense!

Chacin's L4 starts went OVER. Wells L2 starts went OVER.

But here's the kicker everyone is missing-- Larry Poncino is behind the plate! Poncino is 7-2 OVER. In 2004 he was 19-12 O/U. WIth the way Toronto offense has been going, and Boston offensive "potential" vs. overrated Chacin that they are seeing for a second time... I see an easy OVER by the 6th or 7th inning here.

And you get dog money to boot!
 

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I would bet the over in the first 5 innings. chacin seems to give up runs early in the game on a regular basis.
 

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I have O10 +105 for 4 dimes.

I just don't get the under steam unless there are multiple starters out or something. I just don't see the 4-hitter type of performance from Wells that some Boston fans are expecting. Wells is as old as Johnson and we've seen Johnson go downhill. Wells's 16 inning scoreless streak perhaps what has all the under action, but last 2 starts he only lasted the minimum 5 innings.

In Wells last start he said he had to fight for every out, every pitch. It was that taxing.

This dude is getting old!! He's over the hill and he even said he needs the offense to score for him, and they've averaged 7.4 rpg L11 starts for Wells with 22 runs in L2 starts.

On the other side you have an overrated Chacin. This Boston offense, despite current mild slump, is no Nats, Brewers, Rockets, or Cubbies team. Chacin only lasted 2.1 IP vs. Mil and this was the first time they saw him. Boston is seeing him for second time. Young pitchers tend to get killed the 2nd go round.

I also like trends in addition to fundamental analysis: so I look at Chacin over trend, Wells over trend, Toronto over trend, Boston over trend, umpire over trend, and they all point to another over.

Oh, did I mention the OVER umpire? Schweet! :suomi:
 

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Anyone see late line movement on the total?

I put 4 dimes at Pinny then went to the Nugget (Reno) to put another 2 dimes in cash. Board had it -105 which is typical retail but I wanted to get more action on it this was my only out without waiting on a Neteller withdrawal.... when he run it up it went up as -115. Ugh, oh well, winner is a winner but that's 20c I had to pay for that 2 dimes.

On this one heavy, GLTA!! :103631605
 

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