On the surface everyone sees an even pitching matchup with two relievers-turned-starters (at least for this season, Tejeda is a rookie while Sosa used to be a starter with TB) with almost identical ERA, OBP, etc. Phils some advantage at home, but Braves hot while Phils not despite win yesterday, making for no advantage.
However, here is the x-factor/angle-- Tejeda was very erratic last time. While he only gave up 3H, 2ER in 4.0 IP, he had lots of high pitch AB's and was all over the place. He walked 5 and should've walked a lot more but Mets hitters were not patient letting him off the hook.
Now, here's the key... when looking at relievers-turned-starters, consistency is the most important factor. Sosa has had very consistent numbers in terms of H, ER, OBP, BB, and # of pitches per inning & per game. The hardest thing for a reliever-turned-starter to do is to make game-to-game adjustments. The inconsistency of one game usually lasts a several games before the adjustments are effective. Add to that Tejeda is a rookie.
This is a subjective angle and I don't have tech stats to back this up, but these are the types of subjective angles I make bank with. I prefer to avoid the typical "must win" or "home game" or "facing former team" type of subjective analysis and focus my subjective analysis on the mechanics of the game.
Atl +130 is good value here.
P.S. For those of you thinking "National TV/home game" makes a difference, consider that the most pressure will be on Tejada after a poor outing last game where he was erratic; he is a reliever-turned-starter; and he's a rookie with only 30.2 IP of major league experience!
However, here is the x-factor/angle-- Tejeda was very erratic last time. While he only gave up 3H, 2ER in 4.0 IP, he had lots of high pitch AB's and was all over the place. He walked 5 and should've walked a lot more but Mets hitters were not patient letting him off the hook.
Now, here's the key... when looking at relievers-turned-starters, consistency is the most important factor. Sosa has had very consistent numbers in terms of H, ER, OBP, BB, and # of pitches per inning & per game. The hardest thing for a reliever-turned-starter to do is to make game-to-game adjustments. The inconsistency of one game usually lasts a several games before the adjustments are effective. Add to that Tejeda is a rookie.
This is a subjective angle and I don't have tech stats to back this up, but these are the types of subjective angles I make bank with. I prefer to avoid the typical "must win" or "home game" or "facing former team" type of subjective analysis and focus my subjective analysis on the mechanics of the game.
Atl +130 is good value here.
P.S. For those of you thinking "National TV/home game" makes a difference, consider that the most pressure will be on Tejada after a poor outing last game where he was erratic; he is a reliever-turned-starter; and he's a rookie with only 30.2 IP of major league experience!
hno: 
arty:
