Tanyon Sturtze makes his first start of the season. These reliever-turned-starter are an over bettor's dream when the matchup is right. Today we get the always highly charged, high scoring Bal/NYY rivalry. Not only should Baltimore's potent offense get 4-5 runs off Sturtze, but a reliever starting means more Yankee bullpen early and often.
Chen had a toe problem and skipped his last start (Baltimore said due to rain delay but Chen was going to skip it anyways with toe problem). Chen's problem throughout his careear, especially prior to joining Baltimore when he was a huge over magnet, was that he was inconsistent start-to-start. Toe issues, skipping starts, pitching July 4 at Yankee stadium is a recipe for the typical Chen erratic pitching. Yankees see Chen for the third time this year.
Yankees offense a slight worry, but back home + day game Yankees offense will score at least 4 runs vs. lefty Chen. Yankees average 5.7 rpg vs. lefties and 6.8 rpg vs. lefties at home day game. Yankees offense frustrating to "rely on" these days, but consider:
- first game of last 2 home stands returning from road trip Yankees scored 9 and 12 runs.
- Yankees have scored < 4 runs in only 5 of L26 home games (all home games since 5/1).
If Yankees score 4+ this will go over. And if you've followed Bal/NYY games, these teams have an uncanny tendency to score back & forth. We'll gladly take at least 5 runs per team. With Sturtze and Chen in this spot, no problem.
Easy over.
Chen had a toe problem and skipped his last start (Baltimore said due to rain delay but Chen was going to skip it anyways with toe problem). Chen's problem throughout his careear, especially prior to joining Baltimore when he was a huge over magnet, was that he was inconsistent start-to-start. Toe issues, skipping starts, pitching July 4 at Yankee stadium is a recipe for the typical Chen erratic pitching. Yankees see Chen for the third time this year.
Yankees offense a slight worry, but back home + day game Yankees offense will score at least 4 runs vs. lefty Chen. Yankees average 5.7 rpg vs. lefties and 6.8 rpg vs. lefties at home day game. Yankees offense frustrating to "rely on" these days, but consider:
- first game of last 2 home stands returning from road trip Yankees scored 9 and 12 runs.
- Yankees have scored < 4 runs in only 5 of L26 home games (all home games since 5/1).
If Yankees score 4+ this will go over. And if you've followed Bal/NYY games, these teams have an uncanny tendency to score back & forth. We'll gladly take at least 5 runs per team. With Sturtze and Chen in this spot, no problem.
Easy over.
arty: 
