A 100 Play Test to Monitor

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SSI

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Ok, im going to monitor my current Totals System over 100 plays, i have an expected win % of 58% as my Goal.. Im not trying to sell anything or BS anyone, my only goal is to make money for myself, if someone learns something or is helped along the way (thats fine). I currently have myself and 3 other investors to answer to.. I developed this system over the weekend and put it into play sunday night, with the last game on the board. Here are the plays, and we will follow them over 100 and see the results, i will be flat betting them for 1 unit, which to me is 1.5% of my bankroll (amount is irrelevant) as everyone is different..

1. Lad/Az over 8.5. winner
2. Wash/mets under 8.5 winner
3. hou/sd under 8. winner
4. sf/cinn over 9.5 winner
5. fla/mil under 8 winner
6. stl/az over 8.5 winner
7. lad/col over 12 loser
8. ny/balt over 10 winner
9. det/clev under 9 loser. G1 of DH
10. bos/tex over 11 (push and not counted)
10. laa/minn under 8.5 loser
11. clev/det under 9.5 winner
12. ny/balt over 9 winner (did not play but counts in record)

thats 9-3 going into tonights action... these plays tonight have been turned in and played at pinny now...

13. lad/col over 11.5
14. det/cle under 9
15. bos/tex over 10.5
16. laa/minn under 9
17. wash/mets under 7
18. fla/mil under 7.5
19. hou/sd under 10
20. stl/az over 10.5
21. cinn/sf over 9.5

Like i said, im here on this forum to make money if possible, if someone gets helped in the process, thats great, posted records mean nothing to me personally... Lets just see how it goes.. if nothing else, another learning experience for me..
 

For G-Baby
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You're sick with the systems man. Good luck with this one. Keep it updated.
 

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Just a reminder but in the a.l. the first 3 days after the all-star game the unders have dominated. 3 yr history. something to do with rytrhem. nl with the low numbers is not as much of an issue. regards heart222
 

SSI

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still looks pretty good, 7-3 on the day.. 15-6 thru the first 21..

bp, ill try and answer that a little later, its 4 am now and ive got to start my 1/2 day or work....
 

SSI

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2nd half totals: 15-6 (+8.72 units)

plays for wednesday:

22. laa/minn under 8 (-1.25)
23. cle/det under 8.5 (-1.11)
24. bos/tex over 10.5 (-1.21)
25. fla/mil under 7.5 (-1.06)
26. wash/mets under 7.5 (-1.19)
27. hou/sd under 7.5 (-1.20)
28. az/stl over 8.5 (-1.05)
29. lad/col over 11.5 (+1.15)
30. sf/cinn over 9.5 (-1.15)

all played either at pinny or oly for 1 unit, and yes ever so often oly has a better line..

bp, the selection process that i use, is a complicated one that i developed over the weekend. it took me several hours to lay out the formula.. what im doing is rating each series with a numerical value.. for ratings of 1-10, i play them over, ratings 11-20 are neutral and considered no plays, ratings of 21-31 are played as unders.. then im simply flat betting each game of the series, in the appropriate manner...

as for how i get the ratings, its a lengthy complicated formula, that id rather not discuss at this time.. lets see how the 100 plays go and maybe then it will be worth discussing.. goal is still 58 winners out of the 100 plays..
 

SIG

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Good Luck....I'll be watching to see how you do
 

SSI

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Luck (and i believe it really relates here), is where Preperation meets Opportunity..

a wise man once told me, "If you can pick 55 winners out of every 100 games, eventually--you wont have to hit a lick at a snake (southern saying)...
 

SSI

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looking like a disaster in the making tonight, 0-5 (with 4 more pending).. i would not doubt that someone tailed this for the first time tonight, seems to always happen that way..

on a side note, if you were Martingaling this same system, it would be 9-0 with only the dodgers/col over 11.5 pending, however if it were to lose, you would drop a minimum 7 units on the series.. just keeping a running side notation of this, if the game goes over, it would be 10-0 (+10 units)..

no sooner than i type that, delucci homers again for texas, now we have a win. 1-5 (with 3 pending)..
 

SSI

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horrible night 2-7 (-5.86), now 17-13 (+2.86 units)

plays for thurs:

31.fla/mil under 8.5 (-1.20)
32. wash/mets under 8 (-1.03)

will add remaining card later today (pressed for time now), new series' in the AL tonight..
 

SSI

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17-13 (+2.86 units)



thursdays entire card:

31. mil/fla under 8.5 (-1.20)

32. mets/wash under 8 (-1.03)

33. lad/col over 11.5 (-1.20)

34. sd/hou under 9.5 (-1.05)

35. stl/az over 10.5 (-1.14)

36. sf/cinn over 9 (-1.15)

37. bos/balt over 10 (-1.05)

38. tb/det over 9.5 (+1.01)

39. sea/laa under 8.5 (-1.13)

rough night last night, lets see how it goes through sunday (then all star break occurs)..

after todays games, ill update but may not update the entire weekend.. plays for friday-sunday will be....

bos/balt (over the total)

tb/det (over the total)

sea/laa (under the total)

NL series will be:

mets/pitt (under the total)

cubs/fla (under the total)

mil/atl (under the total)

cinn/az (over the total)

stl/sf (over the total)

thats 5 NL series and 3 AL series, so there will be 24 games from friday-sun. this will give us 63 games to look at until the break...

on a side note, Martingaling these in the (1-2-4 format), would have yeilded a 10-0 (+10..00 units) system result.. Im running a simaltaneous test of this as well...
 

Mighty Moe
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SSI, You are sick with the systems! They do interest me as well but I don't have the time to do the work that would be necessary. I did track yesterday's home team system and the way I would have played it (Hous $ and Wh Sx only -2 for less money), it was 6-7 for a +1.9 units. I figured you would have done Houston -1.5 and the Sox at -2.5 for the value? That ended up 5-8 and +.39 units. Just thought you'd want to know. I didn't play 'em but I did stick with Winning Systems, who is DA MAN and won both EZ! I sure needed it!
 

SSI

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thx moe, much appreciated, if you could track it thru sunday, that would be great...
 

Mighty Moe
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SSI, Will do! And just so you know I did NOT play the new over/under system. I didn't want to jinx it like the other! :lolBIG:
 

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SSI i know you arent playing this system any more but shoot, if it went 10-0 on prog. i'll take my chances of finishing it off since there are fewer plays ..

so todays plays would be:
Florida under 7
Houston under 8
AZ over 10.5
SF over 8.5
Boston over 10 (.5)

all of these lost yesterday and the day before .. this is the 3rd and final set of the progression correct?
 

SSI

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no,,, totally wrong,,, if your playing a progression,, the system would be 11-0 (counting the det/tb win last night).. the rest would have ended earlier and starting tonight new ones..

tonights card would look like this..

bos/bal over (last night was a rain shortened one that pushes totals.. game 1.
mets/pitt under game 1
cubs/fla under game 1
mil/atl under game 1
cinn/az over game 1
sf/stl over game 1

sea/laa under game 2..

the system in this manner would be 11-0, with these plays pending..
 

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damn .. good thing i didnt play until you posted and proved my ass totally wrong lol
 

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