Cin/SF OVER 16 runs tonight! (wind alert)

dottom · Jul 5, 2005

A lot of typical steam is on the Cin/SF under, with the usual Pac Bell Park, foggy evening game, and umpire Schrieber has gone under 8-of-10, 9-of-12.

However, what people don't realize is Schrieber is really an OVER umpire. He averaged 12.15 rpg in 2004 with a 25-8 O/U record!

Both bullpens are spent after yesterday's outing.

But perhaps the most important factor is the center field flags at Pac Bell Park are blowing out at 20mph! Covers reported 17-mph, but trust me, it's gusting around 26mph right now. Any medium fly ball will carry a long ways today. This will play like Wrigley with the wind blowing out.

And Milton & Lowry aren't world beaters by any means. Lowry's L5 starts went over. Milton's gone over 10-of-L12.

With both pitchers being lefties, you'll see a ton of righties and wind blowing out carries dead center and left-center. Any hitter making contact tonight will homer.

I predict 6 HR's.

AC · Jul 6, 2005

2 innings left

all we need is one solo shot

lets bring this one home

AC

tenman · Jul 6, 2005

Jr. comes through... run scoring double :103631605

ZZZSpeedster · Jul 6, 2005

so far its over by a run

over 16 is a little high

ppeter · Jul 6, 2005

That was nerve wracking, but a nice win. Thanks for the heads up.

Steelers1 · Jul 6, 2005

I played the game on your info and happy to cash but the wind if there was any had nothing to do with it hitting the over. In fact it was a bit nerve racking having 6 runs scored in the first 1 1/2 innings and then having to eeeck it out in the 9th!

I do appreciate your sharing the info with the forum. Take care

dottom · Jul 6, 2005

"16" was hyperbole, obviously.

Even without the wind factor, I'd still take the over based on the other items I mentioned. Wind alert was posted an hour before game time. By the 6th inning the flags were still. That's SF for you, but the wind produced

If you were at the ballpark like me, the wind died down to about 10mph after the 3rd inning. Did you watch the first 2 HR's go out, and it was 5 runs scored after only 6-outs were made? There was also the Pena and Dunn very long foul balls that went 400+ feet but were foul. Lots of other opportunities to score runs that didn't come through, including the would-be triple Tucker ran down with a man on, but regardless we still won by 1.5 runs.

Also if you followed pitch-by-pitch, Milton had a high # of popups to the outer infield edge. That's unusual for Milton (typical fly ball pitcher) and wind factor obviously only helps when the ball is in the air. Lowry also had a ton of ground outs.

Consider it this way- if it wasn't for the wind aided 5-runs (2 HR's) after 6-outs were made, it would not have gone over. It's a winner, and I'm happy as a clam. :smoker2:

Steelers1 · Jul 6, 2005

A win is a win no matter how you get it. My only point was it did not seem that the wind was a factor.

Again, I appreciate any info you can provide to help the forum out!

I picked up over 1,100 tonight despite having the marlins and phillies. Fortunately I put a nice sum on the Cin/SF over and also had St.L and Houston (ML & RL)!
I don't recommend playing parlays but I put in a 5 teamer and hit everything but the damn devil rays. I risked only 25 that would have returned me over 1,300!

Take care and GL!

dottom · Jul 6, 2005

Nice night for you, too bad TB didn't come through.

For my plays I follow a philosophy of "multiple angles". Sometimes I may the typical "value play" but usually I like to see multiple angles working for me, such as:

- starting pitcher angle
- bullpen angle
- offense/defense angle
- umpire angle
- venue/weather angle

This way if one thing doesn't work for you the other angles can come through. For example, I expected a lot more flyballs today then we received, and of course didn't know the wind would die down so quickly. Miton did not generate many fly ball outs past the infield as he usually does - 12 flyball outs but 6 of them were to very shallow, jam shot type pop-ups.... Lowry getting an usual high # of ground ball outs - only 3 fly ball outs for Lowry.