This is BRUTAL. I faded Lima and is 8.0 ERA and he is shutting down the Twinkies. I backed Bart Colon and his 2.8 ERA with full force, and both have peformed EXACTLY opposite to expectations. Is baseball really about fading past statistics, with the expectation of regressing to the norm? IE the "due factor?" If not that, how was I supposed to predict both would pitch opposite most recent form?
ppeter said:
While it is tough to predict how a certain pitcher will perform, it is very easy to predict whether or not you will make money in the long haul betting heavy favorites. That is a big no/no.
Anything over -170 in baseball is almost never worthwhile (there are certain spots where there is value...but they are rare).
Sorry to hear about your plays.
Good luck.
