What determines the increase in bet size from game to another? I know as bankroll increases size increases. However what makes a game a 1 unit-2 unit or 4 unit play. I see this with ace-ace in football and lots of cappers in other sports. Is it something in the matchups that you see or if you have say 6 variables do they each get a rating and the combined number is what generates the increase? Just curious. Any thoughts would be appreciated. heart 222
At least from my standpoint, and most here will likely agree, a unit is a percentage of your account, thus making an account 100 "units" to begin the season with. The difference between a 1 unit wager, and say, a 4 unit wager, is due to the comfort of the wager. One may argue then, that you should only wager on the games in which are viewed as the ones you'd drop the highest unit amount you're comfortable with gambling on, but Bucsfan, for example, has made a killing slowly but surely on 1 and 2 unit plays. The higher level of uncertainty a capper has on a game, the fewer units wagered. For the most part you've got it right on the head, but I'd ask the specific capper in question his opinions before assuming that's how he/she does it.
I'm no expert but from what I've read from Fezzik you should adjust your bet size to your perceived advantage.
Let me give a few examples to try and demonstrate:
Say you come across some guy that is going to flip a standard coin and if you win he will pay you 1.01$ and if you lose you lose a 1.00$ for whatever amount you want to flip. You wil have a very slight edge on that guy for each flip but you wouldn't want to wager but a very very small % of your total bankroll to not run the risk of getting ruined. It may take 500-1000 flips before you start to show a profit becasue your edge is so small.
Now lets say that same guy is going to pay you 2.00$ if you win and if you lose you will pay him 1.00$. Now you would want to bet a lot more than in the first example. Your only concern is that you don't want to go bust, so you need to figure out a % to wager on each flip where you won't run a risk of being ruined but are able to win the most you can. You are gonna own that guy after about 100 flips.
I'm not very smart but that is about the best example that I can come up with to explain things without getting too complicated. Same thing with betting on sports. The problem is you have to be very skilled and have a deep knowledge to be able to accurately determine edge. I don't have this skill and I don't know anybody personaly who does.
Again I'm a layman on the subject but that is how I interpret.
Any experts please feel free to change/correct anything I might have misstated.
Let me give a few examples to try and demonstrate:
Say you come across some guy that is going to flip a standard coin and if you win he will pay you 1.01$ and if you lose you lose a 1.00$ for whatever amount you want to flip. You wil have a very slight edge on that guy for each flip but you wouldn't want to wager but a very very small % of your total bankroll to not run the risk of getting ruined. It may take 500-1000 flips before you start to show a profit becasue your edge is so small.
Now lets say that same guy is going to pay you 2.00$ if you win and if you lose you will pay him 1.00$. Now you would want to bet a lot more than in the first example. Your only concern is that you don't want to go bust, so you need to figure out a % to wager on each flip where you won't run a risk of being ruined but are able to win the most you can. You are gonna own that guy after about 100 flips.
I'm not very smart but that is about the best example that I can come up with to explain things without getting too complicated. Same thing with betting on sports. The problem is you have to be very skilled and have a deep knowledge to be able to accurately determine edge. I don't have this skill and I don't know anybody personaly who does.
Again I'm a layman on the subject but that is how I interpret.
Any experts please feel free to change/correct anything I might have misstated.
Agree with Fezzik - percieved advantage is the way to go as long as you are confident in your perception then staking should be a modified kelly. I bet kelly/3 modified by grade of horse race. This works well but i don't use kelly for anything less than 2/1 - it is too volatile so for sports i'm not sure whether it is the way to go - horses definitely!
I think most people would say that unless you KNOW what you are doing, you should be betting flat, maybe 1 or 2% of bankroll per play.
Bets should be sized based on advatage, but it is extremely difficult to know for sure what your edge is in most situation
IMO people betting some 20 unit plays and some 1 unit plays are clowns. I can't really see many situtations where a bet is even more than twice as good as another one, particularly in major sports against vanilla lines
Bets should be sized based on advatage, but it is extremely difficult to know for sure what your edge is in most situation
IMO people betting some 20 unit plays and some 1 unit plays are clowns. I can't really see many situtations where a bet is even more than twice as good as another one, particularly in major sports against vanilla lines
drunkguy said:
The problem with most gamblers is that they tend to think in such weird ways.
for example, i know this guy who is some what good at playing around with his
units, playing 1 unit games some times or others laying 15 units and so on and mostly wins enough money. He does not gamble full time like i do and has a square job and plays with a smaller bank roll than i have. But i would be totally dumb to assume that if i adopted his method of play that i too would reap similar rewards.
My point is, some people take one sample out of a bag of millions and assume that they can duplicate that guys performance or that it even means that following the sample is something they too should do.
A simple rule of thumb is, if you adjust your betting units erracticly and play uneven units you will end up in the poor house...(hey if you are in the very small percentage of people who suceed doing that, then more power to you. But dont try to convince average joes that this is something they should even mess with)
To me a single unit is large enough so that i can afford to lose it, without having to chase it, sweat it, dream about it, or even have to hate sports center because of it!!!! But its also large enough to put a big smile on my face and may be the occassional hard on when i win.
Ps.. I lose about 60-70% of the games where i am 100% sure i know the outcome....If it wasnt for winning a similar percentage of games i am moderately sure about, i would be in the poor house right now!!!
thanks for the thoughts. Iguess my question is why does a guy like steele have 3 star 4 star and 5 star picks. Are they supposed to be bet more or stronger picks based on something?
This is not for a discussion of steele who i like and have used for years but what makes a pick a 3 star a game of the month etc? I assume stronger games means bet more? thanks again.
This is not for a discussion of steele who i like and have used for years but what makes a pick a 3 star a game of the month etc? I assume stronger games means bet more? thanks again.
Steele rates his plays from 1-5*. He thinks you should play whatever percent of your bankroll on those selections. 3* he says 3% of your roll. 5* then play 5% of your roll. It's not a bad system because he only touts football and there aren't that many plays compared to the other sports so your chances of going broke in a season are slim.
heart222 said:
There are many factors that can make one play stronger then another. One such factor can be perceived value in the line. The greater the difference between a handicappers line and the current line could, along with other factors, upgrade or downgrade a particular play. In the case of Steele, it might reduce a 4* play to a 3* play for example. As for the "Game of the Week, Month, Year" etc., those are strictly marketing tools used by the various sports services to sell their product. Take notice and you will see that early in the year, GOW and GOM are predominant but as the season draws near conclusion both in college and pro, the GOY is released. Nothing special about one play over the other in those cases, just the usual season long progression of selling the plays.
