Crazy pool at Calder...Top horse 6 figs, 2nd choice 5 dimes...

Needless to say going off at a bridgejumping 1/9.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 bgColor=#f0f1f5 border=5><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffe373><TD align=left width=200 colSpan=3>Calder</TD><TD align=right>Time: </TD><TD align=right colSpan=2>6:13</TD></FONT></TR><TR bgColor=#ffe373><TD align=middle>Race</TD><TD align=middle NAME="RACE">12</TD><TD align=right colSpan=4 NAME="MTP">OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffe373><TD align=middle width=60>Runner</TD><TD align=middle width=60>M/L</TD><TD align=middle width=60>Odds</TD><TD align=middle width=80>Win </TD><TD align=middle width=80>Place </TD><TD align=middle width=80>Show </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN1">[size=-1]1[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]12[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD1">[size=-1]25[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]5407[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]1675[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]6316[/size]</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN2">[size=-1]2[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]8[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD2">[size=-1]35[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]3699[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]1162[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]6438[/size]</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN3">[size=-1]3[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]6[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD3">[size=-1]11[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]11373[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]4564[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]7998[/size]</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN4">[size=-1]4[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]6[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD4">[size=-1]10[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]12038[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]3141[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]8669[/size]</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN5">[size=-1]5[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]3/5[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD5">[size=-1]1/9[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]133721[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]45237[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]760449[/size]</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle NAME="RUN6">[size=-1]6[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]5[/size]</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff NAME="ODD6">[size=-1]18[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]7452[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]2371[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]8254[/size]</TD></TR><TR></TR><TR bgColor=#ffe373><TD align=right colSpan=3>Pool Total:</TD><TD align=right>173690</TD><TD align=right>58150</TD><TD align=right>798124</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<CENTER><TABLE bgColor=#ffe373 border=5><TBODY><TR><TD>Go to Calder Exactas, Quinellas, Doubles, Entries, Changes or Results</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>

I put $50 to show on the #4 horse, lets hope this lock is off the board.....

back to work I guess......

<TABLE class=tableResults><TBODY><TR class=tableResultsHdr><TD colSpan=2 NAME="RACE">Race:</TD><TD width=20 NAME="RACENUM">12</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="WIN">Win</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="PLACE">Place</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="SHOW">Show</TD><TD width=60></TD></TR><TR><TD width=30 NAME="1ST">1st</TD><TD width=20 NAME="1STNUM">5</TD><TD align=left width=200 NAME="1STNAME">LOST IN THE FOG</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="1STWIN">2.10</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="1STPLACE">2.10</TD><TD align=right width=60 NAME="1STSHOW">2.10</TD></TR><TR><TD NAME="2ND">2nd</TD><TD NAME="2NDNUM">1</TD><TD NAME="2NDNAME">QUREALL</TD><TD align=right NAME="2NDWIN"></TD><TD align=right NAME="2NDPLACE">2.40</TD><TD align=right NAME="2NDSHOW">2.10</TD></TR><TR><TD NAME="3RD">3rd</TD><TD NAME="3RDNUM">3</TD><TD NAME="3RDNAME">HOT SPACE</TD><TD align=right NAME="3RDWIN"></TD><TD align=right NAME="3RDPLACE"></TD><TD align=right NAME="3RDSHOW">2.10</TD></TR><TR><TD NAME="4TH">4th</TD><TD NAME="4THNUM">6</TD><TD NAME="4THNAME">CIN CIN</TD><TD align=right NAME="4THWIN"></TD><TD align=right NAME="4THPLACE"></TD><TD align=right NAME="4THSHOW"></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3 NAME="EX1">$2 Exacta</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2 NAME="EXCOMB1" COLSTART="4">5-1</TD><TD align=right NAME="EXPAY1">14.80</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3 NAME="EX2">$2 Trifecta</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2 NAME="EXCOMB2" COLSTART="4">5-1-3</TD><TD align=right NAME="EXPAY2">66.00</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3 NAME="EX3">$2 Superfecta</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2 NAME="EXCOMB3" COLSTART="4">5-1-3-6</TD><TD align=right NAME="EXPAY3">195.40</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2 NAME="REFUNDHEAD" COLSTART="3">Refunds: </TD><TD colSpan=2 NAME="REFUNDS">None</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=resSeperator width=600 ;> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I took #3 to win, into the burn barrel. Lost in the Fog is still undefeated, and close to untested. I'm impressed. New Carry Back record, 2 ticks off track record.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

How much did Calder lose on that race? That was a minus show pool for sure.

arniesarmy said:

How much did Calder lose on that race? That was a minus show pool for sure.

Click to expand...

looks like they lost about $30,000 in the show pool.

Brutal show bettors just come out of the woodwork and nail a horse like this. And this is the pools, imagine offshore.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

its not for sure a bad move to do it. Its all in the overlay.

If a guy has stats, records, or a process to determine that this wager would show a long term profit on a payout of $2.00 to win $2.10 then its worth a wager, and the amount of the wager is based on the chance of success (pretty high) and the amount of the overlay (likely pretty low). of course if you dont think its an overlay then you should FOR sure play one of the other horses to show as that ROI will be the value. Every gambler should either play the fav or another horse *(looking for a big payout) as one is an overlay for sure.

but you cant take 20% of your bankroll on a wager like this.

Remember one day Red Rhone was running at either Balmoral or Hawthorne about five years ago. Jim Curran drove it. That was when a group of Japanese bettors reportedly were bridge-jumping. All of a sudden more than $100,000 went into the show pool.

Curran parked the 1/9 shot and it finished fourth. The show prices were boxcar figures--$100 and $80 something like that. Everytime I see someone bridge-jump and I'm at the OTB, I play three or four other horses in the race to show, hoping to see something like that again.
Hasn't happened yet.

Just to push you need over 95%, 19 out of 20 still results in loss? That is where the lost rider, DQ or accident come into play. I'll try the dog. They don't make bridges jump proof.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:

Just to push you need over 95%, 19 out of 20 still results in loss? That is where the lost rider, DQ or accident come into play. I'll try the dog. They don't make bridges jump proof.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Click to expand...

Good point OF. It took me quite a while to figure it out. Too many negative factors. I am trying to figure out how these tracks absorb the minus pool hits. I think in the future you will see more tracks eliminate show wagering in certain situations.

They are taking 15% and 20% daily. They can afford a hit once in awhile. The only negative is when the bridge jumpers jump, the track still just gets 15%. But it is a fat pool.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Pinny has 20K risk limits on show betting. Get to make your dime.

from another site i belong at

Minus $160,865 show pool




<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt1 vAlign=top>This is what is wrong with racing. Lost in the fog causes a minus show pool. Guess who foots that bill in the long run? Tracks are whining, we can't make money, we need casinos, no one comes to the track... WAA, WAA. These same tracks are so concerned that 90 year old homer and gertrude can't have their 10 cent supers and quinellas and show bets. Who cares about the guy that actually churns money through the machines. While homer is filling his depends looking at his big $2.10 winner and some drunk guys are high fiving at a New York OTB because they scammed 100,000 nickles in a 6 horse race Calder is figuring how to take more money from us. Get a backbone. Dump the show bets period. If not anounce a new rule. Show bets will be refunded any time a pay out excedes the pool. Legally I suppose dumping them all together is the better route. While they are at it get rid of the dime and 50 cent bets.

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</TD></TR><TR title="Post 145460"></TR><TR><TD class=alt2 vAlign=top noWrap align=middle width=175>EdwardWilliam
Allowance

Joined: Mar 2005
Location: Algonquin, IL

Posted: 07-11-2005 01:25 PM </TD><TD class=alt2 vAlign=top><!-- message -->Damn right, Don. Personally, the whole "minimum payout" thing to me has never made any sense -- it's something that can only hurt the takeout, which in turn hurts the horsemen.

My big question: what in the hell were they thinking offering show wagering in this field in the first place? I surely hope that the horsemen still get their full cuts. They shouldn't have to pay for Calder's stupidity.

Best,
EW

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am i missing something here


there was about 750,000 in the show pool total

that is 375,000 $2 tickets

each $2 ticket wins 0.10

that is only $37,500 in payouts to the bridge jumpers as profit.

there were 2 other show horses each with about 8000 in the show pool that got 0.10

so thats another $800 in payouts (profits) to the winners of those show wagers.

there were 3 horses that did not make it in the show ticket each had about 7000 in them so a plus 21000 for the track on that

its only a 37,500 + 800 - 21000 = $17,300 the track had to pay.

well boo hoo hoo hoo they had a 21% take out in the exacta that race
(80,000 pool?), a 24% take out in the trifecta (30,000 pool?),
more take out in the late double, etc etc,


plus all the dime breakage all day long. and every other race in the past 3 weeks had no minus show pool.

In australia you get back a refund in a minus show pool situation its not a good situation. you have lots of pool manipulation with wagers going in last second if it looks like a possible show payout (the odds are listed), and being cancelled last second because why risk $1000 for nothing??? you could lose it there is an upset and break even if you get the horse in the top 3??? (its actually a wager for your horse finishing 2nd or 3rd in australia not a true show wager) but same idea.


keep the 2.10 minimum. :drink: