How do you handicap

ElmerTLee · Jul 11, 2005

Could you guys give me your daily routine, or some links to a FAQ on the best procedure to organize information to process for handicapping. I just dont know where to get started. Im at a loss on how to start learning everything I need to know about handicapping a game.

Heres what I know:
1. I know the basics of betting, spreads, money lines, etc.
2. I somewhat understand somewhat, why books move lines, based on which way the money flows.
3. Misc crap.

Help Pls. Ive searched through threads and will continue to do so.

royalfan · Jul 11, 2005

Feel, feel and more feel. I feel sorry for those that sit there and handicap all day long to grind out very small profits or in many instances losses as the books have all of the same data and I also feel sorry for those hawking the computer all day trying to grind out small scalps. Watching pitchers pitch and finding guys that are having bad luck with good stuff and that sort of thing. Watching games is easiest way to win money. Then I also just bet what I feel like that particular instance. No need for a feel bettor to have bankrolls or units or whatever else.

Fishhead · Jul 11, 2005

For the NBA, would wholeheartedly recommend you keep SCHEDULE LOGS on each and every team for a variety of reasons.

NCAA football..............watch as many games as you possibly can objectively.

NFL football..............Try to stay away from public perception on teams and go the other way.

AS YOU KNOW, SHOP FOR THE BEST LINE IN ALL SPORTS.

ElmerTLee · Jul 11, 2005

Here's the protocol Im developing for handicapping.
Getting a rotation of each game for the upcomming week, look at each game, objectively, using schedules, stats, injuries, watching all the games the previous weeks and all that crap, determine what I think the spread should be, and then shop for weak lines, using a percentage of my bankroll to bet with, and up that percentage when a line is really weak, and lessening when I think the line is semi-weak.

Fishhead · Jul 11, 2005

ElmerTLee said:
Here's the protocol Im developing for handicapping.
Getting a rotation of each game for the upcomming week, look at each game, objectively, using schedules, stats, injuries, watching all the games the previous weeks and all that crap, determine what I think the spread should be, and then shop for weak lines, using a percentage of my bankroll to bet with, and up that percentage when a line is really weak, and lessening when I think the line is semi-weak.

Not a bad strategy...............your hard work will make you very lucky. :103631605

tatehill2000 · Jul 11, 2005

Elmer,,

this is the Hardest thing to find,,,, "ONES OWN WAY" there are many successful methods in capping,,, LOL even more unsuccessful ones,,LOL scalping is one way,,, it is an insanely tedius way,,, I personally dont ever look for it but if I catch a good line on a NBA total, and Im wathcing the game and a HALFTIME line comes up and I can catch a 10 pt Middle,,then I will DEFINATELY take some off the table,,,

that technique is a really tough one,, and to be honest you need to dedicate crazy hours to be successful,,

start betting small, and NEVER CHASE!!

good luck
tater

Fishhead · Jul 11, 2005

NEVER GET TO BIG FOR YOUR OWN BRITCHES!!!

I HAVE SEEN GAMBLER AFTER GAMBLER DESTROY THEMSELVES THIS WAY.

ElmerTLee · Jul 11, 2005

Well, time is not an issue. If you guys can reasonably tell me that, if I devote 60-80 hours a week, assuming Im not a complete jackass (which may or may not be true), Ill make a ton of money, Ill do it. If that is not resonable, then its not worth my time. I do have strong background knowledge in gambling though, so that may speed up the process.

PS.
Could you guys who are pros, give me your daily routine?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jul 11, 2005

I make a big piece of paper, with one team on each half. I place a FROG right in the middle. If he wins, he jumps again, if not he is dinner. I have never had a FROG on a losing streak.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Seriously, it is a to each his own. One of the most varied skills there is. I have my own, trade secrets, but I think, information, is foremost. But bear in mind capping is just a piece of the pie. And yes, during multi sports times, 80 hour weeks are a norm for me.

ElmerTLee · Jul 11, 2005

What are some other parts of the pie?

tatehill2000 · Jul 11, 2005

Elmer,,,

I am not a pro,,, I am trying to stumble and fumble my way to that point, so I will tell you my routine,,,

(this concerns NBA only)

every night around 8ish pm I start looking at the lines that are available, as with most lines with the NBA Depending on how the team had performed the previous night will dictate "usually" which way that line will go the following day,

with the way that I Cap NBA I know every play I will make and the units from Oct 1st on,,, so for me I know the Games WAYYYYYY ahead of time, I will then Hit a line with the Lowest Juice or wait if I "feel" it will move in my favor,,

I think the 2nd hardest thing to learn when it comes to capping is this,,,
1. Never Chase
and
2. you Gotta BET the UGLY games,,,,

nothing makes your ass cheeks pucker more than having to lay a Dime on GSW against a healthy anyone,,, LOL,,, you gotta have discipline and not Deviate,,,

good luck
tater

phdinsports · Jul 11, 2005

Fishhead said:
NEVER GET TO BIG FOR YOUR OWN BRITCHES!!!

I HAVE SEEN GAMBLER AFTER GAMBLER DESTROY THEMSELVES THIS WAY.

Sooo true Fish, just look at my name (which is my email address from waaay back when I was younger and cocky)

Anyhow Elm, just enjoy the game. I only cap nfl and play poker, because I love the sport/game. If you enjoy the sport makes it much easier to follow. Money management, getting the best lines, and thinking outside the box (i.e. coming up with your own view/ranking of teams, not listening to the public) is key. Good luck.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jul 11, 2005

Money management, which has tangents or sub slices. Unit variance, distribution, where is your money, as far as allocation between books. Seasonal changes, some books offer substantial value in certain sports. Rebates, reduced vig. Half price betting.

Line movement, openers are not for the faint of heart, but are the most volatile, and offer the most value. Judgement of line movement, is it moving your way, do you wait, or get it now. Line shopping. Your ultimate goal, getting the best number and value.

Post capping. Dissecting both winners, and most importantly losers. Grade yourself objectively on each area. Was it a swing game, or a bad beat. Were you dead wrong. Did you get best price, best number, how did line move? Did you adhere to money mangement.

For me there are about 4 or 5 more slices. But that is a start. If I had one key all encompassing word it would be dedication. Good luck I'm out.

Best Wishes...oF:howdy:

I do not write books, I only read them.

golfingarkansas · Jul 11, 2005

royalfan said:
Feel, feel and more feel. I feel sorry for those that sit there and handicap all day long to grind out very small profits or in many instances losses as the books have all of the same data and I also feel sorry for those hawking the computer all day trying to grind out small scalps. Watching pitchers pitch and finding guys that are having bad luck with good stuff and that sort of thing. Watching games is easiest way to win money. Then I also just bet what I feel like that particular instance. No need for a feel bettor to have bankrolls or units or whatever else.

i agree with this post 100%

hunches, psychology (back to .500) how this team plays in this stadium, emotion

winbet · Jul 11, 2005

Elmer,

Your post reminds me of when I started out and I think the majority would agree, you go through a period of searching for some golden goose and end up not seeing the wood for the trees. Be very careful of stats, used wisely and as lightly as possible they can be a good tool, sadly many get bogged down completely over-looking more important factors.

What Royalfan says is correct, but I think that comes more with experience. The time spent has to be productive, get rid of the games that you consider no edge as soon as possible, then spend an equal time on the rest. Strangely, in the NFL, over recent years I have found it easier to consider my selected games as maximum bets, and literally come down 10,9,8 etc as negative info comes out. It doesnt seem to be as emotional as the other way round.

Railbird · Jul 12, 2005

Ive handicapped every sport out there, by far best formula is to play low key stuff and get out into the field, going to practice rounds on Wednsday for golf tournament, going to practice courts for tennis, driving down to Sandiego to watch Aztecs practice on a Tuesday afternoon, going down to Tito Ortiz gym and gather information for UFC fight, going to regional Little Leauge games, go watch exhibion games of mid major ncaa hoop teams when they are playing non board division 3 teams, asking SID's for injury information, asking ATP and PGA trainers for injury information, going into the paddock of race tracks and offer benjamins to harness drivers, going the extral mile that losers dont do is how you win.

Other way is to pick on bad linesmakers who give money away, via popularity contests, other free money is in interactives, halftimes, and in progress bets.

TTinCO · Jul 12, 2005

Railbird said:
Ive handicapped every sport out there, by far best formula is to play low key stuff and get out into the field, going to practice rounds on Wednsday for golf tournament, going to practice courts for tennis, driving down to Sandiego to watch Aztecs practice on a Tuesday afternoon, going down to Tito Ortiz gym and gather information for UFC fight, going to regional Little Leauge games, go watch exhibion games of mid major ncaa hoop teams when they are playing non board division 3 teams, asking SID's for injury information, asking ATP and PGA trainers for injury information, going into the paddock of race tracks and offer benjamins to harness drivers, going the extral mile that losers dont do is how you win.

Other way is to pick on bad linesmakers who give money away, via popularity contests, other free money is in interactives, halftimes, and in progress bets.

Rail, I'm almost certain that is the best post of yours that I've ever seen. You know a hell of a lot about the obscure\low key stuff, and that's a great place to make money. If you can really get to know some of these smaller\less popular sports, you probably know as much as-if not more than the BM......but the past posting stuff has really got to go. You've been busted & it's ruins what could have been a very informed west coast poster. If you're good, there's no need to cheat.

Railbird · Jul 12, 2005

Tinco,

Too many thread hijackers at MW to have quality posts, and half the time its moderaters highjacking the posts. I dont past post, if your referring to my China LL post 2 years ago, I was releasing sides 5 minutes past post because of the LOW LIMITS and I was Double,triple, and quad Popping. I didnt need piggybackers CRUSHING book, so book would in turn lower limits or not book.

Do you know how stupid MW looks with RETARDS like Sportman, Boston Gambler,Total Square,etc posting diaheria 24/7.

ElmerTLee · Jul 12, 2005

Thanks for hte great replies, helped out a lot. Im glad that you guys explained things to me, becuase I was under the impression, that great analysis of stats was the only way to go, and intuition was BS. I have to say that this fourmn does kick majorwagers ass.