Home team system results for 39 days

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SSI

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237-292 (+33.67 units), these are the results for 39 days.. Like alot of systems that i have tried, this one started like a house of fire.. climbling almost daily to a high of (+59.02 units), enthusiasm was running wild and i thought i had discovered the magic pill.. then reality set in and the last 2 weeks has brought me back down, dropping around 26 units can do that...

My goal now, and im starting today, is to develop something new for thursday. ive got a lot of back testing to do between now and thursday..

All things considered it was a profitable first half, around (+45 units)...

Its definately back to the drawing board for me, this week...... Im going to try and take some of the best ideas -- that ive had from various systems and combine them into one... back testing will tell me, all i need to know, as im dealing with Mechanical systems..

Ill be in and out, catch everyone thursday...
 

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SSI... Have you figured out in what area are your highest pct. of losers come from?
 

SSI

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are you talking about the Home team system? if so, i havent broken it down but it cannot be good -- taking tb/kc and the really bad teams...

this system would show a profit at around 46-47% winners, maybe 45% would do it.

at one point the record was 96-88....


Im back testing now from June 2nd, a system that uses the best team as a dog (record wise).. ML first and then RL... any thoughts on that..
 

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GL on working out your kinks, but you have still made a nice little profit.



Hookem
 

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this system would show a profit at around 46-47% winners, maybe 45% would do it.

How about eliminating those teams who don't play at.440 or .450 level to begin with??...might sound a little simple but that would at least cut the number og plays by 20% or better.
 

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SSI, followed this for a while since you posted it. Not sure how it will do in the second half. I think instead of betting every game is to cut back on the number of plays. An idea is maybe not laying 1 1/2 runs if the lined total is 7 or 7 1/2. Another is not playing teams that play alot of one run games. I have a way to figure out by taking runs scored and against for each team and then projecting how many 1 run games this team should play the rest of the year. This maybe could be used to eliminate some teams. I think you have to eliminate some games laying 1 1/2 runs with your system. Betting too many games at - 1 1/2 runs can lead to bad days such as yesterday. I still like this method, it's just finding a way to eliminate some poor plays.
 

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Look at the road team*s record last 10 on the road. If it is profitable or if it has an unusually high number of 1 run losses scratch the game. GL
 

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A couple of thoughts:
1.Wait untill the 2nd game of a series and bet on only the teams that had a system win in the first game, then in the 3rd game bet only those you bet on and lost in the 2nd game, (if any).
2.Bet the entire home team system only on the day/night after it goes 5-10 or worse and only if it's the same series.
 

SSI

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appreciate the feedback guys, and of course anyone can tinker with this concept, any way they want..

Back testing since June 2nd (the day i started with the home teams), i ran a test -- that took the better team (record wise), either on RL or ML but always at plus juice..... results were fine from June 2 thru June 30 (188-194) but after that it has had a (64-84) run.. and remember anything close to a (.500) record would be outstanding.. overall run from June 2-july 10 was.. 252-278, which was indeed better than our home team..

lots more work to be done by me..

note on martingaling, i am not against a One Time martingale but 2 times is probably suicidal (in my opinion)...
 

SSI

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OK, ive spent a good part of today researching and trying to layout out a plan for the remainder of the season..

One thing for sure, ill be playing (all Plus Juice), this is an integral part of what i want to do..

another thing, ill be playing a high number of plays, probably not all of the games but still a high number of games.. I need the larger number of plays -- so the plus juice can come into effect more..

Ill also be flat betting (100% of the time).

and no martingaling...

so a basic outline, looks like this..

1. Flat Betting (100% of the time).
2. Large number of games played.
3. Getting Plus Juice (100% of the time).
4. No Martingaling.

Now the remainder of my time, will be devoted to the determining factors on the selection of the games played and games skipped..
 

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Hi guys....

I´m european, from Portugal and last years only placed soccer. Since Dec 2004 i started to bet in USA Sports following some friend or cappers in this forum.
I choose soccer picks with knowledge of the teams, news or following some friends info.
Betting with systems it´s a new concept to me.
At this moment i knew some systems because some guys described it´s systems when they placed picks. Last days i try to analize all that i read and i´m focus in one thing......
Why you all working in systems to beat Vegas and any system was at the vegas side.
Sorry for my english, i´m really bad but i will try to explain me a little better.
All systems that i´ve talking about start with one idea and all try to find some caracteristics to produce outputs. This system play home dogs, other system play home fav, other play losers in a row, other play winners in a row..... and Vegas? Why no one system starts using Vegas work? When Vegas say that the odd will be XX or YY they have some back work.... What they do? Anyone knows how Vegas think?
My idea is..... if Vegas win.... one best system could be one system that is on Vegas side and not against.
Offcourse i havent this system.... as i said... betting with systems it´s a new concept to me but.... sometimes we have lots of work and when some people comes from a distant place sometimes that person can see some things that we cant see when we are envolving.

This is only some ideas to try to help us to think....

Thanks all guys for your excelent work here.
Aquiles
<!-- / message -->
 

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I have done this system the last few weeks too and the teams that never covered (seemed like anyway) was the home team in Washington games, White Sox, Phillies, KC, TB, SF, Seattle.

I agree on the point that laying 1.5 on a 7 total was tough. I think it worked the best in interleague matchups. Home teams much more interested in non-rivalry matchups.
 

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SSI- the team with the best record system has dropped a little over 15 units the last two days. i'll be tracking for another series or so but its been terrible.


I've been making them all dogs either moneyline or -1.5 -2 runline. they just aren't performing right now. hopefully you can save some units by reading this.
 

SSI

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thx for tracking that, i ran the test as well yesterday and your correct on your numbers.. of course over 500 games both the home teams and the best teams as dogs (both) are showing profits.. its just the bad streaks that are getting our attention..

im not playing the Best Team or the Home Team solely on thursday, im working with a modified format.. so far, im dealing with 4 things.

1. flat betting
2. large number of games (but not all of them)
3. no martingaling.
4. all Plus Juice.

the selection process is what im working on now, the above is just the criteria that im going to use..
 

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SSI, Thanks for your efforts! If you can, please let us know as you iron out your system. No system is perfect, but if you win $, it is always a good system!
 

SSI

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will do Moe, i now have my criteria and formula down, will look at games for thursday,, tomorrow... its been a tedious process but maybe i have something that is going to work LongTerm, the key word being Longterm... I have been lucky to have made some money off the previous systems and managed to not stay married to one for too long and give it back.. Im anxious for thursday and ready to try this one out for 4 days, after that its vacation time for me, not from capping but probably from forum -- as im going to spend a few days somewhere, florida (weather permitting)..

2nd half "Value System", now looks like this:

1. Flat bet 100% of time.
2. Play large # of games (but not all of them).
3. No Martingale (each day is new).
4. All Plus Juice (100% of time, no exceptions).
5. Play Value Only, based on a set of 6 different critea, in which four of the six categorites are selected.. which means, i have 6 categories, and when a team falls into 4 of them (they then become a play)..

process should take around an hour each day, to go through all the games and turn in the plays, not too bad..

will it work, guess we can find out -- starting thursday.. goal is still to hit 50% winners, the plus juice will take care of the rest...
 

Mighty Moe
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SSI, Sounds like potential! Please let us know how it goes after the first 4 days and enjoy that vacation!
 

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