SSI's System Plays for thursday (July 14th)

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

Little early with this post, but i had some time and the lines are going up for thursday right now.. Played a lot of different things in the first half of the season, overall results were pretty good..

Series Betting: (+21 units)
Home Team System: 237-292 (+33.67 units)
Top Dog System: 3-7 (-3.07 units)
Totals: (-14 units)
College WS Dogs: 8-7 (+6.59 units)

thats pretty much how i spent my first half of the season...

2nd half of the season, i plan on playing a system that i have been working on during the allstar break.. hopefully this one will have a nice successful run.. I hope to use it for the NHL season as well (yes we should have one).. Remember success for me is going to be only 50% winners, and at 47% i should still show a profit (a nice one).. Plays will be placed using this criteria.

1. Flat Bet 100% of the time.
2. Play Large # of games (but not all).
3. Plus Juice 100% of the time (no exceptions).
4. No Martingale (each day is new).
5. Play Value based on 6 things, in which a team qualifies in 4 of them.

I plan on starting out at ($100) per play: at pinny for the most part. bet will be adjusted at the (+20 unit mark) and plays will be reduced or stopped at the (-20 unit mark). Do not advocate anyone playing things, merely listing them for people interested in this sort of thing..

Ill make plays throughout the day today and tomorrow, listing final card at the end of this thread.. Hope everyone has a nice and profitable 2nd half..

edub69 · Jul 13, 2005

Thanks SSI for the information. BTW, you mentioned the other day that you were backchecking the games and lines from the first half. What resource do you use for that exercise?

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

Plays for thursday:

1. Detroit RL (+1.05)

2. Toronto RL (+1.10)

both listed at pinnacle, will add later..

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

adding:

3. Braves ML (+1.10)

4. WSOX ML (+1.15)

5. Dodgers RL (+1.83)

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

adding:

6. Cubs RL (+1.00), played this at Oly, didnt want to lay any juice, in case i wasnt around when pinny posted the RL.

jesse1111 · Jul 13, 2005

SSI-do you think just straigh betting all dogs everyday can make money? not actually turning faves into dogs, just betting true dogs?

Kruser6 · Jul 13, 2005

jesse1111 said:
SSI-do you think just straigh betting all dogs everyday can make money? not actually turning faves into dogs, just betting true dogs?

It depends. . . are you just betting every dog on the board? If you are then . . NO

If you are betting the dogs by capping them out then most definetly.

JMO though. .

SSI is the dog master.

jesse1111 · Jul 13, 2005

kruser- i was asking about all dogs. i'm terrible at baseball and am at work by the time alot of people post their plays so a decent system with minimal capping is what i'm looking for.

GBPACKERFAN · Jul 13, 2005

With ssi on Tor RL.

I will bet against TB each and every game (when i can) since they flat out STINK !!!!!

Yeah TB will win once in awhile but I'll take 2 out 3 anyday of the week. Am taking whomever TB is playing on the RL since whomever is playing TB will be -200+ all the time except for win TB is at home and you might get a -120, -130 every so often. TB rarely loses by 1 run only. :drink:

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

jess, no i dont think taking all the dogs across the board is going to be profitable, wont even show a profit... However i feel that playing some dogs and playing some fav's on RL as dogs, can be very profitable.. without saying alot, here is thursdays entire card, as my new system has it.. would be glad to discuss any of the picks..

1. detroit RL (+1.05)
2. toronto RL (+1.10)
3. Wsox ML (+1.15)
4. LAA RL (+1.21)
5. Balt RL (+1.43)
6. Tex ML (+1.36)
7. Cubs RL (+1.00)
8. Atl ML (+1.10)
9. LAD RL (+1.83)
10. Phil RL (+1.85)
11. Bos ML (+1.03)
12. Wash altRL (+1.70)

ok thats going to do it for thursday, skipped only 1 game (sd/az), some days the number of plays will be slightly less.. Bos and Tex barely made it in, but rogers at that price and bos as a homedog, were too good to pass on.. This is mostly a search in what i deem as value.. and as ive stated before my goal is a (.500) record,, if this system can produce that record -- over a large number of plays, the profits will be tremendous.. I actually think the breakeven point for this may be as low as 44-45%.. well, lets hope for a 6-6 day and anything over that is gravy... have a nice 2nd half guys..

SSI · Jul 13, 2005

here are some numbers to ponder, there are around 1000 games left in the season, maybe slightly over.. if i can only hit at a winning clip of 45%--while playing around 800 of them, this is a record of 360 wins and 440 losses, with an average payback on winners of +$1.35, the system would still show a +46 unit gain..

i actually think the payback will do a little better and maybe the system can pick a little better than 45%..

today's average payback was (+$1.32) btw...

no matter what happens, ill only be able to post thru monday's games.. then ill be in florida for several days.. still playing but not able to post..

MightyMoe · Jul 14, 2005

SSI, Good stuff! Thanks for sharing and good luck with the system! I hope it takes off strong!

SSI · Jul 14, 2005

Texas, without rogers is now a no-play.. would love to still take them but i must follow set criteria.. now leaves 11 pending plays, and we probably will now need to get 5 of the 11 to show a profit.. of course this depends on the 5..

my wash play is on the alt runline and is still a Play..

SSI's System Plays for thursday (July 14th)

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