I found this stat at the start of last years NFL, it threw up a 1-0 ATS and S/U.
Bet on a home dog of +3 or less that won S/U last week
versus an opponent that won S/U at home last week but lost ATS
Record
11-1-0 ATS and 11-1 S/U (1994-2002)
Not only have the home dogs covered by an average of +13.0 points/game, they have won 11 of 12 straight-up!
Rationale
Home dog has shown that they are capable of winning. They should be playing with confidence, especially in front of their home crowd. By setting a small line the oddsmakers are telling us that the home dog is not perceived to be as good as their opponent, but it's definitely not a mismatch. The away favorite is off a straight-up win and may not be as "hungry" to win this one. Although they won last game, they didn't cover the points which suggests they are overvalued or it could be a sign of other problems. There is a greater chance of a letdown on the road. The away favorite very likely has the better W-L record and the general public feels they should be good enough to win by a FG or more.
Given the rationale for this stat, I was thinking there should'nt be any reason not to equate it to other sports, just a matter of re-assessing the qualifying spread. Although I have not checked it out, Basketball, Rugby Union and League, College Football, and gaelic sports could fit the critera, Baseball and Soccer, more problematic.
Any suggestions or enlightenment are appreciated, it seems a waste of good reasoning just for one bet a year.
Bet on a home dog of +3 or less that won S/U last week
versus an opponent that won S/U at home last week but lost ATS
Record
11-1-0 ATS and 11-1 S/U (1994-2002)
Not only have the home dogs covered by an average of +13.0 points/game, they have won 11 of 12 straight-up!
Rationale
Home dog has shown that they are capable of winning. They should be playing with confidence, especially in front of their home crowd. By setting a small line the oddsmakers are telling us that the home dog is not perceived to be as good as their opponent, but it's definitely not a mismatch. The away favorite is off a straight-up win and may not be as "hungry" to win this one. Although they won last game, they didn't cover the points which suggests they are overvalued or it could be a sign of other problems. There is a greater chance of a letdown on the road. The away favorite very likely has the better W-L record and the general public feels they should be good enough to win by a FG or more.
Given the rationale for this stat, I was thinking there should'nt be any reason not to equate it to other sports, just a matter of re-assessing the qualifying spread. Although I have not checked it out, Basketball, Rugby Union and League, College Football, and gaelic sports could fit the critera, Baseball and Soccer, more problematic.
Any suggestions or enlightenment are appreciated, it seems a waste of good reasoning just for one bet a year.
