New System???

TomorrowsNewspaper · Jul 15, 2005

I have been fooling around with a new system the last couple of weeks that has been absolutley amazing. It involves fading the public plays when the line moves the opposite way. In other words, say The Mets are -120 and the public is betting them at a large clip (say 65% of all bets are recieved are on the mets). The line then goes to mets -118. In this case you would play the dog. Tonight this system gave

Arizona +124
Nymets -121
tampa +190
Milw -115
arizona under 7 -105
Philly over 8.5 -105

all winner and some nice dogs in the mix. It gave the american league in the allstar game and was very solid all of last week while I wasn't. I am going to post the plays each day in this post and see if the trend continues. I wouldn't recommend playing them yet but......

GameBreaker · Jul 15, 2005

hey man I trust the way you think and conceptualize betting bases, therefore, keep posting what you see and we'll see how it goes!! Thanks for contributing!

GoHogsAR · Jul 15, 2005

I've heard this suggested a few times in the couple of months I've been reading this forum. I've asked where to find out who the public is betting on and was directed to caribsports, which is a good start, but it is such a tiny piece of the action I couldn't see risking money based on those limited numbers only.

Are there more comprehensive sources of where the public money is going?

Journeyman · Jul 15, 2005

TN..I'm not following your line movement example though?

mets -120, 65% then down to -118? Can you be more specific..I have thought of something very similar...what site are you using to track the action?

nice call tonite on the big dogs BTW...

thanks TN :103631605

Journeyman · Jul 15, 2005

Are u saying 65% or higher , yet the line drops, is that what you're looking for?

TomorrowsNewspaper · Jul 15, 2005

It's more confusing to explain than it really is. Bottom line is the NUMBER of bets is greater on the Mets, but the MOJORITY OF THE MONEY is on the other side noted by the line movement. Let it ride sports has a breakdown of this information in graph form. I use it, information from a local (most important), and a few other internet sorces for my info. I have always used this information, but I have been following the graphs at letitride lately, and have been amazed.

Bentley · Jul 15, 2005

Not to intervene, and not sure if Im allowed to post the site here. If not Journeyman please delete. But SportsInsights is a great tool when looking for sharp plays or riding the fade of 65% or more when market movement goes the opposite way. Been a memeber there fro over 18 months now and no regrets. No where near the level of a DB but it works for 1 to 3 unit player like myself. The only criteria i set with the movement is to play on movement of 10 cents or more from the open for say 1.5 or 2 units. While playing 1 unit on the fade of 65% or more with little to no movement. Works much much better on sides than totals from what ive tracked. Totals seem to end up around 50% In NFL NBA. MLB has also been around 50%. CBB totals produced some nice results though. Hitting around 55% with over 220 games played thru what I tracked and have here on my notes.

Journeyman · Jul 15, 2005

NP- hopefully you can break this down and discuss further today...

maidenguy · Jul 15, 2005

I believe over at let it ride they have a service called Smart Plays, which there is a charge ,that they base their plays on what you stated.

johnskelington · Jul 15, 2005

BRILLIANT!...............(spoken like the guy in the Guinness commercial)

donho · Jul 15, 2005

I have a computer program that quantifies these plays based on line moves and betting percentages. The plays TN lists were all huge plays (in addition to the Kansas City Royals). If anyone is interested, I can provide you with more information into how the database works or even post the plays when they come up. We had a huge following during the basketball season on this system and it also seems to work in baseball fairly well.

AFLGuru · Jul 15, 2005

Definitely a Smart Play... I know a buddy that screwed around with these plays during college basketball season who did quite well for some time with them. From what it sounded like, they were working well at the beginning of the baseball season, but haven't asked since. Perhaps I should...

maidenguy · Jul 15, 2005

Donho, that sounds great, would be interested.

donho · Jul 15, 2005

You just have to be careful as the system can be very streaky. It seems like the sportsbooks reverse the lines every so often to throw a curveball to the smart money followers. For the month of July it has been phenomenal however. AFLGuru, I'm pretty sure your friend was a part of our original group earlier this year.

GameBreaker · Jul 15, 2005

AFLGuru said:
Definitely a Smart Play... I know a buddy that screwed around with these plays during college basketball season who did quite well for some time with them. From what it sounded like, they were working well at the beginning of the baseball season, but haven't asked since. Perhaps I should...

I agree, I use this type of a theory all the time during college basketball, it really worked great, but I wasn't sure if it would work for baseball. I think that the time of season is important, and right after the all star break weird things happen so I can see it being very beneficial right now.

socalhb · Jul 15, 2005

I have used this sytem as well and it works. donho is right it does have it's streaks, I have always suspected the books of manipulating the lines now and then, after a losing day I watch and wait until it starts winning again then jump back on. The most important part of this system is getting accurate information on where the public is going.

donho, where do you get your info from? I use sportsbook.com, I feel the more input we can get from other sites the better picture we can get.

Journeyman · Jul 15, 2005

thanks socal...you feel SB.com has the best info on this?

donho · Jul 15, 2005

By far the best source for this info is sportsinsights (which in itself includes the betting data from SB.com) However, it costs money for a subscription. Using just the numbers from sportsbook.com has also shown some success... Usually, if the line is going the wrong way at one book, it is going the wrong way on the other books as well. Right now, the system is showing big discrepancies in quite a few games. The Astros, Mariners, Red Sox and A's to name a few....

AC · Jul 15, 2005

donho said:
I have a computer program that quantifies these plays based on line moves and betting percentages. The plays TN lists were all huge plays (in addition to the Kansas City Royals). If anyone is interested, I can provide you with more information into how the database works or even post the plays when they come up. We had a huge following during the basketball season on this system and it also seems to work in baseball fairly well.

can you tell us how the database works and post the plays...it would be greatly appreciated.

AC

LucaBrasi · Jul 15, 2005

donho said:
We had a huge following during the basketball season on this system

Don - Let us know how this is working this upcoming hoops season.

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