What are the odds for this in poker

Majorcapper · Jul 15, 2005

I was just playing and the flop came A Q J of dimonds turn was 10 of dimonds and the river K of dimonds royal flush on the board

peteep · Jul 15, 2005

1 in 4.

JakeT. · Jul 15, 2005

peteep said:
1 in 4.

I'm not a mathematician but that sound statistically sound.

I'd say about 26.434367845%

ProPokerPlayer · Jul 15, 2005

hmmmmmmmmmm and i thought they didnt allow canadian players at bodog.................lol

TheNuts · Jul 15, 2005

It's the same as being dealt a royal flush in carribean stud poker, which is about 650,000/1.

Ie if you see 650 thousand flops until the river in Holdem, on average one will be a royal flush.

Fishhead · Jul 15, 2005

The Nuts said:
It's the same as being dealt a royal flush in carribean stud poker, which is about 650,000/1.

Ie if you see 650 thousand flops until the river in Holdem, on average one will be a royal flush.

Last month I have two cards to the Royal and the FLOP provided the other three!!

Flopped a ROYAL FLUSH!!

You are correct, the odds are roughly 650,000/1 on doing this with only five cards.

-F-

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

I think the math is:

52X51X50X49X48 divided by 4

Fishhead · Jul 15, 2005

The precise odds are 1 to 649,760 if you prefer to be exact.

-Fishhead-

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

Fishhead said:
The precise odds are 1 to 649,760 if you prefer to be exact.

-Fishhead-

I assume that's the result of the equation ? Being able to think about it and write the equation to figure it out is useful for sports questions also.

Fishhead · Jul 15, 2005

DougJ said:
I assume that's the result of the equation ? Being able to think about it and write the equation to figure it out is useful for sports questions also.

Your equation works out to be over 77 million and change.......not the correct answer.

-F-

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

I'll look at again, did it off the top of my head. I'll find my error !

Fishhead · Jul 15, 2005

DougJ said:
I'll look at again, did it off the top of my head. I'll find my error !

LOL!

OK

:103631605

sherman · Jul 15, 2005

doug, you are a crazy dude....

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

Fishhead said:
LOL!

OK

That's the odds of getting it in order ( as in 10,J,Q,K,A). There are 120 possible orders ( 5X4X3X2X1), so it needs to be divided by 120, resulting in 649,740.

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

I'm still 20 different then Fish !

Fishhead · Jul 15, 2005

DougJ said:
That's the odds of getting it in order ( as in 10,J,Q,K,A). There are 120 possible orders ( 5X4X3X2X1), so it needs to be divided by 120, resulting in 649,740.

:aktion033 :aktion033 :aktion033 :aktion033 :aktion033 :aktion033

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

This shows how hard it is to hit one of those VP jackpots that pays extra for getting it in order. Now you're looking at Fish's number 45,000:1 to hit the royal X120= 5,400,000: 1

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

DougJ said:
I'm still 20 different then Fish !

My number beat's Jeff Fishhead's number !

arty:

http://poker.sportinglife.com/Strategies/story_55895.shtml

Doug · Jul 15, 2005

sherman said:
doug, you are a crazy dude....

Math ability is fundamental in gambling, Sherman ! Show me a great poker player that can't figure pot odds.

Doug · Jul 16, 2005

sherman said:
doug, you are a crazy dude....

I disagree with that ! This site isn't math heavy, since it's now OK to mention other sites without direct links, I'll do that.

At sites like sharpsportsbetting and fezziksplace, guys get really heavy into math, guys like Dreamer and daringly ( who crosses over here). Dreamer is really a math guy.

If Sherman thinks I'm a math geek, he's wrong ! I'm a hack ! I try to convert the word problem ( Royal flush in 5 cards) to an equation but was off by a factor of 120, by not allowing for the 120 possible combinations, I figured out the error. I was on the right thought process.

Guys at these sites will pull up mathematical symbols from their keyboards that I can't even find on mine !

They write programs, run simulations, test theories, have databases.

They go too far, IMO. Sherman doesn't go far enough. I know what I know, and try from that point. I'd like to enhance what I do know.

I try to solve these things, my logic was correct in this problem, but it yielded a result that didn't account for the fact that the order of the cards didn't matter.

Not too bad considering I was tracked right and only thought about it for about 1 minute before posting my math ( without checking it first), then I realised what was wrong quickly.

I'm only a HS graduate !