Help with british open hedge

primetime21+ · Jul 16, 2005

I placed these 3 wagers before the open and wanted some advice on how to hedge and or maximize my potential profits.

Here are the 3 bets:
50 tiger to win 160
25 Olazabal to win 3125
25 Daly to win 2875

Leaderboard looks like this:
tiger -12
Olazabal -10
montgomerie -9
goosen -9
garcia -8

daly is tied for 9th at -6 at pretty much out of it.

Current odds
Tiger -185
Olazabal +800
Montgomerie +1400
goosen +800
garcia +2000

any ideas on how i could play this to my advantage? is it worth it to put 370 to win 200 on tiger presuming that if he doesnt win, i still have olazabal? or would it make sense to put even more down on tiger. He looked awful today and was still able to put together a decent round. Perhaps throwing a few bucks on monty, goosen or garcia?

thanks in advance

Hitman26 · Jul 16, 2005

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ContestHeader colSpan=5>The Open Championship: Odds To Win The Tournament

Will Tiger win the 05 Open?

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title vAlign=top width="14%" bgColor=#000066>Sun 7/17</TD><TD class=wht-title bgColor=#000066 colSpan=4>Will T. Woods Win The Open 2005?

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=wht-title align=middle bgColor=#999999 colSpan=5>Maximum Wager: 12000.00 USD</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>05:00 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>81 Yes</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>-182</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio00>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio00>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD></TD><TD class=main_body_blk>82 No</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>+172</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio01>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio01>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Put 100 bucks on "no" tiger won't win.

That would protect you from a loss.

You could then root like crazy for "Lost my Ball"

Line from Pinnacle by the way......

I would do nothing personally

vegasisstilldead · Jul 16, 2005

Can't get a true hedge as there are too many betting interests with a shot. I think hit man has the right play. If olazabal plays like he did today you may have a live one here.good luck. :103631605

PO69 · Jul 16, 2005

Well I would bet up to about 100,000 that Tiger Woods win it tomorrow!!!

But using your specific example of betting him to win only to hedge is a BIG mistake!! I think that Goosen or Garcia will the tournament MUCH easier than Olazabal will! Goosen is about hot as you can be most of this year!!

But like you, I have Tiger to win it all before the tournament started!!

Tiger will it, but if you really want to hedge, then put $40 on Goosen. But let me tell you, hedging is VERY bad idea 95% of the time

royalfan · Jul 16, 2005

playersonly69 said:
Well I would bet up to about 100,000 that Tiger Woods win it tomorrow!!!

But using your specific example of betting him to win only to hedge is a BIG mistake!! I think that Goosen or Garcia will the tournament MUCH easier than Olazabal will! Goosen is about hot as you can be most of this year!!

But like you, I have Tiger to win it all before the tournament started!!

Tiger will it, but if you really want to hedge, then put $40 on Goosen. But let me tell you, hedging is VERY bad idea 95% of the time

Not sure how you can say Goosen is about as hot you can be most of this year. The guy hasn't won this year and has just one 2nd.

winbet · Jul 16, 2005

playersonly69 said:
Well I would bet up to about 100,000 that Tiger Woods win it tomorrow!!!

But using your specific example of betting him to win only to hedge is a BIG mistake!! I think that Goosen or Garcia will the tournament MUCH easier than Olazabal will! Goosen is about hot as you can be most of this year!!

But like you, I have Tiger to win it all before the tournament started!!

Tiger will it, but if you really want to hedge, then put $40 on Goosen. But let me tell you, hedging is VERY bad idea 95% of the time

Hedging is very bad 100% of the time at the prices your talking about.

Majorcapper · Jul 16, 2005

Heres what I might do if I were you keep just $50 on Woods to win $160 and the $25 on Olazabal now take the $160 you'll win on Woods if he wins and put it on Monty Gooson and Garcia and go for some bigger money and if Woods win you'll break even somnething like this

$50 on Woods to win $160
$25 on Olazabal to win $3125
$25 on Garcia to win $500
$35 on Monty to win $490
$75 on Gooson to win $600

Theres a good chance one of those 5 guys are gonna win it although nothings for certin. If Tiger wins you break even and if any of the over 4 wins you'll be a couple hundred or couple thousand with Olazabal

JayC · Jul 16, 2005

At WSEX Tiger is 63-67, and Olazabal is 8-10.

Sell one Tiger at 63, sell 6 Olazabal at 8. You will collect 63+48, $111. You will then have your three wagers for an $11 credit.

If Tiger wins you will net 160-100=60, plus the 11, that's $71.

If Olazabal wins you will net 3125-600=2525, plus the 11, that's 2536.

If Daly wins you will make 2875+11=2886.

If none of them wins, you will make $11.

royalfan · Jul 16, 2005

Jay C said:
At WSEX Tiger is 63-67, and Olazabal is 8-10.

Sell one Tiger at 63, sell 6 Olazabal at 8. You will collect 63+48, $111. You will then have your three wagers for an $11 credit.

If Tiger wins you will net 160-100=60, plus the 11, that's $71.

If Olazabal wins you will net 3125-600=2525, plus the 11, that's 2536.

If Daly wins you will make 2875+11=2886.

If none of them wins, you will make $11.

Something along these lines is exactly the way to go although I would sell a bit more Olazabal and a bit less Woods.

primetime21+ · Jul 16, 2005

Jay C said:
At WSEX Tiger is 63-67, and Olazabal is 8-10.

Sell one Tiger at 63, sell 6 Olazabal at 8. You will collect 63+48, $111. You will then have your three wagers for an $11 credit.

If Tiger wins you will net 160-100=60, plus the 11, that's $71.

If Olazabal wins you will net 3125-600=2525, plus the 11, that's 2536.

If Daly wins you will make 2875+11=2886.

If none of them wins, you will make $11.