What does it mean when people say "You're falling into a trap, the books want you to

take it"

Can someone please explain to me what a linesmaker actually knows MORE than us?

Example:

Astros at Cards

Clemens vs Carpenter

Total O/U 7

If numerous amounts of valid cappers are saying "Ohhhhhhhhh the books just WANT you to take the under.....Ohhhh Don't fall into this trap"...

When you look at the stats, EVERYTHING ...well mostly......points to two of the best pitchers in the NL going head to head......How can some think that the linemakers are "teasing" them to take the under...

This game has a 2-1 final all over it

Do people actually think the linemaker has access to super secret information?




This kind of thing has always puzzled me

its a myth that so called sharps believe and they get talked into taking the other side.

It's all about the numbers and if your numbers are indicating a play on the under and there's value by all means you should be wagering on the game. Games like the one you have mentioned are very "public" high profile game.........two good pitchers will attract plenty of action from the "public" hence these are so called trap games. Line is sharp. Linemakers have taking into account that this game will see heavy action. Linemakers sharper then the majority...... 95% of bettors?.............I think so.

Some games will look like so called "traps" when bookmakers try to get money back on one side or the other. When a book is havy to the favorite say, they have to offer a slightly more attactive number to draw out dog money, thus looking like they are "begging" players to bet the dog.


wil.

I think its a myth and its only noted AFTER it goes the wrong way...anyone ever remember a TRAP game that wins?

We will hear before game "this looks like a trap" , we never hear "wow, I was lucky to win that trap game" only thing we will hear afterwards " I got caught in that trap game" if player loses.

A baseball game with two middle relievers starting and the total is 9.5 and the final score ends up being 3-2.

A college football game where the favorite should win by 60 and they win by 14 because they have conference rival the following week.

I don't think it's a myth at all.

In my experience a trap is when the lines are such that you feel it's the best value you've ever seen in your entire life and you'd bet your grandmother's left eye on the contest and it's a no-brainer and, in fact, it would have been a no brainer with the game costing 40% more to wager OR 8 more football points and so you get a funny feeling about it and wonder if somehow they are not pulling money by setting up false expectations with the line. I believe I have seen enough instances of it to justify the concept.

Just a short example: Say Philadephia Eagles are playing the Cleveland Browns.

Say you believe the point spread should be Philadelphia -11 or so. You strongly believe that and have that value in your mind. Now, say you see the line at -9 Will that make you wet your pants and scream with delight? No. Will it cause you to take the Eagles? Yes. Win or lose, no problem. You saw value and took it.

Now, say you see the line at -4.5 You do scream and depending on your continence you may or may not wet your pants. It's too good to be true, you say to yourself. There is NO WAY Philadelphia doesn't beat Cleveland by 5 or more!!! Well, in these cases that you see something so far out of whack to defy explanation (by very basic handicapping) I believe there is something going on that is not public knowledge (statistical in nature or maybe news/factual in nature) and the people that set the odds are trying to pull larger than proportionate money to the Eagles and believe that the Eagles are not going to cover....hence I believe the oddsmakers in these cases are not trying to find the happy 50/50 action balance.

They are actually gambling here too and they are very good at it. They don't do this very often but in these cases they are trying to 'tempt' money one way. When you see situations like these, either don't play or play the side opposite. It is not a myth. My mantra when I see a far out of whack line/spread: THERE IS NO EASY MONEY in this world of ours. THERE IS NO EASY MONEY in this world of ours...... Don't lose grandma's other eye....don't lose grandma's other eye..... tulsa

MY book's OVER/UNDER on this is 6.5

ZZZSpeedster, you say that you see a 2-1 game, right? Well, let's add one or so runs to each team. 3-2 wouldn't be out of the ordinary either. Now we're in the ballpark of 6.5 runs. This is a LOW O/U at 6.5 or 7. That doesn't look like a trap to me. If the O/U were at 8 or more, THEN I would have my alarm going off. A trap to me indicates that the line is so far out of whack that you just can't see it going the other way in a million years. So, if 3-2 isn't crazy out of whack for a final score then neither would be 3-3 which then forces us to at least 7. I just don't see that 6.5 or 7 is far out of whack since it is really the lower end of the range of O/U's. I don't remember ever seeing a 5.5 O/U.

I believe this O/U is fairly priced. tulsa

I forgot to iterate my conclusion to this: If you think the runs will be less than 6.5 or 7 then take the UNDER as you have no trap to fear on this play. tulsa