Monday EASY MONEY: TB/BOS OVER 10

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

Best play of the day here. No fancy math for me on this, just common sense matchup. Two medicore pitchers in Boston. Two suspect bullpens in Boston. TB offense actually isn't that bad, the team sucks b/c of pitching, not because of their offense. TB will score at least 4-5 runs and Boston will handle the rest.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Boston score double digits in this spot after Sunday's loss.

VegasVic · Jul 18, 2005

I like your pick but I wouldn’t call Kazmir mediocre. However he’s the kind of pitcher the Sox can hit without difficulty and I wonder how sharp he‘ll be after ten days rest. Putting Gathright in leadoff against RHP and Crawford in the two hole will produce runs for Tampa Bay the rest of the year.

anpyanks · Jul 18, 2005

i like it as well however i get nervous when it looks too easy just like that yanks-sox last nite 11 1/2.... looked like a gift and we saw what happened.... just seems everytime everyone is aboard we all sink.... good luck to us all on this one though....

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

VegasVic said:
I like your pick but I wouldn’t call Kazmir mediocre. However he’s the kind of pitcher the Sox can hit without difficulty and I wonder how sharp he‘ll be after ten days rest. Putting Gathright in leadoff against RHP and Crawford in the two hole will produce runs for Tampa Bay the rest of the year.

Are you saying Kazmir is better than medicore??

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

anpyanks said:
i like it as well however i get nervous when it looks too easy just like that yanks-sox last nite 11 1/2.... looked like a gift and we saw what happened.... just seems everytime everyone is aboard we all sink.... good luck to us all on this one though....

I don't think last night was as much of a "gift" as everyone thought.... Wakefield always has potential to have a decent outing and Leiter was a huge wildcard.

And Meals is an UNDER umpire, averaging only 8.68 rpg. That's how Leiter got 8 K's.

I have some other tech angles but these are only small probabilities that I look at to highlight a game for me. Kazmir's GB/FB ratio has taken a turn for the worse L3 starts. Whenever I spot a fundamental shift in something like that over 3 or more starts I think something is "not right" with that pitcher. A "not right" pitcher giving up more fly balls than ground balls at Boston vs. this lineup is a disaster waiting to happen.

I think it will be an easy cover.

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

I made it a 2-unit wager based on a play by another respected capper buddy of mine. I have 4 dimes on it now.

He has a night game at Fenway vs. lefties angle that is 6-0 (small sample size but leaning towards my play).

He also pointed out the obvious that Boston & TB bullpens are the 2nd and 3rd worst (5.59 ERA and 5.65 ERA), only AZ is worse at 5.87 ERA. He has an OVER angle when starting pitchers both have > 1.40 WHIP and > 4.50 ERA and both bullpens are > 5.00 ERA. Minimum 60 IP for starters. Someone run the numbers...

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

Anyone else also on this one and got the overnight line, we gotta love the line movement on the OVER! 20-25 cents of STEAM, baby!

dottom · Jul 18, 2005

I love the action on this line, I bumped it up to 3 units, but had to pay juice on my 3rd unit.

3 cappers I respect (not on this site) were on the OVER (before the steam). That's good enough for me to bump it up to a 3-unit wager.

Score early & score often! :103631605