MLB Wed, Jul 20, 2005
MLB Hot Lines: Wednesday`s best odds
Julian Dickinson
Yankees and Rangers to play under 12 ½ runs
Don’t be a sucker. Every oddsmaker in the game knows what you’re thinking when you see the pitching matchup in this one. The Yankees are in such dire straits, they’ve brought in Aaron Small, who hasn’t started a game since the Clinton administration. The Rangers counter with Joaquin Benoit, a reliever by trade with only one start on his record this season.
Every square bettor in America is going to be jumping on the over like a Kenny Rogers on a camera man, but as the Rangers’ ace should have done that infamous day; just stop, relax and try to think rationally. Are we in Colorado? No? Then how can you justify a total that’s a full run higher than either team has seen all season? Nobody knows how either pitcher will react to this situation (look what Al Leiter did the other night), but when you see a number this high, there’s only one way to go: under.
A’s (-110) to beat the Angels
Paul Byrd is having a stellar season. He’s helped the Angels to a 13-5 record on his pitching days this season and he’s done it with style. But the A’s know how to clip this Byrd’s wings. The six-year veteran has faced Oakland four times in his career, losing three games and compiling a 10.52 ERA. In this matchup, you’ve got to go with the proven performer, Barry Zito. He’s found his rhythm after a shaky start to the season and has put together five straight wins, including two as an underdog. The former Cy Young winner has a 1.50 ERA in those starts and his left-handed delivery should be effective at Angel Stadium where Anaheim is only hitting .238 against southpaws.
Reds and Cubs to play over nine runs
Nine runs? No problem. At a launch pad like Great American Ballpark, these two teams couldn’t keep it under that total if they tried. Even with Kerry Wood and his 98 mph fastball bearing down on Cincinnati batters and even though this is the highest total he’s seen in three months, you still have to give the over a long look tonight. Wood really hasn’t been that dominant on the road. He’s got a 5.40 ERA away from Wrigley and a 3-1 over/under ratio. The last time he was in Cincinnati, he gave up five earned runs in six innings in what turned into a 7-6 loss that easily topped the 9-run total.
And at the plate, it’s not just Derek Lee creating offense for the Cubs anymore. A .332 team average over their last 10 games has helped them to hit the over in eight of those contests. Even with a streak of eight straight starts playing under, Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang shouldn’t stand in the way of that trend. He’s used to seeing totals much higher than this one and three of his four career starts versus Chicago have played over.
Astros (-140) to beat the Pirates
This looks like a high price to pay for a road team, but the way Andy Pettitte has been throwing, he’s worth it. Pettitte has been virtually untouchable in recent starts, allowing no more than one earned run in his last five outings. That was good enough for four wins, even with Houston’s undependable offense. Pittsburgh has never been able to hit Pettitte and, with the way he’s throwing now, Jason Bay might be having flashbacks of the Home Run Derby tonight.
Josh Fogg, on the other hand, has an ugly history against Houston. His worst performance this season was a four-inning, eight-run debacle that took place in the midst of the Astro’s offensive slump. He has a career 10.66 ERA against Houston and he hasn’t beaten them since April 28, 2004.
MLB Hot Lines: Wednesday`s best odds
Julian Dickinson
Yankees and Rangers to play under 12 ½ runs
Don’t be a sucker. Every oddsmaker in the game knows what you’re thinking when you see the pitching matchup in this one. The Yankees are in such dire straits, they’ve brought in Aaron Small, who hasn’t started a game since the Clinton administration. The Rangers counter with Joaquin Benoit, a reliever by trade with only one start on his record this season.
Every square bettor in America is going to be jumping on the over like a Kenny Rogers on a camera man, but as the Rangers’ ace should have done that infamous day; just stop, relax and try to think rationally. Are we in Colorado? No? Then how can you justify a total that’s a full run higher than either team has seen all season? Nobody knows how either pitcher will react to this situation (look what Al Leiter did the other night), but when you see a number this high, there’s only one way to go: under.
A’s (-110) to beat the Angels
Paul Byrd is having a stellar season. He’s helped the Angels to a 13-5 record on his pitching days this season and he’s done it with style. But the A’s know how to clip this Byrd’s wings. The six-year veteran has faced Oakland four times in his career, losing three games and compiling a 10.52 ERA. In this matchup, you’ve got to go with the proven performer, Barry Zito. He’s found his rhythm after a shaky start to the season and has put together five straight wins, including two as an underdog. The former Cy Young winner has a 1.50 ERA in those starts and his left-handed delivery should be effective at Angel Stadium where Anaheim is only hitting .238 against southpaws.
Reds and Cubs to play over nine runs
Nine runs? No problem. At a launch pad like Great American Ballpark, these two teams couldn’t keep it under that total if they tried. Even with Kerry Wood and his 98 mph fastball bearing down on Cincinnati batters and even though this is the highest total he’s seen in three months, you still have to give the over a long look tonight. Wood really hasn’t been that dominant on the road. He’s got a 5.40 ERA away from Wrigley and a 3-1 over/under ratio. The last time he was in Cincinnati, he gave up five earned runs in six innings in what turned into a 7-6 loss that easily topped the 9-run total.
And at the plate, it’s not just Derek Lee creating offense for the Cubs anymore. A .332 team average over their last 10 games has helped them to hit the over in eight of those contests. Even with a streak of eight straight starts playing under, Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang shouldn’t stand in the way of that trend. He’s used to seeing totals much higher than this one and three of his four career starts versus Chicago have played over.
Astros (-140) to beat the Pirates
This looks like a high price to pay for a road team, but the way Andy Pettitte has been throwing, he’s worth it. Pettitte has been virtually untouchable in recent starts, allowing no more than one earned run in his last five outings. That was good enough for four wins, even with Houston’s undependable offense. Pittsburgh has never been able to hit Pettitte and, with the way he’s throwing now, Jason Bay might be having flashbacks of the Home Run Derby tonight.
Josh Fogg, on the other hand, has an ugly history against Houston. His worst performance this season was a four-inning, eight-run debacle that took place in the midst of the Astro’s offensive slump. He has a career 10.66 ERA against Houston and he hasn’t beaten them since April 28, 2004.
